In almost all cases, the original offer is still on the table. "Negotiating with the decisionmaker will cost me this offer, so don't negotiate" is something which is only really believed by engineers who are -- and I say this with love -- abominably incompetent at negotiation. This is regrettable, since skill at negotiation matters a whole heck of a lot more than skill with Chef or mastery of Postgres trivia for determining both the instant results of the negotiation and one's larger career trajectory.
Still working on that blog post on negotiation, should be up early Monday for more elaboration on this.
I've personally filtered out dozens if not hundreds of otherwise qualified people due to salary concerns without a second thought. In two cases within the last six months I've seen the party who pushed for a higher salary reach out again only to find the position filled.
My guess is that you've never experienced an employer's market. It may not be one in silicon valley, but it is for most engineers around the world. Being a white guy in Japan, and then a guy with a popular blog following, you've had a far, far different experience than a typical engineer.
It depends. As another data point, I've applied for jobs where the job advert was from 6 months ago. There is a shortage of IT talent, this company had been waiting 6 months. They can afford to wait a few weeks more.
You're probably right that line-of-business developers at Fortune-100 insurance companies on the east coast have a harder time than SFBA devs. But don't overgeneralize: in software companies in the US, it is a seller's market for talent.
So, two specific responses:
(1) You can in general safely push back on the first offer from any company --- this practice is so time-honored that it gets a chapter in _What Color Is My Parachute_, which is among the most anodyne sources of career counseling out there. Hiring managers, even at office furniture companies in Grand Rapids Michigan, are prepared for you to reject the first offer, and they've deliberately calibrated their first offer to deal with that.
(2) Technology companies everywhere will in 2012 go out of their way to work through salary negotiation. It doesn't matter if you're in SFBA, Seattle, Austin, Chicago, or Cleveland: if they're hiring for talent (ie, if they're actually a tech company), you're not going to spook them. Wherever they are, they have gotten used to the idea that candidates hold the cards and are likely at any point to decide to relo to Mountain View to work for 1.5x as much as you can pay them.
Before you automatically write off all of China (as well as India and other nearby countries), consider that engineering is moving at a rapid pace here. Not only are some internet companies ahead of western counterparts (e.g. free to play gaming models), but there's simultaneously a boom in materials engineering, medical devices and clean-tech.
I realize that the US is particularly insulated from the market realities, due to a difficult immigration system amongst other things. I can't really comment much on the specifics. But those sorts of distortions don't don't generalize to the entire world, and they won't last forever.