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Comment by alexpetralia | Hacker News Reader

For the uninformed (myself), how is the U.S. profiting from the war in Ukraine?

I suspect it would be from financing and selling military equipment to Ukraine and allies?

Short term, the US profits from the war in Ukraine mostly because it can serve its energy needs from its own production, while europe is reliant on imports. As liquifying gas and shipping it over the oceans is expensive, it is cheaper to have geographically sources, which means that Russia is one of the best sources of gas for europe.

The world market prices for gas have skyrocketed, which is good for every country that has net exports of gas, or is self-reliant (USA), and bad for every country that has net imports (EU). The country that has profited the most (relatively) is probably Qatar which sits on the single biggest natural gas field in the world whose value went up rapidly in the past year, and has a relatively tiny population.

The EU was Russia's biggest trading partner, and a cut in relations always hurts both sides. So it hurt the EU way more than it hurt the USA. It's not just about gas, the EU also imported minerals and exported many goods like cheese or wine to Russia.

It's also important to note that war is always extremely expensive, to both sides.

On the level of individuals, there were certainly many people in the US for whom the war had negative consequences economically, but there were also many for whom it had really positive ones, say people working for the oil and gas industry.

Actually natural gas prices haven't rallied much ... It's of course true that they spiked (to ~4 times the normal price) when Russia attacked, but they dropped back to normal.

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/uk-natural-gas

America is - perhaps - profiting geopolitically. Had the European Union and Russia come closer together then that block would represent a block - financially seen - which would be larger than America.

At least based on GDP, Russia's economy would not have added much to EU's economy:

  USA GDP 2021: 23315 Billion USD
  EU GDP 2021: 17177 Billion USD (~10x Russia)
  Russia GDP 2021: 1775 Billion USD

https://tradingeconomics.com/country-list/gdp?continent=worl...

Weaker europe generally, industry in europe shutting down (and US industry still running), demilitarization of europe (relying more on US), billions of weapons destroyed that will need to be bought again, and since the european industry is fucked, they'll be buying US made weapons, selling gas to europe at inflated prices, etc.

Europe will for sure buy US made weapons in the short term, but is ramping up domestic production short, medium and long term. In the long term, Europe is also moving away from gas.

Selling energy to countries that can no longer buy Russian energy.

Also they sell a lot of fossil fuels which skyrocketed in price.

You can largely ignore comments like that because they aren't useful and are generally conspiratorial without substance.

Equally you could say China and India are profiting from the war and are incentivized to continue to abstain and not add pressure to Russia to end the war because they are profiting off of cheap oil imports from Russia.

So what I'd say, because the inevitable response is some grand conspiracy about American natural gas companies "wanting the European market", is that anytime someone complains or tries to complain about American natural gas companies just remind them that everyone in the world including China and India are in the same grand conspiracy to pillage Russia.

If you believe that American oil and gas companies are so powerful as to cause the war in Ukraine, then you should just submit to their sublime and all-knowing global dominance because it's such as masterstroke and clear display of power that you have no hope of affecting change and should just get along and enjoy your day-to-day.

Or, you can understand the more simple truth which is that Putin is butthurt about the end of the Cold War and literally thinks that he should recreate the Russian empire but he and the Russian state apparatus misjudged the war and how NATO and western-allied countries such as South Korea, Japan, and others would respond.

You must have never looked at a map of NATO expansion over the last several decades.

There are many fake maps made by Russia floating out there about this, but even such blatant misinformation doesn't justify contradicting anything in GP's comment.

You know what worries me more? The Eurovision expansion! Look, they even took over Australia.

The terrifying expansion of NATO where member countries voluntarily ask to join to ensure their security from -- yup you guessed it -- the only country still invading their neighbors in Europe in the post-war period, Russia.

And some of these recent NATO countries, like Czechia and Slovakia, still remember the Soviet tanks rolling into them in 1968, as they tried to liberate themselves from their Soviet-imposed Communist governments: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prague_Spring#Soviet_invasion

Russia is currently run by Putin, who was a KGB agent in the Soviet regime.

If you compare number of wars Russia vs USA did post WW2, you know the aggressor. Why do NATO need to expand that too till borders of Russia n China. Is it just protection or suppression in plan? Where were we when there were so many wars againt people in Asia by US? And now we want to point against India or China not acting against Russia. Why should they do it? Even now countries like Yemen etc are suffering. But do we have sanctions against Saudis? No. Instead we still trade with them and US even sells weapons. So why should China or India care about what's happening in Ukraine.

USA doing well economically when Europe suffers not just in Ukraine. But we don't want to ack that. Why do people can't acknowledge that? We Europeans are doomed in couple of years. Took in lot of migrants and also dancing on tunes of USA.

Bad assumptions and comparables. Why would you compare "number of wars" and why would you arbitrarily stop that comparison at WW2? Other problem is just being in a war doesn't make it unjust, Korea is a good example. I'd actually challenge you to list out post-WW2 wars (actual troops on the ground) if you want to try to make this a point. We should include during WW2 as well since Russia joined up with Nazi Germany to invade Poland, Finland, and other countries or would it be convenient to forget about that?

Second you have a faulty premise re: "why do NATO need to expand". NATO doesn't need to expand, and whether it's at the borders of Russia or China isn't really relevant. NATO expansion that has occurred where it does border Russia (NATO doesn't expand or border China so already you're showing either a lack of geopolitical knowledge or you are just spewing propaganda) has been at the behest of those countries which seek to partner with NATO to provide security guarantees. Russia has invaded them in the past, the US has not. End of story there. Easiest way for Russia to not be "worried" about NATO is to stop being worried about it. Americans and Europeans don't really want to engage in war in Europe, and especially not with Russia since there isn't anything to gain.

> And now we want to point against India or China not acting against Russia.

Mainly because Russia engaged in an aggressive war against Ukraine, but if you're going to accuse some countries of trying to win economically against Russia then you have to include all countries that want to win economically against Russia, and that includes China and India who are more than happy to pay low rates for Russian oil and gas. If they cared about Russia they'd seek to stop the war so sanctions are lifted and Russians can enjoy a better standard of living and both China and India could return to paying 2x-3x prices for Russian oil so Russians can profit. Instead they want cheap oil.

> Even now countries like Yemen etc are suffering. But do we have sanctions against Saudis? No. Instead we still trade with them and US even sells weapons.

And China and India buy Russian oil while they engage in an aggressive war. Bad logic on your part. Not to mention other issues such as genocide against Uighur Muslims in China's own borders.

> USA doing well economically when Europe suffers not just in Ukraine. But we don't want to ack that. Why do people can't acknowledge that? We Europeans are doomed in couple of years. Took in lot of migrants and also dancing on tunes of USA.

US has been doing well economically regardless of whether or not Europe "suffers". If you hold that the Europe is doomed and just dancing to the tune of the USA then there isn't anything you can do, you have no agency, and you should stop caring and just try and enjoy your life.

Or you can accept that the world is much more complicated than what you are suggesting, and maybe Europe wouldn't be doing so bad (as you say) if it wasn't on the receiving end of a wonton and stupid Russian war to satisfy some butthurt dictator's imperial ambitions. Whoops.

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