Germany has the economic strengths America once boasted
latimes.com
latimes.com
From a macroeconomic perspective, Germany is "successful" because it kept real wages low relative to other Eurozone countries. In the old times this would have lead to a strong appreciation of the Mark. This balancing out via exchange rates is no longer possible within the Euro, which is why German exports are priced very competitively in the international market. This leads to high German net exports, while the Eurozone as a whole has a more or less balanced international trade.
It is immediately obvious, though, that not every country can be a net exporter. Somebody has to be a net importer, and so Germany cannot be taken as a role model for the world as a whole.
The other dark side of the German approach is that it makes the internal imbalances in the Eurozone, and hence the crisis, worse, and the majority of the German population doesn't really profit from it as real wages have been stagnant and even decreasing for the last decade or so.
Sure not every country can always be a net exporter, but many simply do not have competitive businesses in traded goods and services, and will end up either in debt, or with huge falls in real wages and living standards.
It's also about Germany's proximity to former Communist countries in Central and Eastern Europe (both geographically and culturally). It helped put the pressure on German workers which otherwise are heavily unionized ("you have to agree to lower wages, otherwise we'll move everything to Poland or Romania") and it also provides German-based factories with cheap assembly parts which for the most part are produced in said countries.
Just as an anecdote, my older brother was just hired as a truck-driver, and he just came back from a 4-day trip from Germany (we live in Romania) where he delivered some assembled parts for German car factories. He was paid some 300 Euros for the whole trip, and while I'm too lazy to search for how much a German truck driver would have earned for the same job, I'm pretty sure it would be at least 5 times more.
http://www.gehalt-tipps.de/Gehaltsvergleich/Gehalt/Lkw-Fahre...
They fool employees by making the employer pay half of it, though - which of course doesn't make a real difference, but people are less likely to notice.
I think the actual rate is something like 14% of your income, capped at 700 or 800€ (not sure). As I am self-employed, unfortunately by law they are required to assume a minimum income that might be higher than what I actually earn (completely absurd and unfair regulation to discourage self-employment).
I would argue that €421 for 4 days work in Germany and €300 for 4 days of work in Romania isn't a huge difference, and if there is it is probably to the advantage to the Romanian (cheaper rent, food etc).
For instance, if I had the same wage after taxes that I have now and I lived in Algeria (I use this as an example as I have spent a lot of time in that country), and my standard of living would be unchanged then I would lower my rent by about 60-80% (depending on where in the country), lower my energy costs about 90%, grocery costs would be lowered by about 50-65% and so on.
There are a few possible explanations to your blatantly wrong assertions here. One could be that you are simply as naive to think that a European truck driver would make €1500 for 4 days of work (if that where so I would be leaving my, in relation to the number you provided, low paying work as an IT consultant in a heart beat, €7500/month drool).
Another more cynic explanation would be that you are trying to spread some poor-me-I'm-from-an-ex-communist-country-I'm-so-poor propaganda, hopefully that isn't so. The flip side to that is that the former Eastern block countries are effectively out competing European haulage companies, with the effects most visible in the countries with the highest salaries. For instance, in Sweden, most small family owned transport companies have either filed for bankruptcy or been bought by larger companies, much due to the increasing price dumping caused by Eastern European companies. And increasingly the Swedish haulage companies are hiring Eastern European drivers as contractors, as this is cheaper than hiring Swedish drivers. This, and other similar cases for instance cheap builders, cheap ship yard workers, steel workers and so on, means that many Eastern European countries may be poorer than Western European countries, but the work force have a lot of work opportunities, especially the Eastern Europeans that are in the European Union. Work opportunities that are disappearing in Western Europe.
* That is, about 40h a week give or take according to work schedule in accordance to what the law says about continuous work hours and obligated rest between shifts. For instance it is possible that a truck driver can be scheduled to work 56 hours a week, the regulations are very strict in Europe (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Truck_driver#European_Union)
How did you come to that number? Is it from extrapolation on the minimum wage? Because truck drivers don't get the minimum wage, they are compensated very well. This €420 would more likely be something like €1000 for a 5 week trip, or more.
Oh, an important distinction though is if the truck driver just drives the truck in some city (low normal wage), or if he's making cross-country and cross-europe deliveries (much much higher).
http://www.lonestatistik.se/loner.asp/yrke/Lastbilschauffor-...
This means the total wage of the truck driver here would be about €511.30 for 4 days of work.
My personal opinion is that talking about wages and comparing them between countries is very difficult, many factors play into the equation; cost of living, food, energy, health care, taxes and so on are big components of this. My point was though, and still is, that claiming that a German truck driver makes €7500 in a 20 day period (which is five times what paganel's brother would have made if he had worked 20 days) is just ridiculous. I claimed earlier that I would quit my, in comparison to €7500, low paying IT job if that was the case, and I think I actually would.
I hope I'm not :) Anyway, maybe I was wrong in my multiplication by a certain factor, but you have to keep in mind that my brother (and his co-workers) only make these kind of trips every 2 weeks or so, so assuming he makes an average of 2 and half such trips per month it's around ~800 euro per month. Which is actually a pretty good salary around these parts, only that most likely most of this money is paid in some manner as to avoid taxes (there was a post from some Hungarian guy a couple of weeks ago explaining why that's the only viable solution for a small to medium company around these parts of Europe).
And regarding the "disappearance" of job opportunities for Western workers... well, something has got to give, you cannot have a free market for goods without a free market for labor. Meaning you cannot have Ikea stores in those "poor" East-European countries with no import charges attached to its merchandise without giving said East-European workers the chance to improve their lives in Ikea's host country' or Nokia's, or BMW's. Otherwise it's just old, plain economic colonialism, and that's bad.
When you look at that relative change, a pretty stark picture emerges. See e.g. http://www.nachdenkseiten.de/upload/pdf/110207_HF+FS_Eurolan...
The slides are in German, unfortunately, but the graphs should be fairly clear. The first few concentrate on inflation measures. On slide 5, you see the relative development of nominal labor costs. Note in particular the deviation from the inflation target of the ECB. It is clear that Germany must accept its fair share of the blame.
The irony is that from a social and moral perspective, one could argue that adjusting wages throughout the Eurozone is a good thing. Unfortunately, that has created the current imbalances on the way, and is therefore at least partially to blame for the very high unemployment in the southern Euro nations.
I wonder whether politicians understood the implications of monetary union one decaded ago - their dealings with it really look genuinely clueless. I am pretty sure the export industry did.
This is a pretty well established fact as far as I know.
People don't remember the political climate at the time: 20 years ago, when the Euro was planned and sanctioned, Germany was still divided, and West Germany was the top dog in economic terms among European countries (even more so than today) while most other countries (including France and UK) were fighting a recession. German public opinion didn't want to partake from the almighty Deutsche Mark, which was a rock in troubled seas (the British Pound was crashing, the French Franc was weak, the Italian Lira was losing 20% every 10 years, etc etc); French and Italian elites thought that a common currency would have allowed them to harness the German industrial strength, basically helping themselves to low interest rates they wouldn't have enjoyed otherwise.
The German establishment mostly saw the Euro as a straight-jacket, a burden to accept in order to bring about their own reunification, which otherwise would have been opposed across Europe (a reunited Germany would have been dangerously powerful on its own).
As it happens, it turned out better for them than for other members; this is why they keep insisting on a monetary approach to public policy that will keep others down, at least until this suites them.
Everywhere I went, I'd ask people what they thought about the coming European Union. To a person, they were all cautiously supportive, but would also say "But I don't trust the Germans." Everyone expected the Germans would have designs on controlling the thing, and likely the ability to do it. Even the Germans seemed to expect it.
These were the proverbial people on the street, so I'm guessing everyone pretty much knew how it was going to go in the long run.
The real game-changer was the rushed enlargement. Now Germany can count on a political bloc of countries directly depending on the German economy, and for anyone else it's much more difficult to steer the boat with so many people on board.
Now Germany has high debt, but was dealing with this problem years ago to keep in under control. More has to be done, but we are further than we thought.
The industry is more competitive in terms of delivery capability, production technology and products.
The decentral structure of the country enabled competition within the country - between Berlin, Munich, Stuttgart, Köln, Düsseldorf, Leipzig, Dresden, ... there is no such central structure like in France or the UK.
Key was to keep employment high. Youth unemployment is very low. General unemployment is on a 20 year low. This kept people confident. Confident that they have enough to weather this economic crisis. Germans save more, they speculate less and many prefer renting instead of owning (and being in debt).
There were some mistakes made (like some of the German banking system failed), but in general it looks okay.
Trying to understand - you mean it is not possible for other Euro countries (who also use Euro as their currency)? But does it really matter for them? They still have to come up with Euros somehow. If their only way to make Euros is to sell Olives, they might still have difficulties to afford a high end German car...
As for the net importer stuff - I think some countries are just borrowing heavily, and I think Germany has been blamed for lending the money to those borrowers that in turn fuels it's exports. However, I fail to see what is so evil about it: either those borrowers become insolvent, in which case Germany gave away it's exports for free, or they can pay eventually. Also, why blame the money lender and not the borrower?
By way of example, Italy used to devalue the currency from time to time to give a bit of a boost to exports. This, for better or worse, is no longer possible.
Personally I am always for more transparency, so maybe it is a good thing if the sneaky way to conduct economics goes away.
http://johnhcochrane.blogspot.com/2012/01/should-greece-deva...
Also, it looks like http://SrlFacile.org made it in front of the right people, as the recent liberalization package includes a simplified form of limited liability company which requires no 'social capital' and no notary to form.
The psychological thing isn't something to discount too lightly though: wages tend to be 'sticky' in that it's very difficult, generally, to get people to take lower wages.
I hope Italy gets back on track, it's such a beautiful country.
However, the incentives currently in place are such that for many, their best course of action is to go abroad.
For instance: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federico_Faggin
One important difference is in domestic contracts. Let's say you are an employee in a country that uses # as currency, and your current monthly wage is 1000#. You pay 500# of that every month for fixed contracts such as rent, health insurance, electricity, telephony, etc.
Now you are faced with two possible scenarios: A) There is CPI inflation of 10%. B) Your wages are cut by 10%.
In both scenarios, your nominal wages are down to 900#. But when you look at it more closely, there is a significant difference.
In scenario A, you still receive (nominal) 1000#. Of those, you pay 500# to your fixed contracts, and you use the remaining 500# for consumption goods, whose real value compared to before is now only 450#.
In scenario B, you receive (nominal) 900#. Of those, you pay 500# to your fixed contracts, and you have 400# remaining to buy consumption goods.
Clearly, inflation (scenario A) is better for you. Devaluation of the currency by 10% would be even better, because currency devaluation rarely punches through entirely to consumer prices: only imported goods are affected directly, after all.
Now you could argue that in the long run, those fixed contracts like rent will also be adjusted. But there is a huge difference in pressure and thus power between the scenarios: when your wages are decreased, you are immediately worse off as an employee, and it is up to you personally to try to get a better deal on the rent, forcing the landlord to decrease their rent in turn. In the case of inflation, however, it is up to the landlord to raise rents, something for which there are often significant legal hurdles.
Most employees probably don't think these scenarios through, but the gut reflex ends up being correct in this case: for employees, currency devaluation is better than nominal wage reduction.
(Of course, everything I've said changes for somebody who has significant nominal assets; but then, it would probably be incorrect to classify them as an employee.)
But then another question: suppose the governments wants to make it's goods/exports cheaper, maybe there would still be lots of other possibilities, like changing/lowering taxes. Obviously still more complicated than just printing more money, but still.
Theoretically it should be balanced out by workers moving to more prosperous parts of Europe (where there are more jobs) - and the treaties do specify free movement of labour. I don't know whether we've yet seen an influx of Greek workers moving to Germany, though.
You are correct that the Germans have taken advantage of macro-economic imbalances created by the eurozone, but why was it Germany and not France or Greece that has prospered? What is unique about Germany? I would argue it is their culture of hard work, efficient businesses and financial restraint. They do things the right way... why fault them for it?
http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=x%2B+sin+x%2C+x%2Bcos+x
just cherry pick your reporting dates, everyone is a net exporter.
I'm only familiar with the automotive part of it, but companies like INA Schaeffler (70k own employees + 220k Continental) are effectively owned by a mom and son team. Bosch (300k+ employees) is owned by a charitable foundation and a family. Volkswagen Group (400k employees) is for a large part owned by the state and had until recently a law protecting their voting rights. (I seem to recall the unions own part of it too, but I couldn't find a good reference. Maybe it was another carmaker?)
Outside the automotive industry, conglomerates like Siemens (>360k employees) also seem to have been family businesses for the longest times, judging by all the von Siemens that served as board members or CEO.
I'd hazard to say that these ownership structures allow German businesses to plan for long term growth rather than quarterly earnings and current stock values.
I have no idea why or how that situation came to be though.
Surely that makes it possible for our economy to plan really far into the future.
The reality is, you can have two identical government or business systems, and one can be a complete failure and the other can be wildly successful. It comes down to culture. America's culture is rotting and has been for decades. Sloth and greed dominate, and that's a bad combination (people do less and expect more).
My post talks about family owned businesses, which is pretty much as far away from state owned as possible. I gave Volkswagen as an additional example where there's limits on the voting rights of public stock.
the government system in America owns 45% of the entire US economy
I'm talking about real corporations, that in some circumstances are running circles around their American counterparts. This 45% of the economy you talk about is almost entirely pure "losses" that are almost-but-not-entirely compensated by taxes right? The comparison is silly.
What people place value on, and consequentially how people relate to eachother, how they value eachother, whether they respect the rights of their fellow citizens, and on and on. All critical aspects of a culture.
A nation's culture is made up of the individual beliefs & values of each person. And all of those things determine the social and economic fabric / makeup of said nation.
It will be interesting to see whether that will turn the tables again.
There was recently a documentary in the UK that detailed the success of the mittelstand and questioned whether or not it could be implemented in the UK, however I don't think that it can. The difference between Germany/UK and Germany/US is Germans give a shit about Germany.
Companies have better relationships with unions, with some union representatives sitting on the board.
Companies work with schools and colleges to train the workforce they need.
If people are made unemployed the state pays for their retraining if need be.
They have better quality hi-tech manufacturing jobs which are much less likely to be outsourced.
The mittelstand tends to care more about long term growth than being held randsom for growth in only the next quarter.
Finally, culturally, there's less of a dog eat dog attitude within German society. The UK/US boasts this kind of "fuck you I'm rich now" attitude which sees people exploit the system and then do everything they can to destroy it once it isn' needed anymore.
Edit: I also wanted to add that with unions being board members they are allowed to see the books of the company which helps them negotiate realistic deals for their members. Without board members having access to a company's books can result in unrealistic demands by the unions or the board lying about the availability of funds.
They use them as 1 Euro Workslaves too. The unemploymend system in germany is very bad compaired to other countries (switzerland, sweden ...)
These kind of politics are probably the main reason, why Germany is currently relatively well economically. They permit to avoid large overhead costs in economically uncertain/fluctuating times.
Why companies do that? Large companies in Germany are run 50% by the unions and only 50% by the stockholders. If you want to lay of people, the union representatives have to agree. That avoids that the CEO takes simple shortcuts like mass layoff to save some money shortterm for the upcoming quarterly report. They are forced to considder the wellbeing of the employees as well, because the employees' union partially run the business.
In this case it was easy to see. The economic crisis before had seen a more layoffs. So companies knew the effect and they wanted to avoid it. They wanted to keep their workforce to avoid the cost of rehiring well trained people, to be able to take advantage from the recovery as early as possible, etc.
It was not just the Unions. Even the conservative government also was part of it.
A practical example of this is the Cologne-based Toyota F1 racing team [1] of a few years back. Despite having one of the largest budgets and workforces in the sport, the team was never successful at all, never having won a race. Common wisdom among racing pundits was that the workforce was inefficient, and just not cut out to be a top-rank F1 team. But the labor practices of Germany prevented Toyota from getting rid of the deadwood to build up a better-performing team. The end result was that Toyota threw in the towel and got out of the sport altogether.
Of course, other examples in the OP show different results. But the absolute meritocracy of top-tier sports is hard to argue against. I would submit that it's a purer example (although "anecdote" isn't the singular of "data"), since the intrigues of international politics and voodoo of macro economics may obscure much of the truth.
In any case, my point would still stand. The Toyota F1 team was understood to be one of the top-funded teams, but was unable to compete at a level commensurate with their budget.
(I don't remember what the actual percentage was, but it was in the 10-20 range.)
Of course not, it depends highly on the ability of members of a group to colaborate. And that ability is on decline in the US since the mid-60s according to an extensive study in: (Book) Robert Putnam, "Bowling Alone".
In Germany they would usually vote against a layoff because they will not only think of themselves but of their co-workers and their families.
Basic unemployment benefits are quite low, but still enough keep you warm, fed and clothed. In fact, you get paid more than I had while studying. You are not forced to liquidate property that doesn't exceed reasonable limits. Loosing your job doesn't bring you on the edge of being homeless.
That is asuming your employer has been paying its NI properly my previous one was not and I got nothing.
As someone in one of those other Western-European countries, I can only say this is a good thing. If unemployment benefits are so high that the cost of child care, transportation, etc dwarfs the extra income from a real job, you aren't going to work.
Harz IV was harsh, but it allowed the Germans to get their finances right, and they did so timely. Every other European country will face much more serious cuts or go bankrupt. (Or pray to the Germans to pay for their excessive lifestyle, which is what's happening now)
How much is social insurance in other countries, if it exists at all (does it exist in the US?)?.
It has a bad reputation, but I always thought that Hartz IV is actually quite high. The numbers that are being floated in the press seem very low, but they always forget to mention that on top of that the state also pays the rent and health insurance for Hartz IV recipients. Where the system runs into trouble is when it sabotages the recipients through bureaucracy, for example some are being forced to move to a smaller flat even if it is more expensive. If they don't find something suitable in time or are simply unable to keep up with the bureaucracy, they might end up on the street. In that sense it is rather demeaning to people, but I think the amount of benefits received is probably OK.
Healthcare still works very well for publicly insured people, although I worry for the future and it has some annoyances. But for example I personally am scared of going private because I worry that physicians will do too much useless stuff to my body just to make money (I know enough stories of that kind). Sometimes more is less...
Why the downvote? While Germany has a fine military, its the US that traditionally protected Europe from the Soviets. Germany has the luxury of a 1.4% spending of their GDP, while the US hass 4.8%. That 3% frees up a lot of money for social services.
To not mention this in a comparison between the US and Germany is a glaring omission.
Germany spends enough money to reasonably protect it's own borders, as do most of Germany's other allies. The US overspending on military is insane, and has fuck all to do with "defense".
(Apologies for the over-used terms like "imperialist" and "military-industrial complex", but they seem appropriate in this context.)
The fall of the Berlin wall is now over twenty years ago. Germany has consequently reduced its military. The US has expanded it extensively in the last decade (two wars, etc.).
The number of US military installations is now mostly of FORMER installations:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_Army_inst...
Actually, the taxes per capita are about the same in the US and Germany. In fact, they're about the same in all of the major western countries. (Canada is actually a bit behind the US.) Average tax rates are lower in the US, but that's because the US has higher GDP per capita.
Therefore,if Germans get better services, it isn't from more tax money. Given that, it's absurd to think that US public services would improve given more money....
No - defence doesn't explain the difference.
I do agree with you that in the case of US public services, money is not the real issue.
For another interesting bit (namely, what country has the most progressive tax system), see http://gregmankiw.blogspot.com/2011/03/what-nation-has-most-... and http://www.themoneyillusion.com/?p=4626 .
Short version - revenues aren't rates and both spending and gdp matter. (And, some assets aren't taxed - a huge fraction of Warren Buffet's fortune will never be taxed and none of his "I think rich people should pay more" proposals will change that. He's pushing taxes that other people will pay, often folks who he's trying to buy from.)
What's interesting is the article on Germany provides a more positive message. "Just a little less consumerism, a little bigger social net, and more vocational training, and everything will be all right." The article on China was, "It ain't coming back."
My bias is the New York Times article more accurately captures the truth for high tech. It's a game of systems and clusters, and it's hard to see us winning. There's little competitive advantage any more, except at our top engineering schools. Perhaps we're better off becoming the world's best farmers?
It's unlikely Asia will get the same monopoly on building Western cars it has on high tech, simply because cars are difficult to transport.
Consider how many cars you can fit on a container ship compared to how many motherboards.
Another, more assailable, advantage is the reputation Germany has for building cars (the phrase "German Engineering" comes to mind). When someone is about to splash £80k on a Mercedes, they want to know it was built to perfection, and not in a sweatshop which, true or not, is an image commonly ascribed to Asian factories.
I live in a house somewhat newer than the house the Kruger family lives in in Germany, also a house that is contiguous with the neighbors' houses (and rented, in my case). I am surprised to see that the article, and the comments posted so far as I post this comment, do not mention even more prominently that one of the big lifestyle differences, which drives HUGE economic policy differences, between Germany and the United States is housing preferences. The United States government has federal policies and many state and local policies that provide incentives for people to take out long-term mortgages to buy single-family houses on lots that are quite large by worldwide standards. Local zoning regulations in the towns near where I live are such that thousands of houses are on lots more than one hectare (2.47 acres) in size within ten kilometers of where I live, and a typical lot would look very large to most people from Germany. Culturally, for a very long time Americans have liked to be "land poor," tying up many of their family assets in the barely liquid form of a house and lot paid for by long-term debt. Many American economists over the years have bought into the idea that real estate investment by the masses is a productive form of investment for the national economy, but other economists have long criticized an American overemphasis (promoted by federal tax policy and local land-use regulations) on houses that are as big as public buildings in most countries, built on lots that are as big as whole farms in the other country I have lived in (Taiwan).
Several of the newly industrialized countries in east Asia, and several countries in Europe, have family spending patterns that devote much less money to housing, at a given level of income, than families spend in the United States. I recall one American friend I knew a decade ago in Taiwan who described a middle-class neighborhood of walk-up apartment buildings in Taipei as a "slum," although to my eye it looked like a fine place to live, and indeed was cleaner and more spacious than the neighborhood I then lived in in a suburb of Taipei. Spending less money on a grassy lawn allows spending more money on family travel during vacations (as the German family in the submitted article does) or on supplemental education for children (as my family does or as many families in east Asia do). Either the German pattern or the Taiwanese pattern of spending appears to result in more effective development of young people's skills (investment in "human capital") than the current United States pattern, and investment in a skilled next generation tends to promote steady national economic growth.
So to me, the sad thing about this interesting submitted article is that many Americans are going to look at the photograph of the Krugers' "Tudor-style house in" a middle-class town, and say, "I would never want to live like that," and not think through the implications of polices that nudge Americans to buy ever bigger houses, built on ever bigger lots, for ever smaller families generation after generation. One reason that the American housing market collapsed a few years ago is that most Americans didn't recognize the housing market bubble as a bubble--rather, they genuinely couldn't imagine a world in which people would do anything other than continually overspend on housing and underspend on developing employment skills. Perhaps some Americans will happily adapt to a more German lifestyle (as my family has done), but the United States as a whole is unlikely to have a strong national economy to the degree that Germany does unless millions of voters change their individual purchasing decisions and views on appropriate governmental policies.
It's not just a different approach to housing. It's a different approach to urban design.
I want a yard where I can have 2-3 dogs. I want to be free to let them romp. I dont want to share with 10 other dogs at a dog park, where my responsibility is to identify and watch for the least attentive owner's dog.
http://www.globalpropertyguide.com/Europe/Germany/Price-Hist... - Average existing home price is 238k euros ($310k)
http://www.census.gov/const/uspriceann.pdf - Average US new home price is $272k
Remember we are comparing apples to oranges (Existing small german average home vs new big US home)
BTB, if you watch the show "International house hunters" you would realize how cheap US real estate really is. It will be amazing to see how houses in europe or brazil or even Nigeria costs much much more than the typical american homes!
Plus sides - I have never seen so many big cars, Mercedes etc obviously being driven by ordinary people, in the UK would be upper middle class. Doesnt seem to be rows of closed down shops on high streets like in the UK - most shopping streets in UK are like ghost towns these days.
Down sides. Looong hours at work. Most people live in apartments and not big semi or detached houses.
America ran trade deficits during the fastest period of its growth, almost the entire 19th century. So how did we accumulate so much real wealth and production while running trade deficits?
Answer: because the profits being generated domestically outstripped the import imbalance. We had no real national debt. Debt being a killer if you have a trade deficit (countries like China end up buying up your debt as a place to park their imported dollars, then you become beholden to their interests).
Peaked?
Europe is no longer divided. I can travel around. Pay in a single currency. War is a distant memory. Infrastructure is much improved. Even the environment is better now. Rivers are cleaner. Air is cleaner. The political conflicts are less. There are huge market opportunities for our companies. Right next to us it takes decades of growth to improve East Europe's living standards and economies.