Hacker News Reader

Comment by hackandthink | Hacker News Reader

I do not support any party in this war, though I'm not really pacifist.

It's not worth dying for NATO membership or an ukrainian Crimea. And nobody should be forced to fight in any war.

It is about cost/benefit.

If Ukraine would tell: We are looking for a compromise (no NATO membership, Crimea belongs to Russia, ...), I could change my mind and support them.

If Russia would invade another country there's a new cost/benefit ratio.

And I think Russia will not invade any western country. I live in Germany and I'm not scared of Russia. They (Soviet Union actually) left East Germany peacefully.

View on HN

> It is about cost/benefit.

This is truer then you know, the world must make the cost of Russia trying to take over another country so expensive both financially and militarily that they do not try this again.

Don't forget Ukraine is not the first, Russia has invaded and sometimes even entirely annexed countries in the past.

> If Ukraine would tell: We are looking for a compromise (no NATO membership, Crimea belongs to Russia, ...), I could change my mind and support them.

Ukraines mere existence is what upsets Russia, it's the reason for this war. It has nothing to do with Crimea and nothing to do with NATO.

Russia wants all of Ukraine, they want to subjugate them completely.

Maybe I'm wrong. But I think John Mearsheimer got it right in 2014:

"Next, Putin put massive pressure on the new government in Kiev to discourage it from siding with the West against Moscow, making it clear that he would wreck Ukraine as a functioning state before he would allow it to become a Western stronghold on Russia’s doorstep."

This is happening now.

"Russia wants all of Ukraine, they want to subjugate them completely."

I don't think so. Russia annexed the territory it really wants. If Ukraine demilitarizes they would make a deal.

https://www.mearsheimer.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/Why-t...

We’ve been there - Ukraine was friendly to Russia until 2014, and we know what happened.

> I don't think so. Russia annexed the territory it really wants. If Ukraine demilitarizes they would make a deal.

How can you possibly make a lasting deal with a country that wipes their arse with international agreements when it’s no longer convenient for them?.

If you think a “deal” with Russia would do anything other then let it rearm itself and reinvade the rest of the country I have a bridge to sell you.

After all, Russia already promised to never invade Ukraine and to never never threaten the sovereignty of Ukraine in exchange for them giving up their nukes.

How well did that “deal” go for Ukraine?.

> I don't think so. Russia annexed the territory it really wants. If Ukraine demilitarizes they would make a deal.

Then you haven’t been listening to what the Russians have been openly saying on tv themselves.

The Russians are very open about how Ukraine is a fake state, how it is a mistake and how its cultural identity should be destroyed.

Maybe you are right and I am naive.

There's propaganda everywhere and it is hard to get the real picture.

I checked the Russia/Ukraine Peace negotiations of 2022 (Wikipedia). Russia seemed to be interested in striking a deal. (1)

And I agree: a deal makes no sense if you can't trust your adversary.

(1) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Russia%E2%80%93Ukraine_pe...

-- Actually I'm not capable getting the official position of Russia towards negotiations. For example I can't parse this statement of Peskov:

https://tass.com/politics/1577411

You don't think Russia would invade the Baltics? Or are they not west enough for you? Could you outline the difference between a Western country that Russia wouldn't dare invade vs nations that in your mind deserve to be ethnically cleansed?

No country deserves to be ethnically cleansed.

I meant "western" geographically here.

I'm sure Russia won't invade the Baltics.

But I'm not sure that Russia will never invade Azərbaycan. (Azərbaycan has oil and is not in NATO and frome time to time they attack Armenia or Armenia attacks Azərbaycan).

I remember the second (Putin's) war in Tschetschenia. I've known since 20 years that Russia/Putin is ruthless.

How to deal with Russia? I actually opt for appeasement and containment.

>How to deal with Russia? I actually opt for appeasement and containment.

Ie repeating the steps that led to the current war (and a couple of previous ones). You expect a different outcome next time?

I see Russia as aggressive middle power with nukes which tries to be a regional hegemon. (sorry for the Mearsheimer jargon)

You can't fight it down completely, because of nukes. You can't destroy Russia's military industry.

I would treat it as a smaller and lighter version of the Soviet Union. NATO did not interfere in Hungary, Czechoslovakia, and Poland back then. These countries are free now which is great.

Countries like Georgia, Ukraine, Azerbaijan should try not to poke the bear and should not gamble that NATO will bail them out.

This is bad. Maybe it will get better with smart politics but it sure get's worse with bad politics.

I'm not advocating NATO boots on the ground. It is the Ukrainians that are dying in the trenches. Zelensky has been quite clear: just give us the tools we'll do the fighting.

It is so depressing. There is disgust of war and there is disgust of injustice, everybody is rationalizing.

Reply on news.ycombinator.com