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Comment by clobmclob | Hacker News Reader

I've been thinking this for a while now. But I don't think that means the disruption is done. Think about how TikTok has disrupted Facebook or how Salesforce has disrupted Oracle. All of the big tech incumbents today also have lots of lots of older product infrastructure (Maps for Google, Dynamics for Microsoft, Mac Pros for Apple, etc) that they must maintain which is also difficult and risky to eliminate. But that infrastructure also imposes a drag on development for new features and capabilities. It is possible to build something simpler and smaller with higher profitability than Google Search (as one relevant example).

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> higher profitability than Google Search

Smaller and simpler I buy. Higher profitability I don't. Every serious analysis of this has suggested that ChatGPT is a loss leader, for example.

I'd similarly be very skeptical of claims that Kagi has better margins that Google Search (and I doubt even the Kagi founder would make that claim with a straight face):

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30822830

Kagi is losing money hand over fist currently, which is why they're moving towards a controversial pay as you go model.

I was the one who made the case to the founder back in 2021, likely along with several others, who didn't think providing unlimited search for a flat rate had any path to profitability.

TikTok is just the current trend. Remember "vines"? I don't think TikTok offers something truly disruptive. They had the right timing and marketing for a specific audience. In a couple of years it will be something else.

Vines had to make money distributing video.

TikTok (Douyin 抖音) can just lose money and have it's losses covered by the Chinese Government, as long as it keeps broadcasting the right message abroad.

What is the message?

I personally know someone who used a Magic Eraser to whiten their teeth after watching a TikTok video. That is a terrible idea for so many reasons. Messages like those possibly benefit America's enemies by weakening the populace, whether through sketchy medical advice, promoting risky behavior like challenges, or suggesting illegal activities like hot-wiring cars.

That sounds very much like Facebook ads.

Your suggestion is that the Chinese government is subsidizing tik-tok in order to increase the amount of crackpot medical advice and other scams Americans are subject to, in order to weaken Americans?

I am pretty confident Americans are quite capable of selling plenty of crackpot medical advice and monetizing viral scams to ourselves on our own, thank you very much. It may be something we are in fact #1 at, with no sign of diminished capacity.

TikTok is disruptive and has replaced other disruptive technologies. And I'm sure, that not a few computer nerds are busy programming the next time and life sink.

It's a competition for how much man is willing to flush his existence down the toilet.

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