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Comment by voisin | Hacker News Reader

Tony Robbins has been saying this for decades. People overestimate what they can do in a year but massively underestimate what they can do in a decade. One implication being that if you take up a hobby (say, playing the piano) after a year you are probably not very good and a lot of people then give it up because their performance doesn’t meet their (over-)expectation. But stick with it, grinding it out year after year, and almost anyone can meet their expectations. The trick, of course, is to only undertake those few things which you think you’ll want to stick with over the long term.

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Brazilian Jiu Jitsu, a grappling martial art, is very much like that. And there was a great post on HN yesterday about this. And I just randomly had a talk with my son about effort and hard work (he is 16, struggling with school, ADHD, just like me). Here are my anecdotes:

BJJ: After one year, all but the newest people still make you feel like you don't know anything, they can submit you pretty easily. Train for 10 years and you are at or close to "black belt" (Which takes on average 10-12 years in BJJ, it is not easy to get at all) and you can fold people up on instinct. The funny thing about the 1 year mark, you FEEL like you haven't learned anything, but you can gently fold the average human up now if it comes down to it.

Business: We built a business over 8 years. It was hard. The first year we were negative in profit, paying ourselves out of our bank accounts. Overnight success in 8 years. Just keep learning everything that wasn't tech, marketing, people management skills, etc. Eventually we did well got up to like 20 person head count purely with organic growth and were acquired.

Skills in general: https://gist.github.com/gtallen1187/e83ed02eac6cc8d7e185 "A little slope makes up for a lot of y-intercept".

So now when people ask me anything. Career advice. How do I lose weight. How do I get in shape. "Let me tell you about my 10 year plan for you. you can't even imagine how long and hard 10 years is, I know, but that is what it is going to take to make a life long change. do you still want my advice?" Of course many good things happen sooner, but I only talk to people that can at least accept it is going to be hard and I don't hold any secrets about anything other than you have to work really hard and apply effort.

I'm glad someone brought up BJJ. I'm ~4 years in, and it works exactly this way. The day to day doesn't seem like you're learning that much. In fact, I don't even feel like I know that much after 4 years. But, when I roll with high belts now many have to really work to get me. And like you said, if I go against someone who has never grappled before, I can gently fold them up without breathing hard.

I am at 4 years. Lay off for COVID. Just starting to get the hang of some things and present problems to higher belts. The interesting thing to me, once I can funnel someone into a dilemma game I know well, there isn't as much difference as I thought there would be between upper belts. I would say tougher black belts have seen it all before and give a really hard fight at each decision point in the attack tree, and can often just escape if technique is a little lose, but it isn't insanely different. I know how to fix things and make it harder every time I find a little gap like that now and they are little gaps. I still just get beat up most of the time, heh, but when things work they really work as I implement more of the game I like. I think that is an interesting place in skill development. Not an expert, but not a novice.

I definitely still get beat up most of the time. Also, within black belts there can be a lot of variation. But to your point, you have enough tools now that if you execute properly and lead a high belt down your path, you could catch them. That simply would never happen until 3-4 years in (and I'm not counting life long wrestlers who show up with 'no' BJJ experience).

A big turning point for me was when I would lose and could walk backwards the whole roll in my head and see the root error. BJJ is a lot like chess in this way. When you start you just get beat and see the move that beat you. As you get better you see the chain of events that lead to the finish.

Yeah, I am not great at visualizing 3d space, but I have thought enough about BJJ that I can map it all back out as well now. Plus you learn the heuristics. Usually it is something small. Lost a grip, allowed a grip, let something get loose in your half guard that lead to being cross faced, passed, etc. Often I know right away now when something is bad, though it takes a little work to figure out exactly how it happened (upper belts are sneaky like that) and unforced errors happen as well, at least those are easier to figure out :)

How do wrestlers fare at BJJ? Do they throw you for a loop so to speak because their moves are so unpredictable and they have advanced grapple reflexes?

Nicky Rodriguez, a life long wrestler was beating world class black belts in only a year of training. We had a D1 wrestler join our gym and after the first week was awarded a blue belt (usually takes 2-3 years).

They won’t know many submissions, and initially are more susceptible to exposing their back (in wrestling being on your back is the worst possible outcome where in jiu jitsu it’s an offensive position), but at the end of the day grappling is grappling.

Nicky Rod is also a big exception. D1 wrestlers are a small % of all wrestlers. Most wrestlers I encounter are like good white belts, but they have a ton of bad habits like you mentioned. Wrestlers do alright in BJJ though, for sure. They have a good sense of bodies and weight, though I have seen it hinder some wrestlers who stay in their comfort zone and never branch out, eventually losing out to folks who focus more on BJJ technique.

Yeah that’s fair, the same can be said about really strong people who only rely on strength. They seem really good initially but 5 years later they are still just trying their Americanas from inside someone’s closed guard.

Wrestlers aren't that unpredictable, and are usually more controlled than an untrained person off the street. Depending on how much wrestling experience someone has, it can definitely start them out at a higher level. But, they still have a lot of blind spots - particularly if you put a gi on them.

I'm also doing BJJ; due to <life stuff> I haven't been able to be consistent. I would say I'm about at the 1-year equivalent mark though. Hard part for me is that I'm big, so it's hard to tell if I can fold up beginners because I'm big or because I've learned, though I'm sure it's a combination of the two.

Just play guard or give up some position to smaller folks and see how it goes. I was pretty tired on Sunday so I just flopped around playing defense and subbing the white belts from bad places during Randori :)

Yes this is exactly right. In my case the business has been 12 years and now we are probably valued around $65m. 12 years is a really long time. I never would have thought it would take this long, but also I never would have expected to have the success we have had. I often look at other startups and I think to myself — This was really freaking hard to build this business bootstrapped, but it wasn’t impossible. It also didn’t take any special skills. It just took determination and hard work and continuing to do that for a long time - and i wonder why they don’t try the same thing I did. It must be because people underestimate the impact of hard work over time. The key thing is don’t die and continue growing, even if its a small amount. Continue fixing things, getting better, getting more customers, etc. Just like you said above.

In the case of my business i wasn’t thinking long term, i just was obsessively focused on it and never gave up. I think the human mind is just really poorly equipped to think long term and there are many many opportunities out there for people who can.

BJJ black belt who has been training for 12 years and previously trained in wrestling.

"After one year, all but the newest people still make you feel like you don't know anything, they can submit you pretty easily": this is not true in general, only with context. Athletic people in general would not be hopeless after one year at the local club level. I have athletic kids who show up and immediately give me problems because, despite still poor technique, their speed, power, cardio, flexibility, etc. make them dangerously competitive.

The fact is that the vast majority of adults who start jiu jitsu today are not athletic. Jiu jitsu attracts a population of mostly nerds who, because of the cerebral nature of jiu jitsu, can do very well over the years, but for the first year or two their still poor or average technique does not allow them to overcome athletic limitations.

Moreover, except for a few clubs, there is no pedagogy to speak of around jiu jitsu. If trained properly, many hobbyists will improve much faster, but jiu jitsu clubs are for-profit businesses that need first to make money and then to make people better.

Also, it is common to hear "it's been a while since I've seen Jack on the mat" with a disappointing tone, without realizing that doing any activity, especially one that is psychically demanding and involves being "beaten up," for more than 2 or 3 years requires uncommon dedication. "Keep doing it for 10 years and see how good you will become" sounds much sweeter in print than when you live it.

It’s true to some extent. Most white belts over 30 end up injured. I was a competitive ultra runner for years so the grind made sense to me and although I am not explosive, I could already wear most white belts down after a few months of training. Mostly my point was around skill development and it is a relative thing. Still, athleticism is y-intercept. Slope (years of training) can make up for a lot but there is obviously some inherent levels you will just never overcome as an older hobbyist, but you can still get really good. Maybe never elite competitive, but that is a small fraction of young people anyway.

There are a lot of people who go on training jiu jitsu (or other combat sports) for many years and they remain as uncompetitive as they were in the beginning. Some because of athletic limitations, some because they are unable to put into action what they have in mind, and some because they lack sufficient intelligence.

"Study or practice for enough years and you will get good enough/competent" at the population level sounds good, but it is simply not true.

I think people are wired to seasons and beyond that things get pretty abstract.

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