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I remember a Silicon Valley historian / older generation entrepreneur was speculating whether the entire environment of this area was a product of 2 things:

-- low interest rates

-- favorable capital gains rates

And any ebb/flow to that could dry up what we take as granted about the circumstances that produce the VC, startup, tech landscape we have been accustomed to.

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The low interest rates are a recent phenomenon. Rates were high for most of the period during which Silicon Valley grew into what it is now.

A simple fact that deflates any finance wizard's claim that an economy can't succeed on "high" interest rates which are still substantially lower than in an era of significant growth. All it means is that they get a more equitable chunk of the pie rather than most of it.

Previous high interest rate environments were accompanied by population growth and increases in labor productivity. I don't think there is any historical comparison to a high rate, no population/productivity growth scenario. I think at the very least those conditions won't provide for GDP increases but I also think capital re-allocation throughout the economy seems necessary to return to "healthy" growth conditions.

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