Met Office says Northern Lights will be visible in England tonight and tomorrow
bristolpost.co.uk
bristolpost.co.uk
Just like a solar eclipse, the aurora is one of those celestial phenomena that you really have to experience firsthand, at least once in your life. It's worth the hassle!
It was honestly more magical 9 or 10 years ago when I first got here, but I still enjoy it.
It's too bad they aren't easier to plan around. I looked into going to Iceland once and it was like " there might be an aurora." As I recall, it's less of a seasonal thing and more sheer luck. (I know the weather is hard to predict in general.)
I didn't see the lights but fell in love with Iceland. If you really want to see them you have to hunt and chase them! Like tonight Alaska is the place to be!
When were you there last? While I agree with everything else you say, Reykjavik has over the last decade or so unfortunately turned into a city of souvenir shops and tourist trap restaurants. Personally I wouldn't 'budget' more than 24 hours of an Iceland vacation to Reykjavik.
Unfortunately the US will never get to be the utopia that is Iceland in terms of safety and taking care of its citizens so crime doesn't need to be committed. It's too big with half the population just thinking like their parents and grandparents do or did vs. thinking hmm I'm open minded to see how other countries work.
Love Iceland!
I think it's largely due to "weather" on the Sun (although I believe you also need it to be a clear night on Earth in order to be able to see it properly)
On the other hand I've heard the point made that if a clear night sky was as rare as northern lights or an eclipse, people would similarly be freaking out about it as a life-changing almost religious primal experience.
It's very easy to take this stuff for granted, I guess is what I'm saying.
“Nightfall” by Isaac Asimov uses this a premise.
Which of course they are in large cities. And city dwellers often do have such a reaction to a clear night sky in a dark place where you can actually see all the stars.
Last winter I had the good fortune to go for a walk and catching the corona right behind my house (on a side I can't see the sky from inside - due to window placement and trees). Beautiful.
But then I also marvel at a clear starry night...
Aurora
lighting up a cold night
Letting us know
below the horizon
The Sun is shining
8 minutes
one unit away
In the dark
Now I atleast remember the delighted screams of tourists that were taking photos there.
It can’t really be captured om film - and what you see on film is quite different.
I've done a lot of time-lapse of Aurora, which accentuates the moves. These days, however, the ISO and light sensitivity of cameras has gotten so good that you can indeed film the Aurora at regular shutter speeds and still get a really good result. I think we'll see more interesting (and perhaps more scientific) presentations of the phenomena in the future due to that fact. Or one may at least hope!
I am from Interior Alaska. Later in life, I heard this same story from someone from Gambell, Alaska in the Bering Sea. That is when it dawned on me, that if you are outside whistling for too long, someone/something might come and cut off your head. Interior Alaskans and Coastal Alaskans used to kidnap each other with enough regularity to give precedence to such legends.
“With my reputation?”
I wanted the forecast in a simple non-video format, and was tired of doing the mental math converting from UTC, so I made my own tool to show Kp forecast values (from NOAA) in the user's local timezone. Here it is in case it can be useful to anyone else:
Obviously, it's pretty bare bones. You need to have an understanding of which Kp value is needed to see the lights at your latitude. I'm working on adding more features to make it more user friendly
Another great tool from over here that I've made use of a lot is Tromsø Geophysical Observatory's magnetometer stackplots page[1], but not for forecasting obviously.
https://longnow.org/ideas/very-long-term-backup/
There was a near miss in 2012. These things are not than uncommon, on a century-scale:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carrington_Event
We had a miss in 2012:
finally my backup strategy of tens of thousands of pages of dot matrix printing on continuous feed paper has been validated
He had me come in each morning and go over the logs for the servers on our VOIP product - which fed to a line-printer (dot matrix) in real-time and would spit out a ton of paper. (as much as I hated this, I love the sound of dot-matrix printers)
I had to go through the logs with a highlighter and highlight out anything suspicious...
This was the mid-late 90s and we were one of the few companies to have already adoped Linux to production at that time.
Some of our employees were the authors of H.323 and some other protocols - and flourished out to all sorts of your streaming techs today.
(At this point, I've no idea what eventually became of those boxes, though...)
So.. less than Earth's ambient magnetic field?
While low power, long distance lines (like telegraph or POTS) would be in trouble, and maaaybe some network cards would burn our due to long Ethernet wires, storage devices and many computers would be fine. If you are super worried, seal some hard drives in food tins - the frequency is pretty low so it doesn't even have to be fully airtight.
Am I thinking about this the wrong way? Low frequency will penetrate more easily, high frequency will be blocked. Did you mean high?
Of course I didn't actually look up what frequencies we're talking about- low and high can mean a lot of different things
Apparently the electrical fires were from GIE (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geomagnetically_induced_curren... ), which are "measured in V/km".. but how big were they?
After some searching I found this PDF presentation: "Geomagnetic Storms and the US Power Grid" https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/sites/default/files/images/u33/fin... , which says: "GIC are Quasi DC currents" and "Moderate Storm - Electric Field at Earth’s Surface 1-5 V/km / Largest recorded 20 V/km" and
Let's assume 10x worse than largest recorded, 200 V / km.. not sure if this is physically possible but probably a worst case.
A high-voltage transmission lines would be in danger, as presentation said. Not only because of overvoltage, but also because this is injecting DC into lines designed for AC only.
A 10 km old-style telephone or telegraph line would get 2000 volt on it... this would definitely burn the equipment or set it on fire.
What about my house? The AC comes in from nearest distribution transformer ("pole pig"). The nominal output is 110V RMS (155V peak), and let's say there is ~0.6 miles (1 km) from it to my house. This will be 355V peak arriving, equivalent to 251V RMS. My appliances and lights (which were turned on) are likely gone... but many computers might survive, as modern power supplies are often rated "90-240V" for european usage (and they don't care about AC/DC mix either). And of course if you had any surge protectors in your extension cords, they'd protect your devices -- they were designed exactly for situations like those.
What about my local network? There are less then 100 meters of distance, so 20V induced voltage.. and common Ethernet is rated for 2000V, so this is going to be fine.
What about USB cords, low-voltage power cords, etc...? Well, those are shielded / have two wires right next to each other, so they would normally be unaffected. But let's say you had a bad ground connector or incompletely plugged in device, so you have a loop. In this case, 2 meter (6ft) cable would have 0.4 volts. That's within tolerances of most ICs, they'd be fine.
What about unplugged device? Your 18" laptop will develop 0.08 volts in the worst case. Most of the modern ICs run in 0-1V range, so they won't burn up (but might have some glitches if device is working). Your antennas (WIFI and 3G) would also develop extremely low voltage so they would be fine as well.
TL/DR: country-wide systems (power grid, old telegraph) is in trouble. City-wide might or might not survive. Anything smaller than a house is fine. If you are worried about second Carrington, get water, food and generator, and get some surge protectors.
The latest example is 1989 Quebec power blackout: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/March_1989_geomagnetic_storm . The storm tripped some protections, that overloaded other circuits which tripped as well, and the whole province went dark. It took 90 seconds for everything to shut down, and 9 hours to restore everything. Judging by that timeline, no major equipment was damaged.
I keep reading about government mandating solar storm protection for power grids.. hopefully next time a big storm comes, we'll be more protected than Quebec in 1989.
Other tests done during electromagnetic compatibility testing (EMC) include bombarding things with radio waves, testing susceptibility to surge voltages and injecting voltages into power cables.
https://emcfastpass.com/emc-testing-beginners-guide/emc-immu...
The key for all of these is duration and total energy. A TVS diode can deal with high voltages - but if they're sustained for too long the diode will burn up. The testing regimes all use quite low total energies.
The values you give for geomagnetically induced currents talk about volts per km. EMC testing of industrial equipment is typically done at volts per meter - a factor of 1000x greater. The industrial standards require 10 V/m, military stuff is tested at 200 V/m.
So all that EMC stuff is very important in everyday life (and it killed more than one FET :) ), but seems inapplicable for Carrington-style event. There, it will be all about huge currents and low voltages. If the wire is long enough, TVSs may burn out, capacitors may overvolt and explode, any ESD protection diodes will also get destroyed. Luckily, we don't have a lot of long-distance copper wires connected to sensitive electronics.
> Today, any information stored only on a floppy disk is essentially gone.
That's totally untrue. You can buy a USB floppy drive on Amazon for $20, and a pack of disks for another $20. I have two 1990s-era Power Macintosh machines with floppy drives sitting on my desk right now, they both work, as do the floppy drives.
And I was able to access some ~15-year-old floppies just a couple of years ago with no trouble.
Now, do I put any faith in the reality of being able access any of it the following week? Not really.
There isn't really a way to replace them.
Slightly strangely - and a slight chance of being related - we've had multiple power cuts here (Sussex) throughout the night and since the last one the mains voltage is way down (182v vs the normal 230-ish according to the UPS).
We just went to see them at our nearest beach in Tallinn.
I just looked it up and the latitude of the place I'm from in Canada is about in the middle between Tallinn and London. We usually see the Northern Lights here several times year, With exceptionally prominent displays occurring at least at least once every 2-3 years.
I did not expect how often Americans would ask me about the Northern Lights when I visited there for a few months many years ago. They were often so fascinated and slightly envious/baffled by how blasé I felt about something so incredible because it was so common to me.
Thanks.
Also sorry for being too polite.
Yet here we have someone claiming anglos are "rude" to french speakers? In what way?
Because, I presume, they do not speak french?
The "Speak white" in parliament is something that is hard to forget even if it was long ago now. But yes, berating French speakers for speaking French in a French-speaking province is actually rude.
In none of the "French cultures" I know, is not speaking French rude. What is rude is assuming everyone speaks your own language everywhere.
I'm not here to write an essay on cohabitation between languages in multilingual countries (which I could) though, but I would like you to read your own comment again and ask yourself whether it exudes politeness at all.
And maybe, whether your aggressive-defensive knee-jerk reaction to a mention of French speakers might be the reason Quebecers tend to consider Anglos the opposite of polite.
Your link mentions this, too:
> Based on the WMM2020 coefficients for 2020.0 the geomagnetic north pole is at 72.68°W longitude and 80.65°N latitude, […] Although geomagnetic pole positions cannot be observed, they are arguably of greater significance than the dip poles because the auroral ovals (approximate 5° latitude bands where the spectacular aurora is likely visible) are closely centered on the geomagnetic poles.
That'd place you at about the north of England, maybe around Newcastle. I'd expect with clear skies and a dark environment to the north you'd have seen last night's display from that far south.
The Sun has been weirdly energetic for about 150 years or so, with far more thermal and electromagnetic output than history would suggest.
On a related note: Now I am interested and I wonder if the change is big enough to make a difference on the earth and if it has been accounted for in the models.
Say it has...
But, you've all seen those graphs of totally unrelated things that show a correlation. So, it must absolutely only be caused by humans, right? Because there's no way the most energetic thing for 100 million miles fluctuating wildly in its energy output could cause matching fluctuations in a planet's atmosphere, right?
”The amount of solar energy Earth receives has followed the Sun’s natural 11-year cycle of small ups and downs, with no net increase since the 1950s. Over the same period, global temperature has risen markedly. It is therefore extremely unlikely that the Sun has caused the observed global temperature warming trend over the past half-century.”
It's not even something that you need secret mystical knowledge that only the woowoo anti-climate-change wonks believe in, you can get the data and do the maths on it yourself.
The James Bay network went offline in less than 90 seconds, giving Quebec its second massive power outage in 11 months.[11] The power failure lasted nine hours and forced the company to implement various mitigation strategies, including raising the trip level, installing series compensation on ultra high voltage lines and upgrading various monitoring and operational procedures. Other utilities in North America and Northern Europe and elsewhere implemented programs to reduce the risks associated with geomagnetically induced currents (GICs)
My Aurora app says the lights should be visible in Fairbanks next Sunday and Monday, of course cloud cover kills your chances of seeing it but as of now looks partly sunny those days.
https://www.rbb24.de/panorama/beitrag/2023/02/brandenburg-po...
Happy hunting!
So far today it’s clear skies so looking forward to tonight.
Aurora borealis is visible at much lower latitudes in North America compared to Europe.
Edit: 02:30 UTC - moon has set now, but still nothing on a long camera exposure.
- sunset at around 18:00
- are those planets at 20:00?
- what's that bright thing at midnight that looks like another sunset?
edit: formatting
You might be able see them on a clear moonless night between march and September, which mostly rules out Seattle (we have too much light pollution anyways).
Thanks
There are also some at https://www.reddit.com/r/Scotland/new/
(none of these are my work btw. I'm not there)
I believe many of them to be "visible to my camera, not visible to me" class images.
I saw the aurora once in Edinburgh 4-5 decades ago and it was decidedly Meh (for much this reason) -And again 3 decades ago I saw Aurora Australis in Tasmania and it was much less "meh" for the reasons of dark sky and 13 degrees more polar lattitude than Edinburgh (42 vs 55)