I think these things would happen as a result of a process of escalations, not as a result of rational decisions.

Perhaps one side temporarily blinds a spy satellite with a laser[1], to prevent it from observing something sensitive. Then the other side reacts by blinding another satellite in the same way, but oops, the laser was a bit too powerful and it does permanent damage to the sensors. Then a single satellite is outright destroyed in retaliation. Etcetera.

[1] https://theconversation.com/russians-reportedly-building-a-s...