I don’t know but my experience with other medical devices in this space supports your supposition that this will not be certified for medical use.
My understanding is that it’s a “safety” concern (read: liability). Because it would be providing “medical” advice the requirements around design are skewed to ensure that it doesn’t kill people rather than being permissive about the user experience [1]. Out of context, this seems sensible (therac anyone?) In practice this means that sensors like the Dexcom or Medtronic have “features” like alerts that cannot be silenced until the device is calibrated with blood. This makes sense from a safety perspective but is not particularly forgivable at 3am when the thing refuses to stop beeping until you feed it blood. I would guess that Apple will try, but they may find that their desired UX may not be compatible with the requirements imposed by the FDA process.
[1] This personal anecdote is old. I hope things have improved.