> I saw a billboard for a lottery, it said "estimated lotto jackpot 55 million." See, I did not know that shit was estimated. That would suck if you won and they go, "oh, sorry, we were off by two zeros. We estimate that you are angry!"
It’s estimated because they don’t know exactly how many tickets will be sold leading up to the next drawing. I’ve not tracked it, but the times I’ve seen, were under 1-2 percentage points. If it bothers you that they said “estimated $55M” and instead you win $54,333,187.42, is it really that bad?
If you don't know the answer, underestimate and overdeliver. Or consider whether you should be doing it in the first place.
We are talking about a state government backed lottery, not a business.
> If you don't know the answer, underestimate and overdeliver.
Make up your mind, is estimating bad or not? The example I gave isn’t the only possible outcome, some times it’s 1-2% more than quoted when more tickets were sold.
And even then, it's perfectly consistent to say that estimating is only OK if it doesn't make you look better than reality.