The More You Look for Spy Balloons, the More UFOs You’ll Find
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But the more concerning aspect for the US government is that foreign spies see UFO believers as easily exploitable marks. Thus the justification is counterintelligence people must sometimes lie to organize the security threats in an open network. This combined with an occasional Air Force psyop explains 99.99% of UFO sightings.
Sure there’s something *else* going on too, evident by the elasticity of true love, psychedelics and the general mystery of life’s existence. But for now, reality seems hard coded to prevent the explanation.
What’s wrong with that? If there were Martians, they would not have problem destroying our craft we sent on Mars so far.
As much as I want ETs to exist, I really hope we wouldn't shoot them down if they were just observing.
Or maybe it’s a simulation and aliens are simply users of the program.
Or it’s just more psychological warfare.
I have no idea what is going on and these are just random ideas, my point is simply that we have been seeing similar stuff for a long while now. We say it’s not us or china. If it’s not us or china, I don’t see it being another countries. If it’s private companies, what are they doing and why? Flying without transponders is highly illegal and unethical so maybe some sort of massive criminal organization that is highly technical and super secretive but that seems improbable. It’s not extraterrestrials exceeding the speed of light or extraterrestrials from the solar system because those are also improbable. So WTF is it then?
I was thinking of scenario where sailboat drone washes up on North Sentinel Island. Our civilization is much more advanced, they can't touch our airplanes or spacecraft. The drone is advanced, with solar panels, computers, and plastic, but is cheap and disposable. The islanders could row out in canoes and defeat it with stones and sticks.
The same people are laughing at primitive tribes shooting arrows at planes flying above their island. Surely there's a huge technological gap between anything we have now, and alien spaceships capable of interstellar travel?
https://www.eyeofmidas.com/scifi/Turtledove_RoadNotTaken.pdf
Is this a measurement from a study you conducted?
Asking because it seems like a hand wave, and 99.999% of those kinds of hand waves fail to account for important details that don't fit the dismissal narrative...
And I mean that's five nines right there... :-)
Military or State psyops usually include drugs of sorts. For example, there are many sightings of Orange Orbs, these are flares being used on military training grounds which the public see and phone in or talk about on social media. Some of the Police are in on this.
UFO's and aliens are for those who dont believe in the religious psychological warfare programs using God.
Religions were invented about 6000 years ago, history tells you that shadowy people have been either using drugs typically hallucinogens or drugging people with hallucinogens in order to create something supernatural.
When watching ghost hunters or clairvoyants, with talking spirits from hundreds of years ago, what these people forget is how language has changed, some of todays vocabulary (words) simply did not exist a few hundred years ago, and yet people keep buying into it on places like Youtube and elsewhere.
Superstition & religion is a psychological coping mechanism for some and a way of psychologically harming people if someone claims to have a put a curse on someone. Some state employees play along with this, the medical profession give many people a religious or demonic like experience. Too many anti-histamines reportedly give people a hallucinogenic experience seeing a black shadow man, other types of hallucinogens give people psychedelic blocky Minecraft-like experiences, like Sativa giving people machine elf like visuals.
Humans and other animals biggest weakness from "hacking" by other humans is the use of drugs.
I think adrenaline can also cause hallucinations if the claims of people consuming large amounts of speed and tripping out is anything to go by, so its quite likely a fearful situation which spikes adrenaline is making people trip out.
Dimethyltryptamine is the main drug we make and release which gives us our dreams.
It also didn’t seem like it was that easy as it took two missiles.
I have no answers, I have no real guesses, but I am not ruling anything out.
It's not obvious that aliens who reach Earth must be much more technologically advanced than we are. They could have come here in a generation ship, which probably only requires builders who are a little ahead of us, and that only in fields like bioengineering.
For most of what they'd need for a generation ship our current level of technology is fine. In particular there is no reason they would have to be better than us at aircraft or weapons technology, so whatever vehicles they bring along to use when they want to enter a planet's atmosphere might be no better than what our current air forces have.
Plus this goes against the common narrative that these craft display propulsion capabilities that appear to defy physics, which (if we're assuming aliens) implies anti-gravity at a minimum. No one is claiming to encounter UAPs or UFOs with wings and conventional rockets. Again, that's something we only kind of know how to do on a napkin, and even then only if we fudge the numbers.
At the very least, I would want to assume any civilization capable of interstellar travel to be at least 1000 years ahead of us, technologically. Even with generation ships and no space magic. It's just a big stupid round number but I intend it to mean generally as far ahead of us now, in terms of scientific knowledge and technological progress, and assuming a few paradigm shifts ahead, as we are ahead of the Middle Ages.
My guess is that we'll be able to develop human-level artificial intelligence a lot sooner than 1000 years from now.
At which point it would be a lot easier to send AI probes to explore the galaxy and/or make first contact with another civilization than to build a generation ship.
The odds of bumping into an alien civ that is anywhere near technological parity with us are vanishingly small. Given that the universe has been capable of hosting habitable planets for ~10 billion years, the median age of alien civilizations could easily be billions of years old. Meanwhile our civilization is a paltry .00001 billion years old.
It could be that the only ones we'd actually bump into are those who built and launched generation ships not too long after they became capable of it, which would be when they are not too far ahead of where we are now.
Right now we just don't know enough to say what it is like out there. We do know that we sure haven't been able to detect any signs of alien civilizations. But we don't know if that is because very few civilizations start, or they start but something kills them before they start doing things we could detect, or they are only at a stage where they are doing such things for a relatively short time and then they switch to technology that we can't detect.
The absence of evidence isn't evidence of absence. We've only been "looking" for life for ~50 years!
> It could be that almost all civilizations suffer an extinction event before they get technologically advanced enough to prevent it or survive it.
It seems to me that we've got three possible scenarios here:
Scenario A: There is NOT a Great Filter. In this scenario, we have a large number of civs with a high median age. Scenario B: There IS a Great Filter. It catches between 0-99.99% of civs. In this scenario, we still have a large number of civs with a high median age. Scenario C: There IS a Great Filter. It catches 100% of civs. In this scenario, we have a small number of civs with a lower median age (some ${Civ Age at which Filter Occurs} / 2)
It's hard for me to imagine that we're living in Scenario C. For a Great Filter to catch 100% of civs, it would have to be baked into the laws of physics!
Even then, the Great Filter would have to occur VERY early in technological development for the odds of technological parity to be good. And, of course, an early-acting Great Filter means fewer extant civilizations at any point in time, lowering the odds of an encounter occurring in the first place.
The Pentagon began incorporating high-altitude balloons into the military kill chain with a focus on hypersonic weapons, in line with the Space Development Agency program for commercial satellite constellations.[28]
Balloons could be preferred as a platform for their low cost, lower altitude, and less predictable trajectories compared with satellites."
https://wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Chinese_balloon_incident#His...
It seems right now the narrative is nobody knows what these were, and that the debris may never be located.
This is a conspiracy theorist's dream.
I imagine there could be methods of confusing cameras, especially when there are no points of reference in the sky other than the object itself. Maybe some human tech cloaking methods are sufficient to obscure an object.
As for locating the debris, you would think that would be easy... but we're still finding bits of the Columbia space shuttle here and there.
Huh? Cameras turn lights into rgb, you can't confuse them, if not paint your balloons blue.
See also how we can get crisp images of distant galaxies, but getting images of the equipment at the Apollo landing sites is elusive from anywhere farther away than lunar orbit.
I definitely wouldn’t assume we can immediately get detailed photos of a drone-sized object flying at high altitude.
The big Chinese balloon was ~300ft across (and the equipment ~100ft) at 60kft would be almost half the size of the moon... 0.25deg or easily visible by eye. And you can get shots of that with a hand held mobile phone at night. Any amateur astronomical camera set up is capable of 1-4 arc sec (better than 0.0001deg) and daytime exposures would be <10msec.
So it's pretty easy to get 1ft resolution at that altitude. Getting 1inch is harder, but doable especially with multiple images, which is possible now even for amateurs. If it was moving at 100mph (closer to 30-50) that's only <1ft during the exposure time (still 50x faster than the moon). The gov can do much better, but I wouldn't count on mm resolution.
These objects are small, to get a good view requires flying a very fast jet very close to a small relatively stationary object of which you may only get a split second glance.
In the transcript I saw, the two F16 pilots can't really agree if the object they are dealing with is a balloon or not (this wasn't from the first shootdown of the Chinese balloon which was much larger and easier to identify), eventually one pilot just assumes it is as a best guess.
This could explain why we haven’t gotten more info from government. They don’t want to admit that shot down weather or scientific balloons. Smaller balloons are likely to not be Chinese. It could also be that government is equally confused and are waiting to find the wreckage.
For any territory that a camera can get detailed photos of something, there is much greater area (volume) which over which it can get poor photos. So the more cameras you have getting better photos, the (many times) more bad photos you'll have.
This obviously does leave room for speculation and thus conspiracy theorists, but what justification do conspiracy theorists need anyway? The crux of most conspiracy theories is making a mountain out of a mole hill.
Also, there's no reason to assume that the goal of revealing all this information is to put the public at ease. Maybe the goal is to drum up public support for war, or at least, some adventure in brinksmanship. Or to make the administration look more hawkish than it is. Or there's some weird funding/ego/prestige power struggle between departments and generals. Or someone is playing a public game of cover-your-ass. Or is making his enemies in the organization look bad, by airing the dirty laundry.
Figuring out which is which when it comes to the military leaking secret information is an exercise in Kremlinology.
https://twitter.com/Snowden/status/1493641714363478016
He doesn't know shit when it comes to this topic.
https://hackaday.com/2017/10/30/quick-and-easy-solar-hot-air...
Since they are filled with plain air they could stay up a long time. They probably have no radar cross section, though they'd probably have a thermal signature.
[1] https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/40054/adversary-drones...
Imagine there was an incident involving one or more flying objects, perfectly mundane and of terrestrial origin, being seen where they shouldn't have been, or misidentified in an embarrassing way. The kind of incident that would, normally, get some of the people involved fired. Except in this case, recorded evidence is scant and inconclusive enough that the people in question can report it upstairs as UFO sighting, and thus get to keep their jobs. Protocol having been followed, nobody bothers them about it.
Fast forward some amount of years, and the report ends up being leaked, declassified, or just read by the wrong person - either way, the public gets wind of it. What then? It would be nice for the government to tell the public what really happened, but the only people in position to do so are the ones who would get fired or imprisoned the moment they admit it might have not been an UFO after all. So of course they'll stay out of the spotlight, and hum the "X-Files" theme when asked directly.
In such cases, there would be no aliens, no secret military hardware - nothing The Government tries to keep silent about. Just ordinary people covering an ordinary fuckup with an unusual story, and sticking to it over the years.
https://twitter.com/wildweatherdan/status/162132105562836582...
The same person posted a similar analysis of an object shot down over Alaska that suggested it could have been a National Weather Service balloon: (or trying hard to pretend to be one)
https://twitter.com/wildweatherdan/status/162416175081471182...
>In a sign of how closely the United States had been monitoring the balloon surveillance program directed by the Chinese military recently, U.S. officials said in interviews that they began tracking the spy balloon as it lifted off from Hainan Island in southern China in late January.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/13/us/politics/ufo-spy-ballo...