It's boundary-pushing.

They're unmanned and ambient, yet are clearly a provocation and give China an information advantage over where it would be without the balloons, and in a geopolitical sense it asserts Chinese ascendency. At the same time, it's hard for the US or other powers to figure out an appropriate response. Very similar to Russian/NK/Chinese/Israeli/American state-sponsored hacking groups--it continually forces the adversary to ask "where do we draw a line, and what consequences do we give for crossing it?"

It could be to gradually increase reaction expectations so it would not be surprising if China shot down one of the USA's drones. Or perhaps escalate by using their previously demonstrated ability to blow up satellites. The balloon was a very public microaggression that forced the USA to respond in a very public way. China tried the public "oops it was a weather balloon" to give the USA a chance to back off the public response (but know that China was still provoking them). But it was too brazen to accept.

The USA is already on their doorsteps by having bases in almost all the neighboring countries, and conducting operational freedom exercises by flying and sailing through disputed areas.

> provocation

Quite possibly. Minor provocations that by themselves are too inconsequential to warrant a response, nothing to start a war over, but incrementally provokes the target into lashing out in some way that is advantageous for China.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_salami_slicing_strateg...

(Other countries do it too, of course..)

Probe detection & response times for various approaches and altitudes, sigint for radio chatter that doesn't reach past the US, similar for active radar targeting high altitudes, wasting more US money than they cost China by a long shot, trial-run for a mass launch of these with potentially more interesting payloads than these sacrificial trial ones are carrying (even just as a kind of attention- and resource-wasting chaff during, say, an attack on Taiwan), radio-signal mapping for some crazy new passive guidance system. Lots of possibilities.

I'm pretty sure nobody here knows.

It's not like this is new. We know there were 3 during the T administration. Now for some reason we've decided we need to be paranoid about them.

Laser mapping of military POIs before a war in a few years? See the recent laser rays on Mauna Kea.

IMO, the balloons are an excuse to raise tensions with China.

It's a boogeyman, a harmless prop hyped up by the GOP in an effort to heighten tensions with China and criticize a tepid response by the administration.

The Biden White House seems happy to play along, justifying more equipment from top donors Raytheon and Boeing.

The balloon panic helpfully distracts from the massive freight derailment chemical disaster currently spewing vinyl chloride into the atmosphere over Ohio.

Who is 'they'?