A continuing Moore's law is only one factor in the emergence of AGI. It's possible the current progress of GPUs today is sufficient to run AGI given advancements in software.
> unlikely to get a 100% kill
I don't take much comfort in 99% of the human race dying, and the remaining 1% living in constant fear of being next. (Substitute 99:1 ratio with whichever you please.)
> it will die if we die
Why would you think this? Certainly an AGI that is 10x more intelligent than homo sapiens would be able to leapfrog Boston Dynamics's technology level by decades or perhaps centuries.
> could not do it without an extended program of experimentation and development
We're in that extended program period now. But when the AI can write its successors better and faster than we can, we should expect the iteration cycle to shorten exponentially upon each iteration, hence the short time to liftoff.