State of the web: Flash vs HTML5
piehead.com
piehead.com
I do believe that any programmer should be using standards but there are still questions when it comes to video.
It's a year or two later now and nothing stirs disappointment quite like the realization that that giant, black, unresponsive rectangle on a website is Flash bringing the Android browser to its knees. I have never seen a game that successfully used Flash on the browser. There is nothing more detrimental to the web browsing experience on Android than running across a page with Flash content.
Sure, 1/4 of users might experience problems with HTML5. But what really matters is what percentage of your target market will experience issues with the HTML5 that you use on your site.
Conversely, if you're targeting smartphone users then you should probably be developing a mobile version of your site anyway. And if you are doing that, then having Flash on your main site won't create such a problem with reaching mobile users. Not that it doesn't get rid of the need to make sure your site degrades gracefully.
Also, define 'wealth of capabilities', opposed to 'does not currently have some Flash features', as the reverse can also be said just as easily.
As for 3D, WebGL looks capable enough to me (but that may be because I already know OpenGL)