The work of a master craftsman using the most basic hand tools is still leagues ahead of any amateur with advanced tools, automation, fancy CNC, and lasers. Mass production is where the tech would favour that amateur. We are surrounded by cheap mass-produced disposable products and are well aware of their low quality. No gourmet chef should be threatened by the efficiency of McDonald's. Fortunately, our software systems are custom artifacts with zero marginal cost of reproduction. AI will make competent programmers more productive and take expert programmers to new levels.

One transformation will come when a single developer can do the work of a team of ten today. Like solo content creators who no longer need large studios to finance and organise massive production teams and expensive equipment, we'll see more independent developers and small teams creating innovative software with some artistic character. Without the drag of management and upfront financing, the threshold for success will be much lower.

Another will be a market for lemons. Employers will have to find ways to establish competence at building high quality, understandable and maintainable systems. AI can already pass Leetcode-style tests so these are clearly not the right measures.

This is my best optimistic take on things. The rest of the time I'm worried the AI is coming for our jobs.