Millions of Americans nearing retirement age with no savings
cbsnews.com
cbsnews.com
I know a lot of people in my age cohort who don't have even a dime saved up. And these are not the average struggling American like in the article. They're privileged well-to-do techies. They don't have the very critical "pay yourself first before paying your bills" mindset. I don't know what their plan is if they get critically sick to the point where they can't work, or when their health inevitably deteriorates in their old age. They just kind of shrug and say I'll cross that bridge when it comes. Trading in the Tesla is not going to pay for assisted living.
Not only do people make little money the US government literally kicks you off food stamps if you have 2,000$ in the bank.
so yeah, you're out of touch with both the topic in the article and the audience here.
I'm gonna be the asshole here, the article clearly states she adopted 3 children. Now because it isn't a particularly good article we don't know if maybe she adopted her nieces or nephew or whatever, but probably not(based on the video).
That decision alone is a very big red flag that (coupled with the ominous "I have a live-for-now philosophy") that we are looking at a person that made some questionable decisions in her life.
By all means, if they're a major value in your life, spend your money where you choose to. But don't be surprised if that means it comes from another part.
That said, at some point demographics are going to result in a need to incentivize child rearing politically, particularly in developed countries. It may be wise to look to how difficult this process is going in China and Japan and get out ahead of it before it is the emergency it's growing into over there. We may take an ever present labor pool for granted thanks to immigration over our Southern border here in the US, but not every job can be filled by a migrant worker with little formal education.
Actually, wait. Sorry, that was the reason the previous generation didn't bother to save.
> There will be less fun things to buy
^ that's an interesting way to look at it!
Going long on ammo, salt, and water purification might be a better deal. Knowing whatever new flavor of JS is great, but do you know how to grow rye in marginal conditions, or how to handload?
to me it sounded like avoiding savings cuz climate is exactly the "tomorrow never comes" approach, on steroids, so I was just curious about that part
While yes you should be concerned about potential climate change, don't buy into this 'world is going to end due to global warming/cooling in 204x' stuff. That is just mostly said by guys that make money trading carbon credits.
In the 70's they said the world was going to end in a few decades because of a new ice age. Tuns of people said the polar ice caps would have completely melted by now. Most of the alarmists have an agenda that is more about power/control/money than "saving the world."
Also don't forget the folks selling you stuff want you stressed. A stressed consumer overspends. You are falling into the marketing trap they want you in. A lot of those gun and survival seed companies feed into that paranoia. If they seriously thought the end was coming why would they sell you that stuff? They would hoard it and keep quiet.
Even if you're prepping for a disaster you see as inevitable, having a means of exchange set aside helps maintain some mobility and flexibility.
Money lasted from pre-Sumerian days through some pretty cataclysmic scenarios in the past. Hollywood notwithstanding, I don't think anything coming down the pike is going to leave anyone saying "darn, I have all this gold."
Now, sure, fiat may go worthless, its backing tied to the economic output and taxation of systems that may well crumble. And yes, things like salt, water purification tablets, even seeds, could well become currency (tobacco was currency in colonial era Virginia). But it's worth considering why you're saving what you're saving, and whether you're leaving yourself open to be blindsided.
best case scenario plan - become a financial burden to their children and family.
most likely plan - become a financial burden to society.
Their parents had defined benefits pensions. Their children have commission free IRA's, 401(k)'s, variable annuities, and a handful of other lesser known alternatives.
They got the 70s and 80s economies to grow up in, and the dot com bubble, GFC, and now a looming recession after many got sucked into some YOLO moonshot plays in the bull market of 2021, upon realizing how much ground they needed to try to make up rapidly. I don't envy their situation.
I'm sure in no rush to pay down my car loan any quicker than is required.
What inflation > interest implies is that you should try to place your savings in in real assets, i.e., assets that are inflation protected, rather than in assets that just pay interest, such as bonds.
In an inflationary environment, saving up to purchase a house can be an enormous, life-altering financial windfall for those who can do it.
Just a few hundred a month could have made you a millionare today through dollar-cost averaging. Deciding not to invest because you think our economy isn't as great as before is a terrible reason not to invest. If you are trying to "time the market" with your retirement account and believing that no time in the past 12 years is a good time, rather than dollar-cost averaging and investing all throughout, you're really screwing yourself over
People backpacking know this, so it pretty much falls on deaf ears.
I've also found these types of people tend to live an incredibly frugal lifestyle. Saving in their 30's becomes far easier because they tend to not have the lifestyle bloat.
While their overall income will be lower, they need less to retire and generally seem to remain surprisingly financially independent.
After firmly boarding the tax-loss harvesting hype train, I had fallen prey to the intuitively appealing idea that short-term capital losses could offset gains from the sale of a rental property held for less than one year. It turns out that short-term gains from the sale of business property flow (Form 4797) directly to your Schedule 1, without an opportunity for Schedule D losses to offset them.
Now as a result I'm sitting on a 5-figure tax bill and 6-figure capital loss carryforward.
sucks to be you though.
I see no reason to assume bad intentions.
https://www.realized1031.com/blog/what-is-the-difference-bet...
Consider how often people see ads trying to influence them to spend. They work and it's shaping our culture.
It also requires a non-trivial amount of slack between your income and expenses, especially if you want to invest enough to beat inflation for your savings period and up to 35 years after. The value of $1 in 1985 (~35 years ago) is equivalent to $2.78 now.
With as many folks as are living paycheck to paycheck (and usually they aren't backpacking), not having that slack - or time to manage that slack "properly - is not really all that surprising.
I also feel it's worth calling out that the fact that your target cohort is 20-something backpackers shows a cognitive bias on who is actually having issues with their retirement funds. The reality is that most folks who are having issues right now are older Gen X, not young Gen Z.
When you realize that the entire system is basically set up so that as an employer, you're siphoning off funds from your employees for witholding that by default are conservatively invested (read: in whoever has managed to become the too big to fail company from convincing institutional investors to foot the bill)... Ot really starts to make a bit more sense why sweeping change has a hard time happening except in tech circles.
I don't have a great solution to apply to the masses. Personally I enjoy researching my investments, but am well aware people don't all feel this way.
Not investing for the future, however, feels like rather than finding a solution, it is just the "throwing one's hands up in the air and giving up" option. And the results are, well, what you might expect.
Perhaps the best solution is for people to find what DOES interest them to invest in. The options aren't limited to company stocks, or real estate, debt, or even commodities. A larger and larger portion of the market has been opening up to retail investors with increasingly minimal costs. Perhaps no solace to the 50+ crowd that hasn't started yet, but at least hope for younger generations to have better options to avoid the same fate.
If your goal is not to give anyone else your capital to do anything with, you'd better at least have it in hard cash, if not outright hard commodities.
Otherwise, don't fool yourself into getting a smaller return while still doing what you thought you were avoiding.
It's not that I don't feel it's important--I do. It's that the entire infrastructure for dealing with 401Ks and retirement, I think, sucks. Moving money from one place to another is terrifying--so many different steps along with the fear you'll accidentally pull the money "out" and have to pay taxes and penalties on it...
I can hear everyone saying, "It's easy--I had no problem with it". So it's not rational. But I'll bet I'm not alone.
(For the record, I'm doing OK in the retirement department. Well above average for my age and well-well-well above median. I still goddamn hate it. I'd rather have paid more tax in exchange for more Social Security payout any day.)
It’s going to be a shit show. But heh, at least those pesky pensions went away, amirite? Insolvent pensions are the least of your concerns when tens of millions of older Americans have a vote and are collecting an entitlement till death.
The problem isn't retirement accounts, it's a lack of mandatory funding by employers.
I cannot imagine relying on a company to pay me during retirement. I get that that system existed once, but the incentives are so misaligned it terrifies me
Even a 2500/year contribution for a worker will yield almost 200k at a 2% annual return on an average and almost 500k at a 5% return over 45 years. While by no means could independently support a lifestyle, it can definitely supplement social security. The burden for workers to save would be significantly lower.
Not only must employer contributions be mandated, but it must be very hard to get access to the funds before retirement. Otherwise, they’re just cashed out. You also have to have strong guardrails around fees and fiduciaries so it’s not a big pot of money for finance to leach off of.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Superannuation_in_Australia
Also agree with Retric’s sibling comment.
We don’t use that system because individual 401k’s are extremely profitable for the companies running them. Fees can reduce the long term payout by as much as 1/3.
Best to go into a self directed account and use Vanguard and safe yourself thousands in fees over a lifetime.
You're absolutely right about pensions though; people pining for the days of the fixed benefit pension rarely are all that familiar with the pension plans that simply went bust due to inability to fund their liabilities due to market conditions. At least with a 401(k), you're not running out of money because your retirement is being invested too conservatively so as to pay someone older than you, leaving it empty by the time it's your turn.
Another game was simply redefining the terms, almost always reducing the benefits. This was a common game and it's almost irresistible to the managers. At the highest level, the US government is always doing when they tweak the Social Security formulas for retirement age.
At least with the 401k/IRA/SEP etc, you're in control and you see the assets go up or down.
A is broken because it cause B and C. replace A with X, which cause C and Z, with Z being as bad as B but a million times harder to fix.
This was the problem, not lack of defined benefit pensions. With the advent of near zero cost target date retirement funds and equity and bond index funds, there is no need to be beholden to one employer and have to trust the pension plan trustees with your retirement.
Best case scenario is the trustees invest in the same index funds you would, and worst case is they misappropriate the funds or take wild risks. So why not cut out the unnecessary middleman?
If you really want an annuity, then buy it from an actually regulated insurance company, rather than a DB pension plan that is doing who knows what.
If your left hand owes money to your right hand, your left hand might be broke but you as a whole aren't.
Luckily there are still lots of people willing to move to America to clean bedpans.
Math might improve a bit with US treasuries paying almost 4%, as that is what the trust fund invests in (specifically special issue treasuries).
> By the end of 2021, the trust funds had accumulated $2.9 trillion worth of Treasury securities, earning an average interest rate of 1.4 percent during that year. The Social Security Administration provides monthly reports on the investment holdings of the trust funds, their maturities, and interest rates. The trustees project that the trust funds will earn $64.6 billion in interest income in 2022.
https://www.cbpp.org/research/social-security/understanding-...
https://www.businessinsider.com/sovereign-wealth-fund-biden-...
If you’re angry about it, be upset about past garbage governance and irresponsibility in not planning for the future by politicians. If you strip mine the economy in the past, you can’t be all surprise pikachu when the bill comes due in the future. Trillions of dollars on useless wars and tax cuts for the wealthy didn’t help.
$1500/month is not sunshine and rainbows, but it's not starving in the streets either.
That's a pretty big question mark though.
Many people start developing dementia before 70.
Thoughts? Comments?
If you are asking what will be done to offset the monetary effects of the additional government spending, then “increased high-end taxes, starting with taxing long-term capital gains the same as other income”.
If you are appealing to the myth of necessary fiscal balance in government operations, well, that’s a myth, but same answer as the monetary answer, to the extent anything is done.
This, plus finding a way to make people update their cost basis (and pay capital gains taxes) on property that they want to use as collateral for debt.
There are certainly consequences to be paid when you do that, but so far we seem fine with those consequences when they benefit the most powerful among us.
UBI in this environment means the gov keeps feeding the consuming beast.
Financial issues are one of the top causes for divorce, having trouble sleeping, and more. UBI doesn't solve for the any of this when people spend more than they earn.
I'm only pointing out the deeper culture problem around money that UBI doesn't solve.
However, since this has become an ingrained habit, this cannot be a short term stimulus, and will need to be continued.
Inflation as a result cannot be ignored obviously, but I suspect this will be ignored, and will cause significant drops in people's standard of living, and create huge divide in the lifestyles of those who rely on UBI like programs, and those who do not.
One thing I hear about a lot is people attempting to live off social security payments, which is usually not enough. I wish that there was flexibility to contribute more than 6.5% (or whatever the personal contribution is) to social security as well as IRAs, which are capped at $6500 or $7500.
What is the rationale MMT provides for why increasing the supply of money available to the elderly would not lead to inflation on all the goods that the elderly purchase with that money?
Even then, entering and upsizing is generally a long term play where price differences are distributed.
Well, the nice thing about being retired is that you can live anywhere you choose to live, more or less.
You don't have to pay $2-3k/month to rent a rathole apartment in Silicon Valley when you're retired.
The median house price in San Jose, CA is $1.1 million. The median house price in Gulf Shores, AL (a pretty nice resort area) is only $479k. If you went for a less-resorty area, say Biloxi, MS, you could get by for only $207k.
Edit: you could even have a summer place in Maine (median price: $299,000) and a winter place in Biloxi (median price $207k) and still spend less than half what the San Jose house would cost.
There aren't a lot of services. The hospital in Foley isn't super impressive compared to something you'd see in the Bay Area.
The local amenities are way more focused on partying and/or kids, too.
And finally, of course, is the weather. Winter on that part of the gulf isn't as warm as most people are looking for. You certainly aren't going swimming in the ocean, or even an outdoor pool unless it is heated. You'll have plenty of winter nights at or near freezing.
? Both Redfin and Zillow peg Pensacola at only around $250-275k, considerably less than Gulf Shores, not more, and only about 1/4 that of San Jose.
Combine this with the skyrocketing costs of retirement homes in convenient locations, which NIMBYism has also contributed towards, Boomers have few attractive options.
The amount of Elderly people living alone in homes large enough for a family is bananas.
And then they have assisted living people come take care of them in their homes because it's too much for them to look after alone, but they refuse to move somewhere smaller.
Why?
The great wealth transfer, the estate of dying boomers transferring to their grandchildren, is only just starting. It's not going to be a windfall, it's going to completely flood into real estate. It's basically what happened in the more densely populated Western European countries already, a ratchet up. Americans are in for a rude awakening.
If they sold those homes they would never be able to buy back in. Nobody is going to sell a South Bay area home they inherited from their boomer parents. They will rent it out or move in. A massive windfall for them.
They're not a cure-all, of course, and the high rate environment isn't exactly ideal. But they are an option that gets out of the situation you describe.
Maybe that's the final push we need to adopt universal health care like the other civilized countries? When the cost of caring for Boomers will become too high for younger generations to bear, it will either solve itself out through policy or lots of misery.
The amount of money that can be saved this way is nothing to shake a stick at. It may not be what most people want to put up with, but it's not without its financial benefits.
I watched my parents, and especially my mom, give up their entire youth caring for my dad’s excessively elderly parents.
They sacrificed portions of mine and my sister’s childhood to take care of two people, who from the age of 75 to almost 100 (both of them), were a net loss to the family since they did not speak English, could not drive, and “needed” home cooked meals 2 to 3 times per day.
It was absolutely a burden for my family, and I hope to never be the parent that needs chronic care, and I am certainly not wanting my kids and grandkids to give up their youth for my senescence.
No, I will not be squandering my retirement now with the plan that my kids will take care of me. Frankly, I find the very thought of that repulsive.
Yea, how awful -- you might get in the way of their modern narcissistic lifestyle.
But yes, it can go badly -- if, for instance, you're moving in with your kids, rather than providing the house for them to move into. And doing so when no longer physically capable of providing that childcare as a benefit. And then expecting them to pay for your groceries, etc.
But then, the same has been known to happen when you've got ungrateful children, who can't be asked to lift a finger around the house, and who rely on child protective laws to shield them from ever being taught a lesson in reality.
Living with other people isn't always easy, but it does typically pay dividends when you can make it work.
At a FAANG table of 5, I was the only one doing anything outside of 401k. I’m also the only one without a Tesla.
I vehemently disagree. The basic issue is that people live beyond their means and it is facilitated/incentivized by a consumer society and a basic human “flaw” of optimizing for the short term and not the long term, financial illiteracy, amongst other things.
Thinking you can have 3 kids and drive a new car etc etc when you don’t have the means but will use a credit card is not a good financial startegy. But then again, very few people think about money and plan…