> The capabilities of these models are very likely to be radically different five years from now.
This is an article of faith. Specifically, it believes that at some point in the future the current paradigm will result in qualitatively different behaviors than the mimicry these systems (all GPT variants, "Attention is All You Need") currently perform.
Much ado has been made of the previous Symbolic AI researchers "moving the goalposts." In this criticism, it is the old guard of AI who is constantly bemoaning the current state of affairs as not real AI. But there is no actual goalpost moving. They have said it wasn't real AI at the beginning, and they are saying it isn't real AI now. Whether or not the symbolists' model was real AI is irrelevant: when you bake in "this is a rapidly moving field" as a hand-wavy explanation for why this may result in AGI, you are the one implying a moving of the goalposts.
If it ever turns out that these models need to be qualitatively different, then it will be clear that attention is not in fact all you need. In that eventuality, I fully expect the new guard to hem and haw and find some tricky sophistry to explain why they were right all along, despite qualitative shifts unattributable to adding mountains of new data or connectionist trickery.