In general I've got close to 100% success at avoiding major disasters, but also tend to be a little bit jumpy on the trigger and sometimes forecast disasters that do not happen. ("A little bit" meaning about a 30-40% false-positive rate, not a perma-bear.) I also usually predict a higher severity and longer duration than actually occurs.
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35087159
I consider climate-change to be another potential civilization ending event in that it's going to create ripple effects that will likely lead to present-day governments falling. But I'm not referring to it as an effect here - TBH, I think the consequences of climate change are already locked in at this point and we're going to face them regardless of what we do.
I mean "civilization ending" as in "the rules are unknown or non-existent". As in, our civilization ends, not civilization for all time ends. There will be new forms of cooperation and political organization - I suspect they'll grow out of local governments.