EU Parliament confirms 2035 ban on new petrol and diesel cars | Hacker News Reader

EU Parliament confirms 2035 ban on new petrol and diesel cars

autocar.co.uk

39 pointsclouddrover49 comments

I wonder what the future used car market will look like when all new vehicles are eventually electric. Right now I'm driving a 10 year old Toyota which I bought for £5k and I could probably drive it for 10 more years if I continue taking care of it. Will there be a similar type of deal available once most cars are electric?

Here on the mainland EU I get the nasty impression that vehicles migrate. From West to East and from 1st world to 3rd world.

Richer countries effectively off-load to buy brand-new.

Ideally this probably shouldn’t be so and hopefully some electric cars will be actually built to last. That would be the green way to do it.

Not a chance. The trend is towards disposability. Tends to happen when you stick batteries and software in something.

You can buy a brand new EV today that is no more software-centric than the equivalent ICEV. There is no requirement that going to battery power means cars become more disposable. If anything, we should be able to leverage the technology to make them last even longer.

It’s one thing to build disposability into a product. I understand that part.

But it is another to design a vehicle to be prohibitively expensive and target it only at the elites.

This creates a hand-me-down effect where that vehicle then travels through owners from West to East.

Is it any wonder then that so many eurosceptic political movements have sprouted up when that one vivid status symbol difference is so visible? How are people in the East supposed to take Western commitments to green energy and equality seriously?

(Not to mention the fact that most vehicles then must have all these bizarre unnecessary low durability premium features by design.)

And from Central Europe to Southern Europe, where they keep being used beyond repair.

In Portugal we even had a time where used German cars would get a special plate starting with K, given the amount of cars being imported.

So in 2045 you could be driving a 10 year old Toyota and drive it for 10 more years if you take care of it.

Longer than that if you really need to because it's easy to replace anything on Toyota piece by piece

  > Will there be a similar type of deal available once most cars are electric?

No, the cost to replace batteries in EV's essentially makes them unaffordable and unmaintainable for lower earning people.

There could be a solution to this by 2035 though.

Hopefully! Otherwise let them eat cake, or something

This solution would be needed before enacting a ban.

Great news. Can't happen fast enough if you ask me, I hope we'll see a massive push for EV infrastructure soon.

Soo many car these days, the noise and air pollution is getting ridiculous. Try having a peaceful, relaxing walk in a city during busy hours, it feels like you're living inside an ICE. Super agitating. Only solution is to become tone deaf. Or noise canceling headphones.

Then you go far away into rural nature and can't help but think something went really wrong with humanity at some point.

In all except rural Europe which will likely hurt tremendously because of this, most people likely will not care too much. Unlike America a car is not a requirement in most of Europe due to public transportation being allowed to develop instead of it being neutered and made just good enough to exist.

Millions of people in Europe don’t have garages or easy access to charging stations. This policy is basically impossible in the near-term. The bet is that somehow in 12 years all of this gets solved. There is a real chance that ends up being the next biodiesel mandate and fails.

ban on "new sales", not on "existing cars"

so people will still be able to use their current one, and replace them with Electric or Hydrogen when it's time to replace their car

they'll probably then ban petrol/diesel from big cities, so they encourage people to upgrade

In that scenario people will just keep their old cars for far longer than what the planners are imagining. Like Cuba which still operates cars from 60 years ago. The danger is then you have a society dominated by very outdated cars and a greatly reduced industrial base.

Cuba has old cars because of US sanctions that killed their economy and couldn't import anything

Here it's different, purchasers have still access to cars, so when they need to change, they can change, and what's gonna be available is EVs, by the time they upgrade, infrastructure will be much different than what it is today

Doing it gradually is better, gives time to strengthen the grid network, gives enough time for innovations to come into the market, so people don't produce much tech junk and a recycling industry can emerge

The infrastructure may never materialize. Not to mention that the amount of EVs may never materialize, as they are hugely dependent on raw materials and can be subjected to OPEC-like embargos. It could easy turn into a vast market of used cars and very few new ones.

The infrastructure is already materializing. >50% of the 119k public charge points in NL were installed within the past 2 years, providing their services to 328k BEVs.

And if you don't ever want to wait for a charge, then you can often use public transit, or ride a bike.

You will need millions, and that includes a vast number of fast chargers plus grid upgrades.

it's mentioned that it's 0 emission cars

0 emission cars aren't just EVs

you have fuel cells too with hydrogen

by 2035, lot can happen

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2WeoeJyJmN4&t=455s

The saving grace is that there could be alternative options. But the law should allow for even more options, such as eFuels. The way it is written is not particularly open-minded or designed in a feasible way.

2035 is not very far off for the type of infrastructure changes needed. This will have be a landslide of investment, and it could all go to waste regardless.

So what you’re saying is there’s a huge business opportunity here for sweet government corrects Ava subsidies?

So we should stick with the cars that use raw materials that ARE dependent on OPEC embargos?

Did the alternative suddenly become banning all EVs? No, the alternative is to not ban any type of car. Unless everyone attempts an embargo all at once, you will have backup options in that case.

How can you have a backup for cars. If there was an embargo everyone can't suddenly have an ev and vice versa for combustion

The point isn't to be invincible. If you have a diversity of cars, any one kind of embargo will only harm a portion of your car market. If you mandate only one type of car, then an embargo can completely stop your ability to make new cars.

Again, if there was an embargo how would all the people who have gas cars suddenly get evs? It would take decades.

There will be some EVs in that scenario. Enough to tide things over. But in a world with only one option, anything that blocks that one option will destroy the whole car industry.

Oil blockades stop the fuel for existing cars. Lithium or whatever blockades stop new car or repairs of EVs.

That means people could still drive EVs even if there is an embargo because we'll always have power.

But oil blockades won't stop the production of new ICE cars. A battery-related blockage will stop new car production. That would be a big crisis for automakers.

So now your concern is for a specific set of businesses not people in general?

Again, the point is to not ban any kind of car as a redundancy. You've created an elaborate narrative of what you suppose your opponent is claiming. It is time to stop.

Actually, rural Europe is the place that will benefit from it: EU has been subsidizing photovoltaic installations on single family homes for like a decade now, and switching to EV makes most sense to people that can easily produce their own electricity. It's people in cities that will be forced to compete for limited charging stations that will suffer.

The only thing holding back public transportation in most of the US is lack of sufficient tax base. Recall that the UK is smaller than Oregon and has 15x the taxpayers. Even so, having visited areas of the UK outside London, there are plenty of spots with decidedly mediocre public transit availability.

But the UK is no longer part of EU

Europe is pretty damn big and train rides are expensive.

This is not quite correct. A car is very much a requirement for a lot of people. The structure of society is build around cars. This begins if people need to care about family members living 20-30km away. This become an immense logistical challenge without a car. People would need to reduce their working times and still would suffer an immense hit to their free time since any other transport option needs twice the time at least. People say public transport is widely spread in Europe, but that is just not true. The cities are decent, but otherwise using public transportation is a huge time sink.

Some dream to reduce individual traffic down to 10-20%, but I believe this is a naive pipe dream and will be a huge hit to life quality for the majority.

We also have no infrastructure for EV at all. Most people don't have a garage to even be able to get a dedicated charging station. Public infrastructure would cost billions and energy demand is also a problem...

If EVs cannot be produced in a large number for whatever reason, resources or infrastructure problems or whatever, car manufacturers will demand billions upon billions from the Union because it forced them to switch. This is again a bad policy. If EVs are an alternative and affordable, they will remove combustion cars from the streets without any ban.

In many European cities not everyone is priviledged to live near a bus stop or subway line, and even so, not all lines have a connection every 10 minutes.

I find some of the concerns written about lack of charging infrastructure odd.

Won’t petrol stations just become fast electric charging stations with cafe and wifi to take meetings…?

Electricity is available in everyone’s home which I expect to service 80-95% of charging demand anyway.

I’d expect long >300km trips to be <5% of in total transportation?

They better increase in size 25x times to accommodate the backlog of cars waiting to charge.

If they ban petrol and diesel cars, then they should do it equally - including luxury cars, supercars etc.

If the luxury, sports and race cars were supposed to be "trickle down providers" of tech, why didnt they shift towards fuel econnomy yet?

According to BP (pdf https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/country-sites/en_au/austra...) stored fuel whether petrol or diesel has a shelf life of about one year. If no new ICE cars are sold in Europe past 2035 as per this law, and existing ICE cars have a generous twenty-five year lifespan, we can estimate that Europe will lack the infrastructure to support daily use of your ICE car by around 2060.

Have you calculated what the minimum volume of a refinery is to continue to be economically solvent? How long a combustion vehicle lasts is immaterial, what’s important is at what part of the demand death spiral the petrol supply chain no longer operates. You’d want to track refinery volumes and closures to know when the last barrel of gasoline will be produced at scale, at which point folks would have to covert to ethanol for local production and consumption (or biodiesel for diesel engines).

https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights...

https://www.snl.com/articles/409665336.png

https://archive.is/PKBhP

So if my e-bike craps out in the boonies, can I take a charge off an e-car ? If not, why not ? Why aren't e-cars making electric power like totally fungible ?

Good, reducing our dependency on dictatorships is paramount.

Wow. This is awful.

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