Bay Area plan to ban natural gas
sfchronicle.com
sfchronicle.com
1) PG&E electricity costs are among the highest in the country per KWH. They have received approvals to increase these astronomical costs by 10% in the near future. Gas is cheaper, by a lot.
2) Any time we have winds or hot weather or cold weather, the grid is under pressure and we are asked to curb our electricity usage.
3) In the winter and summer, our monthly bill for a home of 2 with the thermostats set to 63 in the winter and 79 in the summer is $300+.
Someone else’s mileage and bills might be different. But 62 is cold in the winter. 79 is hot in the summer. Sometimes unbearably so.
If the Bay Area wants to go this route, PG&E needs to be reined in, SIGNIFICANTLY. Bills are borderline unaffordable right now; the future isn’t any cheaper.
a) Water heater is a heat pump set to high efficiency.
b) Construction is 2016, so relatively new.
c) We have done a lot to insulate the home.
Net-net, this is an electricity cost issue; we are paying $0.42/KWH on average. This despite having some solar. This is not a profligate usage issue.
> Net-net, this is an electricity cost issue; we are paying $0.42/KWH on average
The current time of use peak summer rate is $0.42/kWh. The winter off peak is $0.30/kWh. The only way you can be paying an average of $0.42 is if all your consumption for the year is between 4pm and 9pm during the summer, which is impossible.
Summer on-peak is $0.49 per KWH (1). Our average is $0.38, I had a math error.
Even with my error, the price of electricity in California is exorbitant and the grid is easily stretched to the limit => both will be exacerbated by increased demand from EVs and housing without gas lines. My math mistake doesn’t change the overall narrative.
1. https://www.pge.com/pge_global/common/pdfs/rate-plans/how-ra...
All else equal, a heat pump in the Bay Area should cost about the same or slightly less to operate as a natural gas furnace during the heating season. Natural gas is 3x cheaper than electricity per unit of energy, but heat pumps run at near-optimal efficiency in the local climate. Over the heating season mine achieves an average COP of 4.0 (4 units of heat for every 1 unit of electricity input).
> Bryant is the manufacturer, if memory serves.
It's a worthwhile exercise to look up the expected maximum efficiency of your unit to see if it is achieving that.
> Even with my error, the price of electricity in California is exorbitant and the grid is easily stretched to the limit => both will be exacerbated by increased demand from EVs and housing without gas lines.
Prices for electricity are absolutely high in California compared to other states. This is for many reasons, not the least of which is the cost of natural gas itself, which sets the spot price paid for all other sources. It's also because of the utility maintenance issues brought to light by the wildfires.
However, according to PGE's own data, the average household gas bill this January is $195/month. That's on top of what people are paying for electricity. 2 years ago, it was $114/month [1]. That is a 72% increase. In the same time period, average annual natural gas only rates went up by 27%. The reason for the discrepancy is that natural gas pricing is moving toward more closely matching seasonal price variations, so much higher price/therm in the winter and lower in the summer. For 2023, winter rates will be 40% higher than summer rates, whereas in 2021 that difference was only 10%.
Therefore today, you would probably be paying more to heat the same house with a natural gas furnace than with a heat pump. The vast majority of people who use natural gas for heating are discovering that reality right now.
Furthermore, there's not much of a future in which natural gas gets cheaper as an energy source during the heating season. That's just the reality of that energy source.
Meanwhile, peak electricity rates have increased 22% since 2021 (when peak rates were $0.40/kWh), but the seasonal variations in electricity demand are currently the opposite of natural gas (lowest in winter, highest in summer).
In the long term, we can expect winter electricity demand to rise as more heat pumps are deployed. However, even if we exclusively burned natural gas (which we won't) to generate the electricity to meet that demand, it makes far more sense to do so in a combined cycle plant that is 50-60% efficient and sending it to heat pumps getting 3-4 COP, yielding a 200%+ "efficiency", than to burn it in furnaces that achieve on average 80% efficiency.
Try a FLIR survey and a positive pressure test survey of the house. Those should help direct future insulation efforts.
A unit that does ducted heating and AC is around $13k installed. And the water heater is probably around $4k installed if you include electrical (which you're gonna have to if you have gas). So you're looking at forcing about 2 million houses to spend $17k to save 89 people per year. That's $34 billion. 89 people a year.
The state would be bankrupt if they had these safety standards anywhere else, but when it's other people's money, who gives a fuck.
We need to better understand the downsides and alternatives of proposed, not just the upsides. We need to not call people who point them out "killers who hate the environment" and instead listen and work together toward the best solution possible, not the one that sounds the best without understand the details.
Is your estimate of $13k in the bay area? Are you including ducting in that estimate? Is that for a 2,3, or 4 ton system? Does that include electrical upgrades?
I’ve seen the list prices of 2 ton systems at $4k (if available). I have a modern AC/Furnace and ducting, but a very inconvenient gas line.
I actually just paid $2200 for a gas line to another location in the house for a tankless, so I’m not planning on switching to gas completely.
The water heater situation seemed more annoying to try to go electric. The tankless heaters are cheaper, but you’re looking at 30kW/120A for 9GPM service. I decided it was slightly cheaper to go gas (heater will now be outside, so heat pump would have been hard too)
For me, I really needed the inline tankless installed outdoors - so it will be worth it (lose a messy laundry room, gain a bedroom). I figured upgrading to 400A service panel would take longer and be more annoying than doing gas.
Assuming the Bay Area won't construct a significant number of new homes we only need to look at existing homes. The rule only covers new installations, which will be mostly people replacing broken systems and a few upgrades. How much more will it cost to replace your furnace when it has to be electric compared to when you could replace with gas?
That turns out to be the wrong question too, though. Per Angie's list the averages heat pump install costs $1,514 less than the averages gas furnace install [1]. Gas vs electric boilers costs around the same, so let's say the savings from the heat pump install and the loss from needing to upgrade your electrical system even out and the unit replacements cost about the same.
But you lose money on the routine operating costs. A rough estimate [2] based on Bay Area Dec 2022 energy prices [3] estimates that a 60,000 btu gas furnace would cost $579 less annually to operate than an analogous 5 ton heat pump with a good HSPF rating (10).
Is this a crazy amount to spend every year per household on saving that many people?
(Interestingly the the Bay Area spends around the same on cops per household[4], but there's no good data on how many lives that saves.)
Edit: Even if you disagree that the replacement costs about the same, remember to divide the delta by the 10-15 year lifespan of the unit so that your cost and lives saved are in the same unit.
[1] https://www.angi.com/articles/how-much-does-heat-pump-cost.h... [2] https://www.angi.com/articles/how-much-does-it-cost-install-... [2] https://www.pickhvac.com/hvac/furnace-vs-heat-pump-cost/ [3] https://www.bls.gov/regions/west/news-release/averageenergyp... [4] SF + San Jose + Oakland police, not counting state troopers, was 1.079B in 2021 per https://cities.bythenumbers.sco.ca.gov/#!/year/2021/operatin...
But existing homes? They definitely need to first figure out the objections in the article:
* supply chain capacity
* cost - we would need subsidies for less affluent people
* time to having heat or hot water again after my furnace / water heater breaks and I’m forced into an emergency switch to electric
Basically need to consider that while all of your combined appliances may use far more than your service can supply, they will rarely to never need to all run at the same time. You can interlock appliances and give them some priority so that, for example, when your electric range is on your other power hungry appliances can not be.
You wouldn't actually notice or care about this in reality since in a 24h period everything in your home will receive more than ample power just spread out over a longer period of time.
The only downside is that not many electricians are capable or willing to install or service a system like this. I'm sure that pool will grow and I'm quite sure that in the future this kind of demand-side management is going to be effectively mandated and I don't see that as a good thing.
By doing this you shift loads off peak and flatten the demand curve for power, this is an absolute win for transmission/grid capacity (they are most efficient at 100% utilization) and a huge win on generation capacity!
That is absolutely insane if you're correct, but, not unexpected from CA.
Edit: I went ahead and asked the AI
What is this system called? Who are purveyors of this kind of system?
> The system being referred to is called a "load management system" or "load shedding system." It involves interlocking appliances and prioritizing their usage to manage electricity demand and prevent overloading of the electrical service. Some electric utility companies and home automation companies offer load management systems, and electricians may also be able to install and service these systems.
How does it work? How do the appliances communicate?
> A load management system works by using a controller device that is installed in the home's electrical panel. This controller communicates wirelessly or via wired connections with the various appliances in the home. The controller is programmed to manage the electrical load by monitoring the power usage of each appliance and turning them on or off in a prioritized sequence when there is a risk of overloading the electrical service.
> For example, the load management system may be programmed to turn off power to non-essential appliances when the air conditioner is turned on, or to delay the start of the dishwasher until the washing machine has finished its cycle. The communication between the controller and the appliances is typically done using a protocol called Zigbee or Z-Wave, which allows for wireless communication over short distances.
https://www.amazon.com/Ready-America-3333-Earthquake-Emergen...
Years ago when I signed up for pge i chose community aggregates renewable energy source instead of buying from pge. Couple years ago it was more expensive to buy renewable + delivery charges then just buying from pge, even though pge had at least half of it coming from gas and coal. Yet renewable should be much cheaper. So i suspect right now cost of heat pump heating isn’t gonna be cheaper than gas, given upfront cost. Utilities can’t achieve renewable efficiency and maintain grid, yet its ok to push it on everyone else.
Heat pump however makes total sense if you have solar panel and battery. But again, upfront cost.
What was that "n-gate" phrase "a city at war with it's citizens"?
Source: https://www.earth.com/news/gas-electric-eco-friendly-home/
I believe that proposal is dead this time but they're not going to stop trying. Several long term trends are challenging the viability of a public electrical grid, among them the low cost of solar.
I assumed furnaces and water heaters are better ventilated, so this surprised me. Yes, those two emit more nitrogen oxides, but we should be more worried about them indoors than out.
Cooking is a major source of indoor air pollution but not due to using gas but due to the polution from cooking itself.
Not to be overly snide, but does the Bay Area even do any “new residential construction”?
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/11/climate/gas-stoves-biden-...
If national democrats ever said to california democrats "no that is too crazy" there might be an argument here but instead what they say is "shh don't talk about that now we'll do it later"
* natural gas -> fire -> heat -> electricity in massive generator -> home -> induction stove -> pan
compare to
* natural gas -> fire -> heat -> pan
? And resistive is worse than induction.
Not to mention the pollution from the power plant is not going directly into your home (or face).
This is not a small or hypothetical impact. From the article:
> The air district estimated that the new rules for homes would cut nitrogen oxides enough to prevent 89 deaths per year in the Bay Area.
* natural gas -> home furnace -> fire -> warm air
vs
* natural gas -> fire -> heat -> electricity in massive generator -> home -> heat pump -> warm air
The latter is, surprisingly, something like 2x the efficiency because while large scale electricity generation from gas is only about 40% efficient, you can get a COP in the neighborhood of 5x on the heat pump.The part that isn't obvious is that the fantastical-sounding "5x" isn't really about energy efficiency but rather about changing the problem from "generating heat" to "moving heat from one place to another".
By the time this is fully in effect for a significant number of people (i.e., basically the 2030s), yeah, the electricity will be pretty green. The target is 90% renewable electricity by 2035, and the mix was already around 34% renewable in 2021 statewide.
It seems fairly prudent to require new construction to use the super-green electricity instead of building infrastructure to burn more dinosaur juice.
Making houses energy-agnostic seems like a big win if the cost is low and it can be, especially on new constructions. Plus if you assume that natural gas is bad then it should be obvious that thousands of houses directly depending on it is much worse than indirectly depending on it via the local plant. The local plant centralizes safety and pollution measures (e.g. no domestic gas leaks) and it allows a much quicker swapping of energy sources by the city when the time comes.
I love to cook and have a gas stove, but I bought my parents an induction unit a while back.
Sure it can't provide an open flame, but the ludicrous speed at which it heats things up vastly outweighs that drawback.
And not having to worry about ventilation nearly as much as just a bonus. My range hood needs to be on full tilt when I cook over long periods of time or the air gets "stuffy"
Also, low temp induction sucks. Even good units do low-frequency PWM to approximate low heat settings that come naturally with gas.
Induction is a big step forward compared to the older, resistive-style electric elements, and there's a lot to like about it. But what it isn't, is a good replacement for gas, at least as it currently stands.
Indeed, if you’re keen, you can buy specialist induction hotplates with connected thermometer probes that can give you way more precise control than gas ever could. Pricey but if you’re into fancy stuff like tempering chocolate they are excellent.
A rough BTU breakdown for familiar comparison is ~7-10k BTU max for an average American home-cooking gas cooktop, ~15-20k BTU for an average Chinese one. Restaurants are in the 100k+ category because of volume as much as anything.
Speaking from personal preference, A ~50-75k BTU burner/ring setup is just fine; I don't need to cook larger volumes. When doing single-serving-sized batches, the indoor 20k is ok, too.
Now, can I cook in general using electric? Of course. Can I cook and achieve the flavors and composition I want with it? Not entirely, and yes, that matters to me. Outside of BTU discussions, I toast a lot of veggies over an open flame to get that nice, flavorful char. You can also dry heat them on a comal or the like, but it isn't the same.
[edit] FWIW, I would still love to try one of the commercial, 3-phase induction woks some day.
The average gas range doesn't have open burners so even with a wok you're not going to touch "authentic" stir fry. So even half decent cookware should have enough thermal mass to make near equivalent dishes on induction or gas.
At the end of the day induction isn't a 1:1 replacement for gas, but the places where induction excels are factors you appreciate every single day. Gas excels in corners cases which, again coming someone who's exclusively had gas ranges for the last decade, aren't as strong as induction's strengths.
People are attached to gas stoves because the usual alternative you see in rented units is shitty electric stoves bought at the lowest cost, not induction.
My apartment has a shitty stove, but you know what? At least it's gas.
If it gets replaced, I am 110% sure it will not be with a nice induction stove. It will be with the cheapest electric stove that's available.
https://www.energystar.gov/about/2021_residential_induction_...
Induction cooktops aren't as inherently expensive as the price implies: here in the US we don't really use them, so there's just little demand.
When I went to buy my parents that induction stove, the bottom of the ranges offered were induction versions of the top non-induction stoves because they need the highest possible margins to justify the tiny market.
Just an induction cooktop starts in the $700 range, when they start for less than half that in the UK. This could easily be the start of normalizing induction in the US, and that's not a bad thing.
The only singular objective benefit to gas vs induction is the ability to use any old cookware over an open flame instead of needing an induction pot or pan. But that's about it, other than the emotional attachment which I feel and I'm sure others feel. In this day and age however, that's probably not good enough of a reason to stick with combustion cooking.
My friend with a brand new heat pump could not run the heatpump off his generator (6kw).
I do like induction and use an induction hotplate for a few things and actually wouldnt mind having an induction stove with a small propane stove for when the power goes out.
My hot water heater circulation pumps use around 200W for both, and the air circulators for my central air only use 300W (the actual cooling of course uses way more).
https://www.reddit.com/r/Cooking/comments/10q188u/anyone_swi...
So now it's not just "you need an expensive induction unit" but "you shouldn't get the touch-control units that everyone is selling"?
And before anyone says "the proposal doesn't cover stoves" that's obviously going to be the other shoe to drop.
In fact the same people making those cheap units you're complaining about do the same thing for gas: https://cindychenzs.en.ec21.com/Touch_Button_Gas_Stove--7335...
Of course, it's also kind of silly to act like that's the focus when of the first 20 or so replies, 16 of them are people confirming they enjoyed the switch...