should I quit my job -> 5.203
should I start my own business -> 5.256
should I propose -> -5.125 should I quit my job -> 5.203
should I start my own business -> 5.256
should I propose -> -5.125Also, based on the GP’s formula, maybe the effects look large because people don’t do what the coin tells them very often so you are dividing by a small number?
The size of the effect is much larger than I'd expect.
> Also, based on the GP’s formula, maybe the effects look large because people don’t do what the coin tells them very often so you are dividing by a small number?
I don't think so. The same "small number" exists implicitly in the numerator, since (EV[H | heads] - EV[H | tails]) = 0 for anyone ignoring the coin.
For example, imagine quitting really does make you 5 points happier, but a random 99% of people ignore the coin, and 1% follow it.
The numerator would be (EV[H | heads] - EV[H | tails]) = 0.99*0 + 0.01*5, since happiness is unaffected by coin toss for people ignoring the coin. The denominator would be 0.01, so we'd get B_wald=5 as desired.