Not an expert here, but I think one of the only reasons that nonproliferation works is because it’s generally difficult to make nukes without making it pretty obvious that you’re doing it. Even biological warfare is somewhat easy to identify. AI seems different in that it just requires intelligent people, compute power, and time.
What does it look like? Neuromancer's Turing Police
Let’s pre-empt that, even: assassinations of non-allied AI researchers?
Right and how did that work out for those 3? Wintermute still found a way.