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Comment by xbmcuser | Hacker News Reader

Solar and Wind electric production costs are still dropping by 10-15% a year same for batteries. A lot of people and countries don't realise the electricity revolution that is coming. Cost of production for a lot products will start coming down with cheaper electricity.

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They don’t realize it because they don’t get any of the benefits. Electricity costs are rising across the country almost without exception.

Meanwhile California is paying other states to take electricity because they generate so much excess power during the duck curve (while simultaneously having rolling blackouts)

IL also sells off something like 250MW of excess power but it’s just like that all the time since it’s all coming from our nuclear plants.

250 MW of constantly available power from a reactor may be more valuable than 600 MW during sunshine that goes to 0 MW during night time.

Solar will become vastly more valuable once enough electrical storage capacity goes online.

And after electrical storage capacity is solved, let's work on heat storage capacity. Do I really have to spend ten grand digging up my yard ?

Like, well, home insulation and heat-exchanging ventilation?

In Scandinavia the summers provide loooong days. When it's sunny, there is SUCH a surplus of heat that could (in principle) be captured for wintertime use.

I think it's more than that actually, but still a great idea if you don't have subway or something under you. I finally met someone in real life that has that set up and it's a bit capital intensive even after the diffing. In about half of US you need a backup heating system for real cold spells.

I wish we would build out nuclear here in CA.

Thankfully we were able to save Diablo. I can't believe how close we came to shutting it down.

I’d bet in California in 5 years the duck curves for demand will be fully decoupled from the supply curve through short term storage.

It’s also very likely California’s excess generation and storage will entirely flatten the generation curve for neighboring states.

I agree with the GP, we are on the precipice of an energy revolution. I look forward to see what we do with it!

I've lived in California for decades and have never experienced a rolling blackout. The only times my power has gone out was because of maintenance, one particularly bad thunderstorm, and drivers crashing into the poles.

Whether or not you get a black out or a "flex alert" depends entirely on where you live. PG&E avoids cutting power to the rich people who live in the SF bay valley, and instead cuts it to the rural and outskirt areas.

https://sf.curbed.com/2019/10/9/20906839/map-pge-blackout-po...

That's because they chose to live in the wildlife-urban interface, where wildfire risks are elevated. Note the article talks about damage to power lines. The shutoffs were not related to a lack of capacity.

Rural grid connection and maintenance costs are heavily subsidized by urban electricity users already. These subsidies should be applied for rather than being hidden so it's clear to everyone they exist.

I live in a very impoverished area so it is definitely not a rich/poor thing.

No rolling blackouts here.

And prices have been falling. Most plans around here are paying $0.10496. I'm on a time schedule and do most of my charging at $0.07688.

The price per kWh has been consistently falling. I think the GP is right, energy is changing.

https://cleanpoweralliance.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Cl...

That's my point. We're told (wholesale) prices are falling, but retail prices are rising everywhere[1]. Especially in CA where they're skyrocketing compared to the national average[2].

That's why they don't "realize it", because so far it has had ZERO positive impact on them.

1. https://www.statista.com/statistics/183700/us-average-retail...

2. https://www.pleasantonweekly.com/blogs/p/2022/03/06/when-wil...

No blackouts here. Rural blackouts are more common in high wind situations to mitigate wildfire risk. It's just the reality of living in the WUF.

75% of electricity costs in California come from the grid, not generation. Grid costs recently are up due to wildfire mitigation for power to rural communities.

Batteries would need an order of magnitude improvement in cost to solve grid storage.

That is what is happening. Non lithium tech for grid storage has started to pick up steam 1/8 to 1/10 the current cost for grid storage will be here by 2030

That depends on what problem you're solving and how much you're willing to spend. Some people seem to thing grid storage is a failure if it can't store power in the summer to use in the winter, but that's really not a realistic goal. Storing power during the daylight to use at night is far more reasonable -- expensive, but doable with current technology.

Pumped hydro storage is another option. As is relying not so much on storage but rather expanding grid interconnection. Day/night solar cycles are less of a problem if you can buy and sell power across many time zones.

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