> Are there studies on the rate of project success comparing effort in A: JDK, .NET; and B: Go, Lisp
No, there aren't and anyone saying otherwise is lying.
Almost all relevant data is tightly locked up in corporate software development silos (FAANG, enterprise middle ware, website or mobile dev shops, game devs, etc). The few studies that we have are limited to academic (basically toy projects) or OSS settings (and we don't really have the behind the scenes info from the corporate sponsors) and their sample sizes are pitiful.
Plus, what even is success? Adoption after 1 year? After 10 years (https://www.joelonsoftware.com/2001/07/21/good-software-take...)?
What we can measure instead is the number of developers, jobs, projects started based on public announcements, etc.
And for that it's no contest. Java/C# >> Go >>>>>>> Lisp.
The reasons are less important than the facts on the ground.
Especially since Common Lisp was first proposed in 1982 (41 years ago), so a really long time ago. However, its rivals aren't spring chickens either, these days. Java was launched in 1995, 27 years ago (early Java devs are close to retirement, already), C# was launched in 2000, 23 years ago, heck, even Go was launched in 2019, that's 13 years ago.
So we're in a reality were we have multiple competing ecosystems that are big and developed and have been around for decades. So the mainstream ones will be major for a long time.