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Comment by zmk5 | Hacker News Reader

I've been wondering the same thing. Could it be the FAA really dropping the ball or the airlines are struggling to manage?

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My theory is pilots and maintenance crews are stretched way too thin after the pandemic layoffs and subsequent post covid boom. Therefore, more mistakes are happening.

I have no data to confirm, but as a relative of a pilot, they are reporting taking a lot of "green slips" (uncovered flights) and experiencing some pressure to come in while fatigued, which they are resisting successfully as they have enough seniority and $ to not make it worth it.

Wonder whether a corollary of that would be that more inexperienced pilots are succumbing to the pressure and coming in while fatigued.

Juan Brown of the blancoliro channel on youtube had been talking about this near the beginning of the pandemic. The flying industry came in and asked for a large number of long time pilots to early retire at the start of the pandemic, and I believe a large number did. Then somewhat quickly demand bounced back causing a pilot shortage, leading to the industry putting out a call for new pilots.

https://simpleflying.com/southwest-airlines-lowers-minimum-h...

> Effective February 7th, aspiring Southwest pilots will need at least 500 flying hours on jets or turboprop aircraft, down from the 1,000 the airline currently requires. The Dallas-based budget airline communicated the change in an internal memo addressed to pilots and later explained that the rationale behind this decision is the willingness to increase opportunities for an airline pilot career to more skilled pilots.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/why-is-there-a-pilot-shortage-c...

> And the military itself doesn't have enough pilots — a Department of Defense report from 2019 says the Air Force has seen shortfalls since 2006, and the service said it was short more than 1,500 pilots at the end of 2016 — "with the deficit expected to grow." By the end of the 2019 fiscal year, it had — to a deficit of 2,100 pilots, according to written testimony submitted to Congress in 2020.

> The military has also struggled for years to meet its own goals for training new pilots.

TLDR There is a pilot shortage. Lots of pilots retired or took buyouts during COVID when air traffic plummeted, and the pipeline is insufficient to meet the demand ramp.

Additional citations:

https://doav.virginia.gov/calendar-and-news/news/2020-june/s...

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/15/us-pilot-shortage-forces-air...

I'm not surprised. Getting a pilots license is an expensive endeavor. Then it's lots of years flying in backwoods places for low pay.

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