Record-Breaking Egg Profits Prompt Accusation of Price Gouging
modernfarmer.com
modernfarmer.com
This is pretty damning especially given the more deadly avian flu of 2015 did not cause prices to rise so significantly.
Collusion of the biggest producers would also explain why the more expensive eggs at the store did not rise as much as the cheaper brands.
The fancy egg prices weren't affected as much because those chickens live in better conditions and are therefore less likely to fall victim to a flu outbreak.
It's pretty simple: this 'self-regulation' is most harmful to the people who are most vulnerable during emergencies. The rich always have a lot more options to deal with scarcity.
And of course it could be some of this (legal), but also some amount of collusion to fix prices (likely illegal).
At some point, price gouging laws apply.
But below that point, if one company takes steps to prevent bird flu in their flocks, then they get rewarded when all the other flocks get bird flu.
Rather than looking at one company who managed to do well in the situation, I'd be curious to know what happened to overall egg producer revenues. If they went up, there's likely price gouging going on. If they went down or stayed the same, well, that's bird flu, and this company did well by planning for the future.
That one company happened to be one that invested a bunch of effort in preventing bird flu from infecting their flocks.
The article is low on specifics. This company may be "the largest" but how big is that? They could still be less than 5% of the market. If sufficient other farms had high levels of chicken death due to bird flu, it makes sense that the farms that did not would do well, while still tightly constraining supply.
> Egg supply is quite inelastic
But right before that you say
> Egg supply was hit hard by the bird flu
Then you say
> reducing demand by just 10% could easily force prices to double
I’m totally confused. Are you mixing up supply and demand?
Their lifestyle being made possibly by the 20%+ consistent profit margins from businesses that have relatively little risk from natural world events, from the safety of working behind a keyboard.
Not that software and hardware businesses do not have risks and are earning disproportionate profit margins, but the idea that businesses with risks such as viruses killing their whole supply or multi billion dollar oil rigs sinking could not also require sufficiently profit margins to attract investment.
I think something is going to happen that I am not allowed to talk on social media about, otherwise I would do just that.
edit: see, just the very mention of it gets me downvoted.
Does anybody have a some historic record of egg supplies and sales? I'd be curious how 2015 lines up with now.
Charging more for a product to allocate demand doesn't necessarily increase profits. If the profits aren't invested to raise production at the remaining farms, e.g. if supply is inelastic, which it might be in the short run (raising new chickens at farms that got bird flu would take just as long as at healthy farms, you can't force existing chickens to lay more eggs, etc.), then the profits ought to be rebated back.
In fact, retaining profit can be a sign of price gouging. It means you've run into inelastic supply and there's no place to spend that money to solve a short-run problem. On the other hand, maybe they'll reinvest it next year or over the long term into expansion, and you might want to reward investors and management at well run farms; but if this flu is a freak accident of nature where equally run farms might get it or not, then no.
The avian flu definitely got rid of some of that pricing pressure, but for what it's worth, the issue seems to be resolving itself. Wholesale egg prices are down 50% from their peak. Anecdotally, I've been able to get a dozen eggs at Sprouts for $3.25-3.50 for about a month (this is in San Diego, so something like $2.49-2.99 was normal pre-pandemic and $5.99 with largely empty shelves was normal two months ago).
If all of the large producers are in on it, then the market would not be able to sort itself out. It would be a trust situation.
As the article states, competition is decreasing due to acquisitions by egg producers.
Nope. Always Late Inventory(tm) means that no upstream supplier has any excess capacity.
So, even if you wanted to drop prices a bit and gain some customers, you can't. Your upstream supplier can't give you 10% more eggs because they are capacity constrained as well. Lather, rinse, repeat at every level.
Market correction requires a free and open market which doesn't exist.
What i don't understand is that why don't oil company stocks don't reflect these record profits. exxxon stock seems to be at 2014 levels.
If we know oil companies are price gouging then why won't we just buy those stocks and get in on the action.
From eggspensive thread. I think this is the first egg 'price gouging' event in my lifetime. Its the opposite of 'long term trend' that you say is necessary for stock price bump.
I was referring to the volatility of oil being factored into the price which is why Exxon Mobile's stock doesn't go up significantly when the price of oil goes up.
Why not though. It can be rare in some industries( eggs) and not rare in others(oil & gas). Why would there a be universal price gouging rule that applies to every industry.
> I was referring to the volatility of oil being factored into the price which is why Exxon Mobile's
Thats what i am asking you why is not factored into Cal-Maine's stock but factored into Exxon's stock.
"Because EXXON stock seems to be at 2014 levels."
[0] https://www.lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com/2017/12/great-moments-m...
Why would eggs be any different? It's not like they pop out of the chicken and land on your plate - there's a ton that goes into getting them into the store just so you can buy them.
Assuming egg production didn't experience significant cost increases seems precarious without evidence.
It's in the food industry - which suffered some of the most draconian restrictions on personnel and safety measures available at the time. For all we know, half of that cost increase could have gone to just sheets of plastic to hang all over the place and single-use disposable masks, gloves, boot coverings, hair nets and more that all had to be changed several times per day.
It's not Price Gouging simply because we don't like it folks...
> Collusion of the biggest producers would also explain why the more expensive eggs at the store did not rise as much as the cheaper brands
No, not at all. It simply indicates the more expensive brands had enormous margins before covid and were able to keep pricing more stable against rising costs.
Your cheap brands had nowhere to go, except raise prices when costs increase. This is so obvious and basic, it's weird it needs to be said.
Additionally, government policies don't happen in a vacuum folks. Policies made it difficult to produce and manufacture, and shocker - prices went way up. This is not rocket science...
> Cal-Maine’s gross profit jumped 10-fold from one 26-week period in 2021 to the same period in 2022, according to the company’s most recent quarterly financial statement. For the 26-week fiscal period ending in November 2021, gross profits were $50.4 million. In 2022 for the same period, gross profits were $535.3 million.
The net shows an increase as well, but not totally out of line with the increase in sales and costs, even when we look back several years.
Feb 2022: Y/Y net profit margin is +119.63%
May 2022: Y/Y net profit margin is +1633.06%
Aug 2022: Y/Y net profit margin is +442.88%
Nov 2022: Y/Y net profit margin is +7890.32%
The claimed amounts are gross profits - which do not account for majority of a company's overhead expenses, such as personnel, insurance, compliance, etc... ie. the things that increased in cost the most during covid.
Net Profit would be far more interesting, but even there we would expect an increase if prices were raised due to costs. It just won't be as sensational as the number currently being tossed around.
Not to mention we're comparing data to 2021, which had most things shut down. A better comparison would be to compare to 2019...
That is what makes it gouging. The profit margin was greatly increased through potential collusion and/or unfair pricing for what they correctly perceive as an inelastic good.
https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/CALM/cal-maine-foo...
> For the 26-week fiscal period ending in November 2021, gross profits were $50.4 million. In 2022 for the same period, gross profits were $535.3 million.
They had a near zero profit margin for 2021. And based on their record of profit margins, it seems like their business has been volatile since 2015 or so.
I am not an expert on the egg business or food in general, but there is no reason that a 10x increase in profit has to mean malfeasance.
Volatile businesses can have large swings in profit margin, otherwise no one would want to do them.
But that is beside the point that there is no set nominal “appropriate” profit margin for a given business.
That does not mean that businesses with high profit margins are not colluding, or corrupt, or acting in ways that should be illegal.
But it also means you cannot simply conclude from a few quarters of higher profit margins that a business is behaving unethically.
Watch the movie The Informant. It's a true story and we only know it happened because one guy was trying not to go to jail. What's happening now is nothing new.
Recently, I was stunned to find that the cheapest eggs in my area, by far, were at Whole Foods. Order of $2-$3 less per dozen than at other supermarkets.
Even though it's still a little more than a normal dozen, it's well worth it since they taste better.
Why would that be the case?
Couldn’t you argue that their pricing is more inflation resistant as their margins already allow for fluctuations in eg fuel prices?
Do you mean “their costs are almost certainly not higher in proportion to their profits.” I’m struggling to understand.
how is that your conclusion?
With very little additional detail, this says it's worse than 2015: https://foodinstitute.com/focus/bird-flu-cull-surpasses-2015...
It also seems completely possible to imagine a scenario where 15% of all eggs set to be produced never get maid. If you are a producer who had no damage to your chickens you are now getting bids in from grocery stores and areas that had never contracted you - and your profits increase.
My local Trader Joe's was out of eggs yesterday. Presumably because prices have actually gone down and people are hoarding. But nonetheless, stores definitely were selling out because the prices actually did not reflect demand.
“egregious profits reaching as high as 40%” (from the article).
More than likely the cost to produce an egg has only gone up 1.4x and the greedy corporations have raised prices 5x and stoked a media narrative that costs have increased 5x.
That's exactly what it means... If you create a product that adds enough value that people still want it with the high prices you'll be able to afford space at the remaining fabs. Low value add products will stop being produced until supply catches up. Yes, the TSMC customers will displace some of Intels/Samsungs, but the most important products will continue to be made.
The cost of fertilizer is at record highs. The cost of fuel has increased.
I’m not justifying the exact increases but supply chains are never simple, especially in the modern economy.
But if there is a cartel then that should be addressed regardless of the prices they charge.
Of course there doesn't need to be a cartel for the prices to be artificially high; if demand is high enough and nearly fixed then none of the producers will need to reduce prices in order to keep the sales volume high. Not all of them will chase higher market share at the risk of reduced margins.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU0000708111
That last spike, in 2015, seems to correspond with the deadliest highly-pathogenic avian flu outbreak to date at the time.
The spike before that in 2008? Another HPAI outbreak.
The consolidation the advocacy letter to the FTC mentions was already in place in 2015, wasn't it? Why did prices fall back after the HPAI epidemic (to levels lower than before it, in fact)? If it's all price fixing, why is it cyclic?
It's pretty macabre if you think about it
The claim actually assessed seems to be "record-breaking increases in the price of eggs [are caused] by price collusion among the nation’s top egg producers."
Collusion and price gouging are pretty different concepts as far as I know. It's somewhat hard to apply the 'price gouging' concept here -- a central example of price gouging would be to charge high prices for fuel or accommodations after a hurricane. It's easy to see the appeal of the concept (people are in a lurch and have few options to trade off with, making it very painful) in the natural disaster example, but that isn't the usual case with eggs.
Forcing prices to be low has the opposite problem: since the cost of stocking up is low, everybody does so. If you're at the grocery store and there's a hurricane approaching, why wouldn't you stock up on some non-perishable foods? After all, worst case scenario you pay a bit more than you would have (assuming you only buy stuff on sale), and you can consume them over time, so the net cost to you is very low. Of course, if every shopper stocks up for 2 weeks worth of perishables, the shelves will be empty within an hour.
You can hold and express the most offensive vile opinions on any subject you can imagine without it being hate speech. Don't let the very worst of people convince you that their hate speech is the same you holding or expressing minority or counterculture opinions on controversial topics. It's just a tactic to get normal people to defend them becasuse "they're coming for you too."
What do you propose should be the legal definition of hate speech then? And why do we need it as a separate category compared to existing laws (eg. existing laws against threats)?
The UN: Any advocacy of national, racial or religious hatred that constitutes incitement to discrimination, hostility or violence shall be prohibited by law.
Canada: Every one who, by communicating statements in any public place, incites hatred against any identifiable group where such incitement is likely to lead to a breach of the peace. Every one who, by communicating statements, other than in private conversation, wilfully promotes hatred against any identifiable group. Everyone who, by communicating statements, other than in private conversation, wilfully promotes antisemitism by condoning, denying or downplaying the Holocaust
Germany: Whoever, in a manner suited to causing a disturbance of the public peace incites hatred against a national, racial, religious group or a group defined by their ethnic origin, against sections of the population or individuals on account of their belonging to one of the aforementioned groups or sections of the population, or calls for violent or arbitrary measures against them or violates the human dignity of others by insulting, maliciously maligning or defaming one of the aforementioned groups, sections of the population or individuals on account of their belonging to one of the aforementioned groups or sections of the population.
Russia: Actions aimed at the incitement of hatred or enmity, as well as abasement of dignity of a person or a group of persons on the basis of sex, race, nationality, language, origin, attitude to religion, as well as affiliation to any social group, if these acts have been committed in public or with the use of mass media.
South Africa: No person may publish, propagate, advocate or communicate words based on one or more of the prohibited grounds, against any person, that could reasonably be construed to demonstrate a clear intention to be hurtful, be harmful or to incite harm, promote or propagate hatred.
Sweden: Anyone who, in a statement or in another message that is disseminated, threatens or expresses disrespect for a people group or another such group of persons with allusion to race, skin colour, national or ethnic origin, creed, sexual orientation or gender-transgender identity or expression
[1] https://www.ohchr.org/en/instruments-mechanisms/instruments/...
[2] https://laws-lois.justice.gc.ca/eng/acts/c-46/section-319.ht...
[3] https://www.gesetze-im-internet.de/englisch_stgb/englisch_st...
[4] https://www.imolin.org/doc/amlid/Russian_Federation_Criminal...
The problem I see with all of them is that they either allow prosecution of hurt feelings[1], or cover acts that are already covered by existing criminal legislation.
[1] being slightly facetious here
Going through the first few:
>The UN: Any advocacy of national, racial or religious hatred that constitutes incitement to discrimination, hostility or violence shall be prohibited by law.
In typical UN fashion, all of their pronouncements are filled with vague platitudes that, depending on how you look at it, are either routinely ignored by the signatories, or leave so much room for interpretation that it's possible to drive a truck through such a loophole.
What counts as "hatred"/"hostility"? Is it as simple as "[insert ethnicity here] are bad"? Going back to your previous claim of "You can hold and express the most offensive vile opinions on any subject you can imagine without it being hate speech", can you provide an illustrative example of "most offensive vile opinions" that would be allowed under that definition, and what would make it not allowed?
>Canada: Every one who, by communicating statements in any public place, incites hatred against any identifiable group where such incitement is likely to lead to a breach of the peace.
What does "breach of the peace" mean? This could mean anywhere between "hurt feelings" and "imminent lawless action". I'm sure that canada already has legislation that prohibits the latter, hate speech or not. So what's the difference here? Is it merely an aggravating factor? Are there things you can say that only become illegal if it's against an "identifiable group"?
>Germany: Whoever, in a manner suited to causing a disturbance of the public peace incites hatred against a national, racial, religious group or a group defined by their ethnic origin, against sections of the population or individuals on account of their belonging to one of the aforementioned groups or sections of the population, or calls for violent or arbitrary measures against them or violates the human dignity of others by insulting, maliciously maligning or defaming one of the aforementioned groups, sections of the population or individuals on account of their belonging to one of the aforementioned groups or sections of the population.
Same as above
From this description, I'm struggling to see the difference between "hate speech" laws and laws against inciting crime (eg. imminent lawless action standard in US law). Is your claim that the standards for the two should be the same?
If a hotel fills all their rooms for the night or a gas station runs out of fuel, we can be sure that wasn't the case, right?
Remember when the Fed had to breakout the emergency measures to save bankers from having to very periodically, very temporarily, pay .00273% interest instead of .00236% interest [1] on overnight loans? It's who you know.
But if I were to steelman, it would be something like, "taking advantage of a higher equilibrium price when it's known that there is no longer easy entry into the market", which would cover e.g. its usage in disaster scenarios.
[1] Total interest, not annualized rate. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21000023
Sorry for the sloppiness though.
Can I get a source for this? If we look at the charts for margins (as %)[1, we see that current levels correspond roughly with the levels seen during the 2015 avian flu.
[1] https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/CALM/cal-maine-foo...
When bird flu comes around, I keep it out. Which means I have same volume of eggs, and selling them at market prices... increased profit.
Then the mob comes around complaining that I'm price gouging.
Demonizing price gouging has nothing to do with resiliency. Corporations run things as lean as possible at all times because it's not a good gamble to keep a lot of stock of perishable items for the once every couple of decades shortage in your specific item.
Home Depot would have a reason to stock a few more snow shovels every winter and Valero would have reason to pay a few more trucks overtime before a hurricane if they knew that they'd make their money back and then some in expected value. They might decide to or not, they might be right or wrong, but that's reality.
It might not make sense even without laws limiting what you can charge for your products to stock up for such situations -- there are other ways we might want to incent things if it's worth it.
Note: this is talking about price gouging situations. The egg thing is a different situation, where the accusation -- despite the headline -- is collusion, not price gouging.
https://www.reuters.com/world/bird-flu-spreads-new-countries...
whether this is caused by market forces or not, it's bad for society, bad for americans, and bad for the overall economy to allow egg producers to collect money like this just because they decided they want to. whether or not it's legal is a question for a court. the question worthy of discussion is whether or not it's moral, or should it be legal?
* Raise prices to reduce demand until supply can meet demand
* Randomly decide who can buy eggs because any eggs in the store at the lower price point will always be out of stock.
The benefit of the first solution is that it encourages more suppliers to enter the market and correct the supply distortion... as long as it's actually market driven and not collusion driven.
No one is forced to buy eggs. They don't get to dictate prices, they can only get what people are willing to pay.
If you really don't like the price of eggs but really want them buy a couple of chickens and get them for cheap.
Don't get me wrong, I think regulating markets is a good idea and the US probably doesn't do enough of that. But I don't get how raising egg prices are bad for society - nobody has to buy them, and this are just regular laws of supply and demand at work. If that's just a regular market activity, it will sort itself out.
[0] https://www.reddit.com/r/InternetIsBeautiful/comments/118y19...
NOTE: Not me. I didn't make the site. Someone on Reddit did.
They'll pay just a month's worth of profit as a fine when they are finally caught years later by the feds
So totally worth it.
Also, most people don't actually interact with markets day to day. They shop at distribution centers which have contracts with suppliers.
To put it differently, throw out your economics textbooks because prices are far more complex.
The reason inflation happens is producers decide to raise prices. It's a human decision made by a small group of people (management or owners of companies), not the mass of people spending.
It would be nice if more people could realize that supply shocks can only be solved by supply increases.
It's almost like after enough rounds of consolidation, there's no guarantee that market economics will produce optimal outcomes for consumers.
Eggspensive - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=34897534 - Feb 2023 (113 comments)
From what I can find, eggs are considered one of the super foods by most people.