I changed my mind about nuclear waste | Hacker News Reader

I changed my mind about nuclear waste

zionlights.substack.com

384 pointsbilsbie415 comments

>I learned that I had been confusing waste from nuclear energy with waste from nuclear weapons.

That is a rhetorical tactic that kind of misses the point - it's not that weapons reactors produce fundamentally leakier waste than civilian reactors, it's that the military has a long history of not disposing of dangerous chemicals the right way. It happens with non-radioactive toxic waste too and a lot of bases and the areas around them are contaminated.

If you want to use this as an argument for the safety of nuclear waste disposal, you would have to explain why the armed force's problems with waste disposal are specific to them and will never spread to regulated private industry. (P.S. the history of that is not great either and you might end up arguing that something which has already happened never will.)

I think this part stems from a common response you see from anti-nuclear folks, who frequently point to the issues at Hanford as a reason to be against civilian nuclear power. She's trying to make clear the difference between civilian nuclear power and waste management and historical waste from military nuclear weapons programs. Remembering also Hanford waste issues date as far back as the Manhattan Project during WW2.

Civilian nuclear waste management has a better track record than military nuclear waste management and civilian chemical waste management. Is that a permanent condition, or a fluke?

We are talking about 32 countries with civilian nuclear power operating for several decades. With oversight by an international body that tracks every bit of nuclear material. Using processes that differ from what was done at Hanford, producing waste different from Hanford. That has been working well, stored well and safely without issue. The military didn't start from that position, it started from "Joe just throw that shit in a pit over there, don't even bother keeping records." Hanford has no resemblance to civilian nuclear power. I think the onus is on those who keep saying it does (despite the evidence to the contrary) to demonstrate it.

> That has been working well, stored well and safely without issue.

Fukushima Daiichi. In case those two words aren't enough to jog your memory:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fukushima_Daiichi_Nuclear_Powe...

> "leading to releases of radioactivity and triggering a 30 km (19 mi) evacuation zone surrounding the plant"

> "the Japanese government approved the dumping of radioactive water of this power plant into the Pacific Ocean over the course of 30 years."

I'm hopeful that when/if fusion reactors become prevalent that we will prioritize burning up the fusion waste radioactives. https://cns.utexas.edu/news/fusion-fission-hybrid

But, of course, that's an if: https://www.science.org/content/article/fusion-power-may-run...

> "the Japanese government approved the dumping of radioactive water of this power plant into the Pacific Ocean over the course of 30 years."

A minuscule amount of tritium, dumped into an ocean that has billions of tons of uranium dissolved in it. This Fukushima water issue is a perfect example of people letting emotions overrule rational thought.

> A minuscule amount of tritium, dumped into an ocean that has billions of tons of uranium

(And then marine life enters the room, accumulating this while ignoring that, and all those carefully raised math models, simulations and speeches fall like a house of cards).

The "National Association of Marine Laboratories" publishes a Position Paper titled "Scientific opposition to Japan’s planned release of over 1.3 million tons of radioactively contaminated water from the Fukushima-Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant disaster into the Pacific Ocean."

https://www.naml.org/policy/documents/2022-12-12%20Position%...

> Fukushima Daiichi. In case those two words aren't enough to jog your memory:

Yes, I get that nuclear power scares people, which is why we should put aside our emotions on the subject and just deal with the facts. We've had decades of empirical evidence about nuclear safety at this point.

Zero radio-logical related deaths from Fukushima. And zero deaths in all history from all other civilian nuclear waste.

> "the Japanese government approved the dumping of radioactive water of this power plant into the Pacific Ocean over the course of 30 years."

It sounds scary. "Radioactive water!" But it's not an issue. How many will die or have shortened lifespan from this? Let me know and we can add it to the zero above.

The comment I was responding to was "WITHOUT ISSUE". A 30 km exclusion zone, even if temporary, is AN ISSUE.

> And zero deaths in all history from all other civilian nuclear waste.

It's rare, but happens:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_civilian_nuclear_accid...

> September 30, 1999 Ibaraki Prefecture, Japan

> Two of these workers died.

"Inadequately trained part-time workers prepared a uranyl nitrate solution containing about 16.6 kg (37 lb) of uranium, which exceeded the critical mass, into a precipitation tank at a uranium reprocessing facility in Tokai-mura northeast of Tokyo, Japan. The tank was not designed to dissolve this type of solution and was not configured to prevent eventual criticality. Three workers were exposed to (neutron) radiation doses in excess of allowable limits. Two of these workers died. 116 other workers received lesser doses of 1 mSv or greater though not in excess of the allowable limit.[39][40][41][36]"

We are discussing nuclear waste in this thread.

I said "stored well and safely without issue".

You find 2 dead workers from an industrial accident over a 70 year history that was not actually about nuclear waste but was a fuel processing and fabrication facility making fuel for experimental reactors. Not civilian power reactors. [1]

Even if you included it (which clearly it's not related to waste so shouldn't) it would still be the safest and best managed waste of anything we have!

The exclusion zone is not nuclear waste. It is interesting though because a lot of research after the event seems to show that the evacuation and such a large exclusion zone was a mistake and we should evacuate less in such events. But in the moment I get everyone was scared and didn't have a good idea of what to do.

[1] https://world-nuclear.org/information-library/safety-and-sec...

"Re-processing facility" means it comes from used rods (i.e. "waste").

This is fine, you can have your thread dedicated solely to waste. Though I do think that waste reprocessing should also be included in such a thread.

-----

As to the more general matter, people aren't concerned so much with waste, as with everything about nuclear power. Including "accidental waste" such as that caused by the Chernobyl civilian reactor failure.

Yes, I'm glad we're designing and building meltdown-proof reactors.

The long-term waste, regardless of how it originates (whether from conventional waste, decommissionings, or what have you) needs to be processed such that people a hundred, thousand, ten thousand years from now don't have to do anything special about it.

I think this can be done. But without stringent, real-time regulations I am not confident industry, or even government, will do what's necessary.

> Zero radio-logical related deaths from Fukushima. And zero deaths in all history from all other civilian nuclear waste.

Still a trillion dollar clean up.

It is probably the result of military being secretive in nature and civilian efforts being more open so there is more oversight and awareness.

> It happens with non-radioactive toxic waste too

It tends to be a lot harder to detect too. With radioactive waste, we're fortunate to have very cheap and extremely sensitive instruments that can detect the tiniest leaks. This allows the nuclear industry to be held to a much higher standard than most other industries.

This is also the reason we can say with a high degree of confidence that first-world militaries have actually been very good at handling nuclear waste for a while now. The Manhattan Project era and a few years after that were very messy, but they have demonstrably cleaned up their act and figured out how to do things safely. Meanwhile the non-radioactive chemical pollution continues largely unabated. Never live near a military base if you value the well-being of any children you might have.

>we're fortunate to have very cheap and extremely sensitive instruments that can detect the tiniest leaks. This allows the nuclear industry to be held to a much higher standard than most other industries.

The military has no problems detecting the chemicals that get leaked around bases, taking soil samples might be more expensive than walking around with a Geiger counter but it's well within the budgets of even local municipalities. The problem is that they don't really care all that much. Even something as simple as "standing far away from the pit where you're burning plastic," a practice that even law-breaking rural trash burners can manage, was too much for them in Iraq, shows you something about their institutional culture.

You're confusing ignorance and apathy of individuals with institutional apathy.

The soldiers who got sick from the burn pits often knew it was bad for them, but had to follow orders. Personal apathy on the part of people who are giving the orders is institutional apathy.

> The military has no problems detecting the chemicals that get leaked around bases

Even they will be hard pressed to detect chemical polutants at the extremely low concentrations that radiation can be trivially detected. But also, they know what to look for. What about everybody else in the area who don't even know what they should be looking for in the first place? With radioactive leaks it's easy, but DOW's chemical catalogue is thicker than a phonebook; you've got to be looking for something in particular or looking for half a billion different things all at once.

I'm not sure what you're saying - people living in towns near military bases do not* walk up and down the local creeks with Geiger counters any more than they compare soil samples against lists of plausibly leaked toxic chemicals. Maybe they should start, but I mean, that's not a good normal.

*Edit: Except when they do.

There are a lot of geiger counters around operated by various organizations. Every time there is a radioactive leak just about anywhere in the world, it is promptly discovered even if that government wants to keep it a secret. In fact it is practical for you to own your own geiger counter if you live near a nuclear facility and are worried about it. The equipment needed for general analytical chemistry, which you'd need to detect a great deal of chemical pollution, is a lot less practical. For some specific chemical pollutants, there simple and cheap tests which are practical for laypeople. But there's no such thing as a simple hand-held meter that will detect any arbitrary chemical pollutant.

Hence, chemical pollution very often goes unnoticed for decades until somebody starts to wonder why half the babies in town are born without brains.

The radioactivity accidents that are picked up by environmental sensors tend to be very large-scale. The little, nasty ones, like the mining source that was lost in Australia, tend to disappear.

Minuscule tritium emissions are detected around nuclear power plants all the time, far below the level at which anybody should be concerned.

There was even a case where alarms were sounded when a power plant worker was found to be radioactive due to radon in his home, which triggered detectors at work. The general chemical industry doesn't operate with anything even remotely close to this degree of care.

That's a gas, making it the easiest possible case. I think a more plausible threat are the decaying temporary storage containers that a lot of low-grade waste is sitting in because nobody can find a permanent location for it. (Yes, that's largely due to political reasons, but political reasons are real!)

From what I understand, in the case of the radon-contaminated nuclear worker, what they actually detected were the "radon daughters", the decay products of radon. Radon itself doesn't stick around very long, but when it decays it produces an atomic dust of polonium, lead, etc. That dust is what tripped the alarms.

Anything like that radioactive source from Australia would set of tons of alarms in a nuclear power plant. You wouldn't get it out the door. Incidents like that missing radioactive source in Australia happen where there are far fewer safeguards than at a nuclear power plant. Those sources generally go missing from abandoned medical equipment, food irradiation facilities, and that sort of thing. You'd be hard pressed to smuggle (let alone accidentally convey) something like a spent nuclear fuel pellet out of a power plant.

A gas is quite difficult to detect because it diffuses. This also makes them typically less dangerous because diffusion also means dilution. Levels do matter. Tritium is also pretty low in terms of radioactivity. The radiation cannot penetrate the skin except in very high levels (you can find keychains, watches, gun sights, etc with small bits of tritium and phosphorous to create long term glow objects). Ingestion and inhalation are more serious since your internal organs are more susceptible (see weighted dosage). The real cool thing is that we can measure radiation with high precision and in real time, so we can detect these dangers. Mostly because these devices are cheap.

In addition to the requirement of a more active approach needed to detect ground/water contaminants there are also a larger variety of pollutants that are harmful. Many of these need specific tests, which can consume your samples. Of course we can do pretty good guesstimates for what we should look for, but we do need to recognize that the process is both more fuzzy and more involved. We can grow these projects by making them cheaper, but that's a tall order (it is happening though).

Edit: I do want to note that most radiation detection devices do not distinguish between types of radiation. These differences do matter in danger levels. This can add complications the above but there is a decent signal that is still useful. But as with everything, some expertise and domain knowledge is quite important.

> people living in towns near military bases do not walk up and down the local creeks with Geiger counters any more than they compare soil samples against lists of plausibly leaked toxic chemicals

Not quite true. There are pretty big and active citizen based radiation detection projects [0,1,2,3]. The reason for this is that radiation monitors are quite cheap now and the same people who build weather systems often connect a geiger counter. They're cheap and sensitive since the gov spent so much money trying to detect radiation from space, across borders, and even the smallest traces on people (to detect spies, scientists, etc) all from the Cold War. There are also citizen based communities monitoring water and soil, but this does require more work from the participant. They have to go out and collect samples. Processing can be both expensive and quite a bit of work. This isn't the same as hooking up a $100 device to your weather station, which is a leave and forget type system.

We should note that both these communities are far more active in regions where there are greater dangers (history of nuclear sites/projects, oil facilities, military bases, etc). I'd also like to thank both these communities and others like them. They're all doing important work.

[0]https://www.radiationnetwork.com/

[1] https://jciv.iidj.net/map/

[2] https://cemp.dri.edu/cemp/

[3] https://www.epa.gov/radnet/near-real-time-and-laboratory-dat...

Or more importantly, would the same motivators for the military exist for private industries. My example would not be nuclear, but waste in general. I did 5 years in the Navy. Out at sea, by regulations, we have really strict standards of how certain materials get disposed. Clean metal, like aluminum cans from the galley can go overboard, into the ocean, and so can food waste. Plastic can't, batteries cant, etc. Do batteries and cut up fuel hoses find their way into the ocean? Yes. Is it because the Navy said so, no. From what I noticed, its about how easy it is to dispose of properly and you could notice it. When someone who made the process easier to dispose of batteries properly, most to everyone did it properly. When they changed out who was in charge of the trash detail and the new person in charge of the trash detail damn near required a 7 page dissertation and interrogation to allow you to turn in your dead batteries, people threw that shit in the ocean late at night when no one was out and about on the skin of the ship.

My point being, usually when waste disposal is an issue in the military, its not necessarily because the military doesnt care. Its because the process to do things properly became to grueling for people to put up with (not right, but it happens). Sometimes that grueling process is from big Navy, sometimes it is because DC1 had a bad day and making your day a pain in the ass somehow makes him feel better.

So, what you are expressing is one perspective on accidents, and it's true - the one guy who cares about cleaning up a spill is a good guy, the one guy who hoses it into a drain is a bad guy. I would like to offer another one.

The water is going to take all of the people who did it right, and all of the people who did it wrong, and average their actions together into a single number, the amount of contamination. On the other side, although an individual person can decide whether they're going to make disposing of those batteries easy or a bureaucratic power trip, when you are at the top and are going to fill 1,000 positions like that, you know in advance that some of them are going to be awful about it. So, from the top like from below, individual personal decisions become fixed quantities. Sending out 1,000 people and allowing 250 of them to make the independent personal decision to do it wrong is really the same thing as doing it wrong yourself, because it's guaranteed to happen.

That's essentially the story behind why you should think about accidents as an institutional problem even when they involve bad personal choices on the part of the people who did them. That One Guy is actually hundreds of people and although you can't tell in advance whether one person will do it you know that out of thousands, hundreds will.

> The water is going to take all of the people who did it right, and all of the people who did it wrong, and average their actions together into a single number, the amount of contamination.

I imagine that batteries, for one, would tend to sink to the bottom of the ocean (if not gulped up by a large animal), and would thus cause highly concentrated local contamination. It would really depend on exactly where the batteries were thrown overboard on how much damage each one caused.

Otherwise I agree with what you're saying.

There definitely are roots that can be traced to institutional problems. The case with a certain DC1 who thought being a pain would make him feel better, it is an institutional problem that someone like that was able to get to a position they were in. If someone with that kind of a personality rose up to being a DC1 and supervising the trash crew (although these kinds of duties are usually when someone is sent TAD because their division doesn't want to deal with them), that is a problem. So yea, you can boil it down to institutional problems, however it can be a little tricky because those institutional problems sometimes do not correlate directly.

I think the biggest difference between the military and industry is that the civilian side of the government enforces laws on industry but does not enforce laws on the military. I know many people who would love to not have to deal with their company's waste disposal processes, but the consequences are quite severe (e.g. the fines are huge so you would be fired if you were found out).

Do you mean to imply that you're not supposed to throw your dead car batteries into the ocean to help charge the electric eels?

That is a good one. xD

I know people who were so sick and tired of trying to figure out where to dispose of their fluorescent light bulbs that they just threw them to the side of the road on the highway at night. It’s completely undetectable.

Yup, same issue with e-waste. It can be a pain to properly dispose of your broken 10 year old laptop. So many people don't do it. It just does in the trash can with everything else. Make it easy, people do it, minus a few edge case shitheads. But I'd rather 75 out of 100 people do it right and have 25 shit heads than 75 shit heads and 25 people doing it right.

I have a bunch of no-name laptop batteries lying around that no one will take. Apparently lithium ion waste is not as valuable as I thought.

Does your country not have recycling centers?

Over here every municipality has a center where you can just hand in any domestic waste unsuitable for the trash can. It's a bit inconvenient because you have to go out of your way, but it is definitely quite doable.

And electronics can be handed in at any store which sells electronics, which includes stores like the equivalent of Walmart or Home Depot. You'll be going there anyways, so it's literally zero extra effort.

Recently I tried to figure out where to send a smashed TV. It was a 50”. Typically they barely sell any TVs smaller than that in the US these days. Best Buy won’t take any TVs for recycling if it’s over a certain screen size. Mine is too big. Once a year or something the town does a e-waste drop off. I’ll have to borrow a car big enough to fit this thing. It’s no wonder so many people toss them in a dumpster.

Its pretty spotty in the US. Where I specifically am, the city dump has a place and best buy will take small electronics. Someone else mentioned their TV being big, same at my local best buy. If you even have a local best buy or those stores anymore since quiet a few have closed in the medium to smaller towns. I think Best Buy is the only local store I know of that takes at least some e-waste (once again, only if it is on the smaller size like cellphones). But my local municipality does have an e-waste center at the city dump, but there are definitely areas in the US where there isn't, or it just isn't advertised/talked about. Even though we have one in my city, I would say probably most people have no clue it exists. Everyone can tell you when free dump day is to toss lawn garbage or couches or they can tell you when the county yard burn day is in the summer, but they can't tell you where to go to find the e-waste collection that is open most days of the year (in the same area as the regular dump). The city also doesn't really advertise it like they do when free trash day at the dump happens or the county during the county lawn trash burn day.

But I do know in my community, more awareness needs to be raised. Every year I get 3 fliers through out the year for garbage disposal, they really should send out 4. The 3 I get every year are, when we can burn lawn garbage, free dump day and when they do christmas tree pick-up. They should send out a 4th one once a year to just say, "hey these are the locations you can take your e-waste to."

> Out at sea, by regulations, we have really strict standards of how certain materials get disposed. Clean metal, like aluminum cans from the galley can go overboard, into the ocean, and so can food waste.

So inconsistent. Literally trashy if true.

Not really. Clean metal is fine and so are food products. Clean metal can help form reefs and such, why the Navy sinks ships. Food waste, like apple cores and such, all biodegradable. But the trash has to go somewhere. So things that doesn't really hurt the ocean and break down, it goes in the ocean. Things that can actually hurt the ocean and won't break down get flow off the ship during resupply missions and get disposed of properly on land somewhere.

>Clean metal, like aluminum cans from the galley can go overboard

Aren't food cans typically plastic lined?

We know this quite well here in Colorado Springs: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/may/23/chemical-col...

Nuclear reactor fuel is pre-assembled. There are licenses to produce/consume/export/import/store/dispose the fuel assemblies, with the quantities and weights being an exactly known scientific fact. Everything is meticulously recorded and tracked from source to destination, with stringent security measures. Local, international and inter-governmental regulators monitor, inspect and verify; penalties are serious.

Why would you compare commercial nuclear energy production to the military scenarios, which have a completely different legal, supervisory, penalty and authority structure?

>Why would you compare commercial nuclear energy production to the military scenarios, which have a completely different legal, supervisory, penalty and authority structure?

Because the article took away their usual talking points regarding "nuclear waste bad" and "dangerous for 10,000 years!".

They're moving the goalposts to "You can't argue that nuclear waste disposal from power plants wouldn't cause a problem because the military doesn't dispose of most things correctly and private companies are probably just as bad or worse than the military, therefore you're wrong."

Which doesn't make much sense.

>That is a rhetorical tactic that kind of misses the point - it's not that weapons reactors produce fundamentally leakier waste than civilian reactors, it's that the military has a long history of not disposing of dangerous chemicals the right way. It happens with non-radioactive toxic waste too and a lot of bases and the areas around them are contaminated.

No, it's a plain statement, not a "tactic". Power plant waste is different from weapons waste, and disposing of power plant waste has never been a real problem. She's talking about power plant waste because one major barrier to replacing climate changing coal fired power plants is the usual indoctrination people face regarding nuclear waste, with no distinction drawn between power plants and nuclear weapons waste.

Talking about weapons reactors or the military not disposing of chemicals properly is entirely irrelevant to the article and the discussion at hand.

>Power plant waste is different from weapons waste, and disposing of power plant waste has never been a real problem.

If power plant waste was handled as badly as weapons waste was historically, it would be a problem. That's all I am saying, really.

Yes, but that's irrelevant. If prescription drugs were handled as badly as weapons waste was historically, it would be a problem too.

Same for e.g. plastic waste, food waste, or just about anything else. Military developing weapons tends to make a mess, which is why most countries are trying to change that.

Separating plutonium is separating plutonium. It's filthy no matter why you do it, and the past military fuckups are used to cover for the ongoing civilian fuckups.

This is conveniently forgotten whenever the subject of breeders is used to deflect from the lack of U235

> disposing of power plant waste has never been a real problem.

Germany has been trying to find a location to safely dispose power plant waste for about 40 years or so. All the solutions so far didn't work out [1], they are still searching.

If you have a recommendation that actually works, I am sure they'd be happy to hear it...

[1] https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Endlager_(Kerntechnik)#Endlage...

The "Asse II" mine case: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asse_II_mine

For the period 1906 to 1988, when Asse II was an operational salt mine, there were 29 documented water breaches.[27] They were sometimes successfully sealed off, partly dry or sometimes with negligible inflows (less than 0.5 cubic metres (130 US gal) per day).[28]

Between 1988 and 2008 32 new entry points were recorded. In 1996, the BFS notified the Bundesumweltministerium that there was a risk of severe radioactive contamination if the mine ran full of water and that further investigation was urgently required.

Hardly a long term solution.

> That is a rhetorical tactic that kind of misses the point

As nearly everyone here has pointed out, it not only doesn't miss the point, it _is_ the point, and it's not rhetorical, it's a statement of fact.

Weapons waste is completely different to power-plant waste. That's the whole point of that sentence.

Well the author by her own disclosure is the founder of a nuclear energy lobby group. Or as she calls it "climate activist group". So yeah, I'm sure she was very confused and in doubt with herself, I'm happy it all turned out fine and she finally discovered that nuclear power is the solution to all our problems.

While it's good the author has gained a better understanding of nuclear waste, I feel that they're almost repeating their mistakes in their discussion of renewable waste. I'm fairly sure that everything they listed - solar panels, turbines, batteries - can be recycled; the question generally is whether its cost-effective to do so. (Another important question is probably on whether we want to spend the money on developing recycling methods for these types of things in the first place).

I'm increasingly of the opinion that if we want effective recycling solutions for stuff like this, one of the biggest steps we could take is strong right-to-repair laws. There should be a push for designing things in such a way that they are easy to disassemble, part out, and replace pieces of. Not only does this make things easier to fix and extend their lifespan, but it also would make them easier to disassemble for recycling/waste purposes.

Requiring manufacturers to release documentation (design, components, most common failure modes, common repairs) on their products at some point after they no longer manufacture them is probably a harder sell but would be pretty nice - trawling old forums to figure out how to repair my 12-year-old subwoofer is a pain and unreliable, and having manufacturers responsible for hosting that information would make it more consistently available.

Right to Repair is incredibly important, but also feels incredibly insufficient in this context. What we really need is Obligation to Repair, or something of that nature. Producers of goods need to be accountable for the lifecycle of those goods.

I don't agree. If we move to goalposts too far down the field the political resistance will guarantee that we accomplish less. We have to focus on making repairing stuff possible and economically feasible first. And I think it will need to happen somewhat gradually so the industry can learn how to design things that can be repaired. We also need to build a robust repair industry. With training for repair personnel as well as the supply chain and logistics side.

Make repairs attractive, and cheap enough and we might not need to bring up a wall of legislation that makes market access too hard for new entrants. This could quickly develop into a game where only companies with really deep pockets are even able to produce anything.

(I work for a startup. We occasionally have to make hardware. Enabling people to repair the stuff we make is something we're happy to do. But if we had to be accountable for the entire lifecycle, that would be another thing. What happens if we go tits up?)

Totally agree from a practicality standpoint.

In regards to undue burden on companies:

> I work for a startup. We occasionally have to make hardware.

> What happens if we go tits up?

I think if you go tits up, it's the same situation as when a business goes bankrupt and leaves behind a contaminated site. But goods produced by small businesses and startups are marginal compared to those produced by big businesses. There should be strong incentives for businesses to manage the end of life for their goods, so they will attempt to recover those goods and see that they are recycled. That will also incentivize them to design products that can be recycled, and as profitably as possible.

And further, the seller of a product should be responsible for the disposal of waste from that product (subtracting the recyclable parts). For example, supermarkets would be less inclined to wrap _everything_ in plastic if they were on the hook for the disposal of tonnes of wrap arriving at their stores every day and the disposal part of a products lifecycle would have to be taken account of in its costing - if the waste isn't free to the person who makes it, the waste will be minimised in the design

Saying that a turbine can theoretically be recycled, but at such a high cost that people simple bury them in a field is pretty much the same as saying they can't be recycled.

In some nations (France being one) recycling is mandatory (save extreme-case exceptions), by law.

French ahead: https://factuel.afp.com/le-socle-des-eoliennes-resteront-dan...

Turbine blades at least can't really be recycled, just search for "turbine blade landfill".

FYI, there are recent improvements.

"Vestas unveils circularity solution to end landfill for turbine blades"

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=34716743

> trawling old forums to figure out how to repair my 12-year-old subwoofer is a pain and unreliable

A few years ago I had the same experience. It cost me $30 and 10 minutes to replace the subwoofer speaker in my 20 year old Mission home theatre, but finding the right speaker was quite difficult. I trawled forums and ended up ordering a speaker from a German manufacturer that had all sorts of speakers for specialised applications.

Most people would have just thrown out the entire setup and bought a new one, expensive and wasteful. Yet it was so trivial to fix with the right knowledge. And it sounded great, better than most setups I hear today.

It makes me wonder whether home theatres bought today will still be functioning in the 2040s. It seems unlikely as soundbars are all the rage these days which communicate over bluetooth/hdmi protocols that get superseded every few years, forcing you to constantly upgrade. Makes me appreciate the “dumb” aspect of that old setup I had.

> one of the biggest steps we could take is strong right-to-repair laws

I could not agree more. Thank you for bringing this up.

I think part of why this doesn't turn up more often when green parties try to get elected is that it isn't sexy enough. It is much more fun to imagine building new and shiny stuff or have an opportunity to strongly signal values. But something as boring as laws that would require all manufacturers to design for repairability and banning any manufacturer who even looks like they are trying to limit who can repair stuff, is too boring.

I agree: this would be a very good place to start.

Just on technical grounds, this is just not a very educational article. Any discussion of waste from the nuclear fission process should begin with an image of the periodic table and a chart of the curve of binding energy (whose peak, or trough, sits on Iron, which the most stable nuclei relative to fusion or fission processes). From there we can take a look at thermal fission product yield:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fission_product_yield

Notably there are two peaks in isotopic distribution, but there are a great many species generated, with varying impact on human health if ingested, depending on whether they mimic species like calcium (in the same column on the periodic table) or are actually used (iodine in the thryoid gland for example). Note also there are some transuranics (plutonium etc.) formed by neutron capture in addition to the fission products.

The risk is that these products don't stay sealed in their cooling pond containers (note that 'spent' is hardly the right term, it's really 'too hot to safely remain in the reactor' as they're still generating lots of energy by decay of the unstable isotopes). Eventually they cool off enough to go into dry cask storage (also a long-term risk).

Usually in these discussions someone trots out a line like 'airplanes are risky, too, but we don't stop flying just because of the rare plane crash, do we?'. The answer to this is that if every plane crash created a 50-mile diameter exclusion zone that had to be kept off-limits for 50-100 years without extensive decontamination, then we'd think twice about flying (note the nuclear-reactor-powered airplane was on the drawing boards for a while).

The end result of this issue is that nuclear reactors have to be heavily over-engineered to take into account so-called 'black swan' events, see Fukushima. This inevitably raises the costs of nuclear power well above those for any other energy source, which is why many people (myself included) think it doesn't have much of a future except in certain niche situations.

There are other issues, of course - high demand for cooling water, nuclear weapons material proliferation, uncertainties over high-grade uranium ore supplies (i.e. price fluctuations etc.), and so on, but attempting to claim long-term storage of nuclear waste is not a seriously problematic issue is just blatantly dishonest.

> The answer to this is that if every plane crash created a 50-mile diameter exclusion zone that had to be kept off-limits for 50-100 years without extensive decontamination, then we'd think twice about flying

I'm not sure we would if planes only crashed once a thirty years. Especially if crashes were limited to experimental or old planes with known design flaws.

> if every plane crash created a 50-mile diameter exclusion zone that had to be kept off-limits for 50-100 years without extensive decontamination, then we'd think twice

If every reactor accident created an exclusion zone like this that had to be kept off limits for that long, we likely wouldn't use reactors at all.

Most of the nuclear accidents that have happened don't create problems that big, only Chernobyl and Fukushima. There have been hundreds of other incidents, but almost all of those have no after effects at all.

For example, another well known accident was Three Mile Island. There were no detectable health effects from it and the background radiation was increased by 0.5% or so in the immediate area. No exclusion zone required.

The exclusion zone from Chernobyl was, and is, also wildly excessive, because at the time we just didn't know.

> The answer to this is that if every plane crash created a 50-mile diameter exclusion zone that had to be kept off-limits for 50-100 years without extensive decontamination

Thing is, that's genuinely not what's needed.

You can live quite happily within a couple of miles of Chernobyl with a life expectancy difference much smaller than going from middle class to working class.

Fukushima today is even less dangerous, basically negligible danger unless you're on the plant grounds.

> All the high-level nuclear waste produced in the world would fit in a single football field to a height of approximately ten yards.

> The amount of high-level waste produced during nuclear energy production is also small: a typical large reactor produces about 25-30 tonnes of used fuel per year.

That's such a propaganda way of phrasing it, because it considers the waste is essentially pure uranium you would never be able to store it like this. It is actually quite a lot.

Incidentally this is about the same amount of coal we burn per year.

> Worldwide, 97% of the waste produced by the nuclear power industry is classified as low- or medium-level waste.

So essentially the actual amount of nuclear waste is 30 times as high. It's also funny considering the later part of the argument is how highly radioactive waste is not such a problem because it decays quickly. Well guess what mid and low level wast has often much longer lifetimes and it's still as dangerous as much hazardous chemical waste.

The whole piece reads like a giant fluff piece, sprinkled with lots of nuclear industry talking points.

> Incidentally this is about the same amount of coal we burn per year.

Who are "we"?

The US alone consumed about 545 million short ton of coal in 2021 [1]. From what I can tell, that's in the range of 400 million m^3. Did I get the numbers wrong? (I just semi-randomly picked a converter online as I have no reference point to how heavy a cubic meter of coal is). Because that does not seem at all like about the same amount.

[1] https://www.eia.gov/coal/annual/

That's the whole point about my criticism. Uranium is incredibly dense so phrasing it in terms of volume of the uranium is just misleading.

Regarding the calculation https://www.worldometers.info/coal/ says we are burning 1,147,083 cubic feet of coal which is about 30000 cubic meters which is about the same as a football field up to 10 yards (~50mx90mx10m).

It says:

> The world consumes 1,147,083 cubic feet of coal per capita every year (based on the 2016 world population of 7,464,022,049 people) or 3,143 cubic feet per capita per day.

(My emphasis).

So closer to a football field per person according to this. That sounds excessive to me, so I'm not sure I trust those numbers.

This [1] says "1 ton of coal is approximately 40 cubic feet per ton, might be a little less, might be a little more....". Using my earlier numbers from DOE, that gives 545 million short tons * 40 = ca. 21,800 million cubic feet, or ~ 600 million m^3, or ca. 1.67m^3 per capita in the US. That sounds low, but as a global average, maybe not.

[1] https://coalpail.com/coal-forum/viewtopic.php?f=57&t=2591#:~.......

You're right that the worldometer number is excessive and not to be trusted.

They properly calculated 1.147083 tons of coal per capita per year, but then incorrectly multiplied by it 1,000,000 cubic feet per ton.

The actual conversion factor for coal seems to be 20-60 cubic feet per ton, depending on whether you use bulk density or particle density. Their per capita calculation is too high by a factor of about 15,000-50,000.

You're right that the amount of coal consumed is not similar to the amount of uranium byproduct generated. The original commenter's intuition was misled, not by uranium's density, but by its energy density. Of course there is an xkcd for this. https://xkcd.com/1162/

I've been a bit of a nuclear nerd for a long time, and somehow the author still shares information that is new to me: I had no idea how quickly high-level waste dissipated, love the plots of the radioactive decay.

> The decay of heat and radioactivity over time means that after only forty years, the radioactivity of used fuel has decreased to about one-thousandth of the level at the point when it was unloaded. Less than 1% is radioactive for 10,000 years. The portion that stays radioactive for longer is about as radioactive as some things found in nature and can be easily shielded to protect humans.

It is somewhat logical. Radiation isn't free and if something radiates a lot, it loses quite a lot of energy while radiating.

Typically: intense radiation is caused by massive presence of isotopes with short half-life, which means that they go away quite quickly.

Even the notorious Elephant's Foot in Chernobyl, made of molten core content, is now much safer than it used to be, to the degree that people are now willing to enter the room and make photos of it [0]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elephant%27s_Foot_(Chernobyl)

"About" and "less than" are lovely weasel words for the ideologically committed.

According to this graph, the truth is more like 1% after 100 years, 0.1% after 10,000 years.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spent_nuclear_fuel?useskin=vec...

IMO that's quite misleading. It's true that the amount of radition will dramatically decline. But it does so unevenly, and certain isotopes last much much longer. That's not really a problem if the waste stays contained in one location, but if that waste somehow leaked into water sources or similar then it could have significant consequences. Even a very small amounts of these isotopes can be dangerous if inhaled or ingested.

It's an often (deliberately?) overlooked aspect of nuclear waste discussions. People will loudly say "radioactive waste needs to be stored for thousands of years", and "you go near some radioactive waste, you will surely die from radiation exposure". This gets combined into something like "This highly dangerous stuff, that you cannot approach stays highly dangerous and unapproachable for 10k years". Then people say "how can we possibly hope to store this incredibly dangerous stuff for 10k years, it's such a hard problem to solve, better not create this stuff in the first place, no more nuclear!".

But the stuff that lasts 10k years is a very different beast from the stuff that kills you quickly from just being near it. The supremely radioactive stuff tends to have a very short half-life. We can think about storage methods in very human time-frames, it's much more achievable. The other, long half life stuff needn't be stored with nearly the same extremly stringent standards, because it just isn't so extremely dangerous.

So it goes from killing you if you're in the same room in seconds to merely bioaccumulating and poisoning the top levels of the food chain for thousands of square km in a few centuries.

Very nice good faith representation.

I'm all for fighting the good fight on this, but I'm also a realist: consumer sentiment isn't going to change much. People on the extremes will still fight to the nails on MSG, Flouride in water, GMO, etc. But the median person doesn't really care where their power comes from when they hit a switch so long as it's cheap.

If we want any serious progress on Nuclear you need regulators with authority to ignore organized civilian protestation. And the only way that happens is when politicians have their backs against the wall when it comes to energy options.

Virtually no one who is critical of nuclear thinks that "it's scary" is the best, or even a good, reason for not having nuclear. But loads of analysis have been done on the financials of different energy generation methods and shows very clearly that, except for those contracted to build and maintain the thing, no one sees a real benefit. It simply doesn't pan out to plan and build new nuclear reactors today, considering what we could do with that money (solar, wind) over the 10 years it takes from groundbreaking to first day online for nuclear facilities.

Do you have any good source of reading on this? Most of my layman googling seems to suggest otherwise.

The financials don't live in a vacuum though. Nuclear is only so expensive because there is a lack of supply chain on reactors and absurd regulations.

The average nuclear reactor is over 40 years old(!) and well past due for replacement. So the cost is skewed by unrealistic maintenance demand on reactors that are 3 generations old because we can't politically replace them with anything other than a Natural Gas plant.

Meanwhile, renewables enjoy fast-tracking and subsidies. But keep in mind renewables currently only benefit places that are either windy or sunny. There are going to be diminishing returns as they fill up our power diet. We are still going to need power supplies that can keep New York powered in the winter. Or power that can be turned on/off to meet seasonal demand. So unless we want to keep natural gas and coal plants around indefinitely, we are going to need some amount of nuclear power in the mix.

A lot of people say that new reactor designs will be a game changer but I can't help but wonder how much more benefit they'll provide over plain old solar and wind with hydrogen for storage and transport.

After the Ukraine invasion, I think it's also worth considering future political instability in reactor permitting and design. I believe the molten salt reactors negate a lot of the problems we've had to consider with the Zaporozhye nuclear plant being in a war zone, but I'm not sure it comes out to something much better than solar and wind.

The micro reactors sound interesting though.

If anything, the Ukraine invasion changed my opinion the other way. Germany had the largest investment in solar and wind anywhere in the world. But their dirty secret was that they were dependent on malicious petrostates to keep the lights on this whole time.

Meanwhile, the Nordics and France that when all-in on nuclear are enjoying relative energy independence.

So you have a problem with cronyism and corruption, not with solar and wind.

So how are those sanctions on rosatom going then? Sooo independent.

> Virtually no one who is critical of nuclear thinks that "it's scary" is the best, or even a good, reason for not having nuclear.

That's 99.9% of Germany's anti-nuclear movement. The "it's just not economical" is a super recent addition (last 3 years, I'd say) to the public debate, and it feels very much tacked on. If anyone discovered a method to bring down cost, most of those who are against nuclear energy wouldn't change their mind, because that's not an actual concern to them.

To further add to this, most arguments against the economics of nuclear are kind of dumb and circular. "We shouldn't bother making nuclear cheaper, it's too expensive!"

Meanwhile, we are just supposed to take for granted that unforeseen technology will make energy storage and transport cheaper.

Thats because the price is 5x higher (inflation and power output adjusted) than the 70s plants. Due entirely to overregulation.

I don't know if I agree with the "organized civilian protestation" entirely. While NIMBY did play a role historically, this seems out-of-touch when I consider the mothballed & troubled builds which are currently in South Carolina.

I do believe regulators have their foot on the brakes, and there are some really telling stories from people in the actual industry. The level of paperwork and scrutiny are hard to fathom for people in other industries. But right now, in the US, that is more of a Federal political issue. The AP1000 lost crucial time due to added missile shield requirements. That doesn't scream local on-the-ground public resistance. You can pin some of this nearly directly to anti-nuclear views from (let's be honestly) Democratic senators (not from the south). Federal policy both encourages and discourages nuclear, but the domestic industry was too weak, and the regulatory policy took critical hits during a formative time.

I care very deeply about addressing carbon emissions. I want nuclear to work, but that's not an argumentative hill I should die on when solar has seen costs go bananas. Maybe another human generation will change things, but from lived experience, I would bet not.

As an engineer, I admit that either nuclear or solar COULD HAVE become the backbone of our energy system. But time is out for climate action. Solar is modular, proven, and roaring. Further deployment will create a new engineering problem of storage, but we don't have time to turn that into a delay tactic. There will be solutions to energy storage, just as there are solutions to nuclear waste. Neither are cheap, but either are a drop in the bucket compared to the climate damage we face.

Well, I largely think that NIMBY is still at play. If you are a senator you have nothing to gain with a nuclear reactor in your district. Compare this to Japan that doesn't have ridiculously cheap natural gas, and yet is still doubling down on nuclear despite Fukushima and constant protest.

I think renewables are amazing and have a long way still to go, but I look at the current energy mix and it's hard to see a 100% renewables grid in our lifetime with foreseeable technology.

If you take the climate science seriously, then you really must accept net-zero by 2050. After that, maybe net-negative.

Assuming you're an educated person, the question we must ask is if natural gas is viable to fill in the gaps from renewables in 2050. Given the net-zero requirement, that means a natural gas plant that puts its CO2 emissions back in the ground. That can make sense with direct carbon-capture and storage, but the problem is high capital costs totally undermine the low capacity factor which is why we use it today.

If we go natural gas CCS vs nuclear in 2050, maybe it's a tossup, but they're BOTH poorly suited for the job, if we're talking about solar at >50%. Daily storage will be solved fairly well by then, and seasonal energy storage will be the challenge. But nuclear is baseload.

There are interesting ideas like running nuclear to heat a vat of salt which is used as a means of energy storage so that it would work in a grid with lots of renewables. But that's peak smoothing over several days. Seasonal thermal storage has been written about but is basically crackpot stuff.

So I've kind of come around to seasonal storage of green hydrogen. The technology is at least focused on the right problem. Duration of storage and energy density arguments favor chemical energy, and low capital costs per nameplate capacity are the primary driver.

Solar electricity is a cheaper and less mining intensive source of heat than nuclear thermal energy.

Burning green hydrogen is also largely not going to be needed outside of emergency conditions. Capturing the many thousands of twh per year of waste stream methane is essential anyway and can easily cover what hydro and a few hours of battery cannot.

> Well, I largely think that NIMBY is still at play

Citation needed? The argument that "those gosh-darn environmentalists ruined nuclear" have been countered repeatedly by simply focusing on the huge economic headwinds facing any nuclear project, while renewables gallop into an ever-cheaper future.

Even making the claim that environmental activism resulted in overaggressive regulation is hard to back up, since agencies like the NRC and IAEA are made up of mainly nuclear industry figures who are hardly anti-nuke.

> Solar is modular, proven, and roaring.

Nuclear has been proven in France for decades. I've yet to see a medium-sized country with solar as the backbone of electricity production.

In France approximately 2/3 of the final energy consumed (don't get fooled by statistics expressed upon primary energy, they are misleading) is produced by burning fossil fuels.

"In 2008, nuclear power accounted for 16% of final energy consumption in France" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_power_in_France#Operat...

> ...consumer sentiment isn't going to change much.

> ...the median person doesn't really care where their power comes from when they hit a switch so long as it's cheap.

> If we want any serious progress on Nuclear you need regulators with authority to ignore organized civilian protestation.

The reason sentiment isn't going to change is because much of the situation is dictated by greed. People want cheap power, the companies want money; both are driving forces compelling them to act not in their best interest but cheaply.

Unless regulators can ignore commercial and private interests a like, then greed will always taint regulation. Which is why sentiment will never change.

There's a complete lack of trust that the industry will do the right thing and sustain it long term because it is under constant pressure to be both profitable and cheap.

> But radiation hasn’t harmed anywhere near as many people as fossil fuels.

The implication with both this statement and the map is that we should be comparing the total number of people who died from radiation, and the total from fossil fuels, and see which is bigger, but there are other ways of evaluating (potential) harms.

Nuclear power and other radtech is not equally common around the world, and neither are fossil fuels. In the context of promoting transition from one to the other, the important question is the relative harm of these two choices as a function of their deployment over time. There have been events from minor leaks to world-changing disasters, all of which are contingent on human factors which vary widely across time and space. So it's not clear that increasing global rollout of nuclear power will be as consistently safe in the future as it has been in the recent past.

There are a few ways of comparing these numbers. I think you're suggesting that something like deaths/kWh is a better metric, which I agree with; if we just go with total deaths than something like pedal-driven generators are the safest way to generate power, which is obviously an unhelpful statement.

However, the greater point is that although nuclear power is dangerous by default because of the waste and risks of meltdowns it can be made very safe with engineering and still be a cheap generation method. By all accounts I'm familiar with fossil fuels cannot be made safe for either the environment or people while still being cost-effective.

A major issue in the nuclear vs fossil fuels argument is perceived vs actual risk. I don't have the numbers, but even though Fukushima was a huge disaster, the death toll is officially 1. But the cleanup has been very expensive and very visible. Meanwhile, coal/gas/oil plants deflect the equivalent costs of their cleanup onto workers and people in the communities in increased mortality and healthcare costs.

More succinctly, nuclear can be safe with effort, but fossil fuels seemingly can't be safe, no matter how much effort.

I agree deaths/kWh is a better metrics, and I was probing into your point about how nuclear can be safer due to better engineering. Is the engineering alone enough? Can we engineer out the risky human parts? Perhaps today that looks like increasing automation of reactors, perhaps in future it means a computer could run an entire station without human inputs or oversight.

Also great points about perceived vs actual risk, and observability of effects, as other things affecting the political landscape of nuclear!

In deaths per KWh nuclear is king, with a thousandth of the deaths of gas and ten thousandth of coal. Until recently even solar was worse due to installers sometimes falling off roofs!

E.g. https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/death-rates-from-energy-p...

I really do not understand why almost no one bothers to spend a couple of minutes looking up the actual numbers and analysis that people have been doing for decades... its universal in all subjects, not just nuclear.

However rooftop solar reduces the need for a grid and grid maintenance. Are the deaths due to grid building and maintenance accounted for in these figures? It looks to be based on just production, not production plus distribution.

And solar increases the need for storage. There are certainly all kinds of indirect effects that might skew those numbers, and so it's very much possible solar does better. That isn't really the point - the point is that nuclear is a whole lot safer than many widespread alternatives.

While some would like nuclear to replace solar as well, I think most of those of us who see nuclear as unnecessarily maligned are more frustrated by how e.g. coal and fossil fuels remain in the mix despite the massive number of deaths they cause. E.g. the German decision to shut down nuclear plants and as a consequence needing to run coal plants longer will likely cause more deaths than all nuclear plants combined through the history of nuclear power.

Sure. I too am annoyed by the shut down of nuclear power plants. Any marginal ultra-long-term safety gain of not generating new waste is more than offset by the already sunk costs of the nuclear power plant. And the bad effects of coal burning.

Also, spent nuclear fuel is very easy to safely dispose of, we just don't want to because:

A. It's useful and can be reprocessed into useful fuel once that's allowed and we can do it cheaply.

B. The media and public would throw a fit if people started dumping (glassed) nuclear waste on the ocean floor. Because the media and public are completely innumerate and cannot do things like multiplication required to calculate the less than 0.1% radioactivity increase the ocean would experience.

> German decision to shut down nuclear plants and as a consequence needing to run coal plants longer will likely cause more deaths than all nuclear plants combined through the history of nuclear power

That's a funny way of spelling cancelling tens to hundreds of gigawatts of renewable investment which was to replace those nuclear reactors and the fossil fuels and replacing them with gas.

If they'd come through on that, before shutting down the nuclear plants, you'd have a point. Without shutting down the nuclear power plants a lot of that money wouldn't have been needed in the first place. But it didn't happen, and so it's perfectly reasonable to blame them for either or both of those decisions. Fact remains that in retaining the coal power they've caused a huge number of unnecessary deaths.

The people that made the decision to cancel the planmed renewables are not pro renewables.

Your bad propaganda is completely incoherent.

My "bad propaganda" does not rely on the intent of any of the people who did this cancellations. All it relies on is the fact that the shut down of nuclear ensured a reliance on coal that has killed and will kill a huge number of people.

If you're trying to make a point, you're failing.

Still incoherently blaming the cancellation of wind and solar on the installatin of wind and solar. It's like having your junkie housemate steal the money you were going to spend on a LEV after you sold your car and spend it on drugs, then blaming the LEV.

I've done no such thing. If you're unable to understand my comments maybe don't comment on them.

Because the 'actual numbers' were protested against even by the scientists on whose work they are based and represent (or rather misrepresent) what an industry that is constantly trying to cut corners does when there is enough attention and scepticism to go around to stop them before they do anything critically stupid.

In spite of various plant operators' attempts, no serious accident has ever occured because there are mass protests and an industry regulator which hasn't been captured (yet). There is no precedent for this ever continuing if a toxic industry is accepted by the public and every precedent of it turning into a relationship like chevron has with the amazon.

Solar is also front loaded, whereas nuclear stays an existential threat to an entire region for decades after decomissioning at the very least. The risk from plants that shut down in the 60s has not yet passed.

Of course they cut corners! They're so overburdened with endless overly cautious regulations that see spending a billion man hours as better than letting a single curie of material get loose into the wider environment (which is incredibly stupid given how much more good a billion man hours can do in, say, healthcare). If they didn't cut corners nothing would get done.

And once corner cutting starts it doesn't distinguish well between the actually important rules and the ineffectual or overly cautious ones. Overregulation is an actual safety threat.

"Of course they're going to be willfully negligent! Just change the rules so they're allowed to kill you and they won't have to break them." While being novel isn't particularly compelling. It also has no explanatory power over all of the corruption and willful negligence pre-1979 or the spiralling costs elsewhere.

We allow people to drive. We allow burning of fossil fuels and use of tires.

These things kill people. Life is not infinitely valuable, a higher quality of life for years can be worth a few life hour reduction in life expectancy.

In the domain of public policy, money is lives. Spending more money on nuclear safety means less money on cancer detection or rare disease research, which costs lives. Spending money inefficiently costs lives.

> It also has no explanatory power over all of the corruption and willful negligence pre-1979 or the spiralling costs elsewhere.

By the latter, are you referring to Cost Disease?

There is a fractal of terrible assumptions here.

I grew up very anti-nuclear, but a lot of it was conflation of nuclear energy with nuclear weapons which, back in the 80s, felt like they could fall any moment.

But the technology has changed (though most reactors are not new), and more importantly, when compared with the effects of fossil fuels on climate, nuclear is by far the lesser evil. Sure, solar/wind/hydro renewables are important but they're not practical or feasible everywhere. I'm now pretty convinced nuclear needs to play an important part if we have any hope of significant emission reduction. So in that respect, as well meaning as the anti-nuclear green movement has been, they are wrong in opposing it today (in terms of power generation; nuclear weapons are an abomination).

> conflation of nuclear energy with nuclear weapons

"Conflation" means (or at least implies) that one thing has been mistaken for the other.

Nuclear reactors have been entwined with nuclear weapons production since the very beginning. The British MAGNOX reactors were designed (and used) to produce warheads as well as energy. Iran is under sanctions partly because it's feared they'll use any reactor they build to make warheads.

>"Conflation" means (or at least implies) that one thing has been mistaken for the other.

Yes, and the word is being used correctly here.

>Nuclear reactors have been entwined with nuclear weapons production since the very beginning.

No, they have not. While it's possible to get civilian power plants to produce (breed) nuclear materials, they aren't designed for it. Almost all weapons production at places like Savannah River and Hanford was done with purpose specific plants that created plutonium and U-235 by design.

Iran is under sanctions not because it's feared they'll use power plants to make warheads but because they are working on enriching nuclear fuel to a level useful for weapons. IE, they're taking the same stuff that powers power plants and trying to concentrate it so they can make a weapon.

> Almost all weapons production at places like Savannah River and Hanford was done with purpose specific plants that created plutonium and U-235 by design.

That's as may be. But Wikipedia says that the "civilian" Magnox reactors were indeed used to manufacture Plutonium:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magnox

There aren't any of that design operating any more, and no more will be built, so they're not a proliferation issue. That particular design could be used that way (and was by the UK) which is a major reason no more will be built.

This made me laugh out loud.

1) I support Sizewell c & d. There's already two big reactors there, a third and fourth one make no difference to be fair. 2) I live about 20km from Sizewell. 3) The road that will be choked with traffic from building it is 1.5km away, the rail track is also 1.5km away - they should really build a sea pier like last time. 4) 5 years ago the wet storage at Sizewell suffered a leak. 5) No one noticed, until someone decided to do a wash [https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2009/jun/11/nuclear-...] 6) If they hadn't noticed then pond would have boiled enough to expose the rods. This would have taken just a few hours. 7) A column of fire would have erupted out of the pond, creating a radioactive plume that would have rendered my house uninhabitable, for like, 200 years.

So, I do not give a toss about whether it glows green or not... but it's definitely scary stuff that needs to be watched.

She is right about weapons though, that stuff is the real deal. There's 1000 Hiroshima's worth of Plutonium in a shed on the other side of the country [ https://www.wired.co.uk/article/inside-sellafield-nuclear-wa...] - that's even scarier.

The author, who gives every appearance of being funded by the industry, founded an activist group that claims:

> Aim for 50% nuclear at least, as per the science.

Which suggests a pretty cavalier attitude to "the science".

edit: I take it back, she's in cahoots with Shellenberger and GWPF so it's the fossil fuel industry that she's supporting.

I thought the timing was mysteriously exact for both her and Shellenberger to be running the same "I used to be an environmentalist" story:

https://www.netzerowatch.com/gwpf-welcomes-newfound-realism-...

> In recent days, former Extinction Rebellion spokesman Zion Lights has announced her conversion to the cause of nuclear energy, while so-called “eco-modernist” Michael Shellenberger has gone further, and apologised for the years he spent scaremongering over climate change in a long article at Forbes website.

> Welcoming these developments, GWPF director Dr Benny Peiser said:

> It’s great to see these prominent green campaigners disavowing the eco-extremism that has done such damage to the world. When Michael Shellenberger says that climate change isn’t even the biggest environmental problem the world faces, he’s echoing a view that the GWPF has highlighted since our inception.”

Extinction rebellion have a page on her (NSFW warning for some nudity in the banner image):

https://extinctionrebellion.uk/2020/09/16/statement-on-zion-...

> There have been a number of stories in the press in the last few weeks with criticisms about Extinction Rebellion by Zion Lights, UK director of the pro-nuclear lobby group Environmental Progress. It appears that Lights is engaged in a deliberate PR campaign to discredit Extinction Rebellion.

> For any editors who might be considering platforming Lights, we would like to make you aware of some information about the organisation she works for and her employer, Michael Shellenberger.

The author gave a fairly detailed account of how nuclear waste is processed and its general safety. Which claims do you take issue with?

As it stands, I have learned considerably more from her post.

Hopefully you didn't learn too many false things, like e.g. her claim:

> I also learned that batteries cannot be recycled.

I would like to see a MASSIVE increase in the amount of nuclear power in use around the world. AND, I appreciate calling out conflicts of interest, astroturfing, and artificial "viral" information campaigns.

Thank you for outing the author.

There is one problem with Nuclear power that was never talked about before the Ukraine War: War itself. More specifically, war in the area that is powered by nuclear. Damage to reactors, power plant workers fleeing, damage to nuclear waste containers, and more.

Radioactive material is not something you can only find in nuclear plants (you can get same levels of radioactive materials in hospitals for example), there are also much easier ways to cause worse disasters (think about destroying a dam for example)

how is destroying an entire dam easier than making an armed incursion into a nuclear power plant to steal radioactive waste? Just in terms of metric tons of ammunition needed

not to mention, maybe the place you want to attack doesn't have a dam?

A destroyed dam is temporary damage. There are going to be eventually gravely ill Russian soldiers last year because they ignored the warnings in the Chernobyl exclusion area.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/08/world/europe/ukraine-cher...

> In a particularly ill-advised action, a Russian soldier from a chemical, biological and nuclear protection unit picked up a source of cobalt-60 at one waste storage site with his bare hands, exposing himself to so much radiation in a few seconds that it went off the scales of a Geiger counter, Mr. Simyonov said. It was not clear what happened to the man, he said.

> But in invisible hot spots, some covering an acre or two, some just a few square yards, radiation can soar to thousands of times normal ambient levels.

> A soldier in such a spot would be exposed every hour to what experts consider a safe limit for an entire year, said Mr. Chareyron, the nuclear expert. The most dangerous isotopes in the soil are Cesium 137, Strontium 90 and various isotopes of plutonium. Days or weeks spent in these areas bring a high risk of causing cancer, he said.

"Temporary damage", really? The deaths of those downstream from a burst dam are no less permanent than the death of an irradiated Russian. And there are a lot more of the former than the latter.

Yes. Just like the black death was temporary damage.

Fission waste is truly long term. Just like desertification.

All deaths are permanent. Count them up and the result is clear.

All we are is dust in the wind.

I agree with you.

afaik all modern designs for nuclear power are aimed at being small so they can be installed underground, which would make them much safer during these events.

e.g. Here's a company that was licensed to build SMR (small modular reactors) last month that is designed to be underground https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NuScale_Power

As an add on to that - if nuclear energy did start becoming mass produced in the developed world where some modicum of safety/regulation around waste can be assumed, once all of the necessary reactors are built out to supply first world energy needs, at best, those same private developers/contractors will start lobbying efforts in more questionable parts of the world to build these things. Then it be framed as an equity issue - why is the first world preventing the rest of the world from catching up - even though its actually just a plain "it's not safe to build it in a country in the middle of a civil war".

The more likely scenario I would envision is that - under the guise of business "joint venture partnerships in next generation energy" - the technological know how and access to a steady stream of the requisite raw materials to build weapons will leak to more questionable parts of the world.

I think this is rather a silly thing to be concerned about given the consequences of the world either running out of cheap energy or continuing to dump huge amounts of CO2 into the atmosphere. I will roll the dice on your crystal ball being defective rather than the alternative.

My hot take, pretending I was an environmentalist, is that fossil fuel/climate change is the object d'ire for environmentalists only because nuclear ended up not gaining traction. The masses of environmentalists have moved on to a different front of the battlefield for protecting the earth but would return if nuclear gained traction.

It's kind of like now that humans conquered polio and smallpox, the next challenge toward advancing the human race is ridding ourselves of cancer. If polio and smallpox returned, we'd be back to fighting those.

Your baseless theories ascribing borderline malicious intentions on the part of actors like environmentalists and nuclear construction interests are amusing, but I fail to see why they should be taken seriously.

It actually seems to be a case study that empirically proves the opposite. Hundreds of thousands dead in the Russian invasion of Ukraine so far, untold injuries. Incredible amounts of destruction of cities and civilian infrastructure. But yet none from an exploding nuclear power plant. Why? Because its not really possible and it serves very little point. If the goal is to terrorize people and inflict damage there are much better ways as has been demonstrated.

> power plant workers fleeing

That is an argument for no power plants with workers anywhere.

In WW2 dams were attacked causing lots of damage. I haven't seen anyone using that as an argument that we should demolish all hydro dams lest they become targets in a future war. Strangely this kind of thinking only applies to nuclear power.

You may find this bit of history interesting: https://www.rferl.org/a/european-remembrance-day-ukraine-lit...

Control/operation of nuclear plants has already been a target of brinksmanship. And while your point about dams is a good one, disasters like a dam collapse (which just happened as a result of the Turkey/Syria earthquake, and is adding to the already catastrophic devastation), are more localized in time than nuclear incidents which present long-term environmental challenges. Sometime I'd like to visit Chernobyl, but I'm not sure I'd live there.

> But yet none from an exploding nuclear power plant. Why?

Interesting question.

I think the answer is that Russia didn't plan to occupy the largest nuclear power plant in Europe; they occupied Ukrainian territory, and there was a NPP in it. I think it's inconvenient for them to have international inspectors paying attention to the ZNPP. It's right on the frontline; it's on the shore of this huge reservoir on the Dniepro, and Ukraine occupies the opposite shore.

Russia doesn't need the energy from ZNPP; if there's one thing they have plenty of, it's energy.

And for Ukraine's part, they are playing a slow game. I think it suits them that Russia has this inconvenience in the middle of their frontline.

If a pressurized water reactor is hit breached with explosives, it instantly releases superheated water vapor carrying radioactive iodine and caesium.

For reactors that could be threatened, they should be "walk-away safe" and even more focused on recycling spent fuel so large quantities are not necessary to keep on hand.

While these are reasons to be suspicious, they do not counter a single point she made in her article. Her logic and her facts were solid.

If they're not, I'd love to see a take down of that. But I see no problem with anything she wrote, I remain convinced nuclear is the only rational energy source left, and all this fear mongering about nuclear is causing us to slowly kill ourselves.

If we had started a serious decarbonization 20 yeats ago, sure, but solar is now so cheap and easy that it will be harder for large scale nuclear to ramp up in time to matter. Maybe those container nuclear plants and maybe the last 20% of base capacit by 2040. But slowing solar in deference to nuclear would prolong the era of high atmospheric carbon.

> so cheap and easy

I think this is a little misleading, unless there' a good story for storage and long distance power transmission, which I haven't seen yet.

China’s doing amazing work on long distance transmission using high voltage DC:

https://youtu.be/rThkjp-bp8M

I think we could build 100 plants in under a decade - it takes us being willing to build them assembly line like, meaning no more 'designed for the site' plants.

The EPR and AP1000 reactor designs were supposed to be the end of "designed for the site" reactors, and they were. The same designs get built at different geographic locations. The problem is that they're no better at meeting cost and schedule targets than older reactor designs. They're still late and over budget.

Can small modular reactors like those designed by NuScale do better? Maybe. But we're not going to find out sooner than 2030, which is when NuScale plans to have its first plant operational: https://www.nuscalepower.com/en/about

How about we stop this ridiculous nuclear vs. renewables culture war, while fossil fuels are laughing all the way to the bank? Yes, we should build more solar (and even as a 'nuke bro', seeing solar prices drop at the rate they have is one of the genuinely positive news in the otherwise pretty dystopic climate change discourse), we should build more nuclear, we should build wind, we should build more hydro (though not that much potential left), we should build transmission, we should build storage.

> but solar is now so cheap and easy that it will be harder for large scale nuclear to ramp up in time to matter

There's still the storage and base load problem. But I am 100% with you that we shouldn't slow solar in deference to nuclear; what we should be doing is mapping out what we want our next generation energy mix to look like (solar, wind, pumped storage, nuclear, geothermal, etc) on a regional basis, stop fucking around and arguing about it, and just get on with building it.

I live in an area (Canadian prairies) where max energy consumption lines up with with minimum solar and wind production (-40C in December on a calm night). Even during the day, those calm bitterly cold days only have about 8 hours of sunlight from a sun that barely comes over the horizon. We're starting to build solar, we've had wind for a while, but even though we've committed to building SMR Nuclear, we're still in a situation where we've got coal and natural gas plants that are approaching EOL and they'll likely be replaced/retrofitted to burn more fossil fuels because we won't have any sufficiently reliable baseload ready.

The Canadian prairies have fabulous solar production, even in the winter time. They also have a good amount of wind.

And BC has tons of hydro.

So build out enough renewables to supply BC when the sun is shining, maybe even enough to pump some water uphill, and then have BC hydro supply the prairies at other times.

So I’m looking at this from the perspective of completely eliminating fossil fuels from my home. Not just electricity, but heating as well. I want solar to win, but here’s the numbers I get from looking at December/January this year (my bills don’t quite line up cleanly on month boundaries):

863 m^3 of natural gas -> ~9100 kWh of heating energy

Assuming (generously) that I can get a COP of 3, even though that’s unrealistic at the miserable temperatures we had over the last few months, that’s ~3000 kWh for electric heat pump heat.

Electricity was about 745kWh for the month, so 3750kWh total between heat pump heating and electricity.

https://www.cer-rec.gc.ca/en/data-analysis/energy-markets/ma... shows 3.5kWh/mo/m^2 for December and 4.4kWh/mo/m^2 for January. Let’s go with January to be generous.

3750kWh/mo / 4.4kWh/mo/m^2 = 852 m^2 = 9170 sq.ft. of solar required to cover both my electricity and heating needs.

If I look at just electricity it’s a lot easier. 745 / 4.4 = 169m^2 = 1800 sq.ft. which is essentially the same footprint as the house. Heating completely kills it though and is, I suspect for most people, an even larger source of carbon than their electricity use. At least looking at those two bills, there’s an $88 carbon tax charge on the natural gas bill and only $8 on the electrical bill.

Yeah, I'm not sure if rooftop can quite cut it for Saskatchewan like it can for Australia for instance.

I've got one family member in Saskatchewan with rooftop solar looking at numbers similar to you. Another has 40 acres and a honey operation so just has ground mounted solar and often zeroes his electricity bill even during winter months, although he's still using gas for heating. Just got a heat pump water heater, so he's heading in that direction.

Saskatchewan has lots of land, so we we can do it collectively even if we can't do it ourselves just with roof tops.

Yeah, like, the nice thing about those numbers is that it does work out that solar can very clearly be an effective part of the mix. Out at our family’s farm, there’s a pretty much perfect spot for a long line of solar panels at the south end of the yard that would have no problem zeroing out the electrical bill (is SaskPower still doing net metering? I don’t even know) and probably reducing some of the gas bill as well.

As far as the urban spots go, my electricity+gas numbers there approximately match the size of the entire lot. Extrapolating a bit and assuming that my house is “average”, that works out to needing a solar farm about the size of Regina to power the city in the winter. Maybe half the size when considering all of the street area.

>is SaskPower still doing net metering?

As of last year they just give a 25% credit.

Both certainly have their place and the balance has definitely shifted from where it was thirty years ago - renewables are much more competitive now but I think Nuclear has a pretty critical role to play when it comes to surge capacity.

The fossil fuel industry is not funding pro-nuclear arguments because they want to see 50% of their business lost to nuclear. They are not worried about losing huge profits to nuclear because from a purely economic perspective nuclear is not cost-competitive with fossil fuels. Hence it doesn’t pose a major threat, absent massive government-subsidized build-outs (which aren’t remotely on the table now.)

The fossil fuel industry is funding pro-nuclear PR because they realize that renewables do pose a major economic threat to their business in the short term, since they are now cost-effective enough to replace vast chunks of their business (even if not 100% of it.) Pro-nuclear (and coincidentally anti-renewable) PR is the most efficient way to protect their business. If they can convince the public [incorrectly] that the best way to decarbonize rapidly is to abandon/block renewable build-outs because “nuclear is the only way” then they’ve paid enormous dividends to their shareholders.

If your response to the above is “these random technical points are correct, what’s the problem”, then the problem is: those random technical points are largely a distraction from the important questions of how we decarbonize quickly. The fossil fuel industry understands this perfectly, because they have a lot of skin in the game.

Can you share the details about renewables being cost competitive with oil?

chat.openai.com claims it is true, albeit without specific sources:

Yes, there is a significant amount of data and research that supports the increasing competitiveness of renewable energy compared to oil. Here are a few examples:

The International Energy Agency (IEA) reported that in 2020, the average global cost of producing electricity from solar photovoltaic (PV) systems was lower than the cost of producing electricity from new fossil fuel plants, including coal and natural gas.

A recent study by the consultancy firm Lazard found that the cost of utility-scale solar and wind energy in the United States has fallen significantly in recent years, and is now cheaper than the cost of power generated from coal and natural gas in most regions of the country.

The US Department of Energy's National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) reported that the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) for wind and solar energy in the United States has fallen by more than 50% over the past decade, and is projected to continue to decline in the future.

According to the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), the cost of solar PV and wind energy has declined by over 80% and 60%, respectively, since 2010. IRENA also found that renewable energy is now the cheapest source of new power generation in many countries, including Brazil, China, India, Mexico, and the United States.

These are just a few examples, but they demonstrate the trend of declining costs for renewable energy and increasing competitiveness with oil and other fossil fuels.

Out of curiosity, I asked "How can we fix the climate crisis? Be specific."

Obviously we shouldn't rely on ChatGPT for our answers to life, but it's not a terrible list. Except for the absolute lack of any mention of nuclear, which I think fairly reflects the zeitgeist but not the real science.

Here's what it said:

1. Switch to Renewable Energy Sources: We should phase out the use of fossil fuels and switch to renewable energy sources, such as wind, solar, geothermal, and hydropower. This would reduce carbon dioxide emissions and other pollutants from burning fossil fuels.

2. Increase Energy Efficiency: We should invest in technologies and practices that reduce energy consumption, such as LED lighting, efficient heating and cooling systems, and better insulation.

3. Plant Trees and Protect Forests: Trees absorb carbon dioxide, so planting more of them can help reduce the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. We should also protect existing forests and prevent deforestation.

4. Reduce Food Waste: Food waste is a major contributor to climate change, as it releases methane and other greenhouse gases when it decomposes. We should reduce food waste and increase food recycling.

5. Reduce Meat Consumption: Animal agriculture is a major source of carbon dioxide and other air pollutants, so reducing meat consumption can help reduce emissions. We should also promote plant-based diets.

6. Improve Transportation: We should invest in public transportation, electric vehicles, and other low-emission transportation options. This would reduce emissions from cars and other vehicles.

7. Educate and Advocate: We must educate people about the causes and consequences of climate change, and advocate for public policies that can help mitigate climate change.

No. They are not remotely cost competitive, the data saying otherwise is a case of lying with statistics.

Yes, the cost of generating a watt-hour of power from renewables is competitive with fossil fuels. If you could put those watt-hours in a tank somewhere those numbers would work. However, a tank for a watt-hour is called a battery--and storing that watt-hour is going to cost you more than creating it.

In practice what happens is that renewables reduce the fuel use by gas plants. You still need just as many gas plants, though, and once you count those costs the renewables are no longer the cheapest.

Perplexity.ai provides explicit sources:

https://www.perplexity.ai/?s=u&uuid=2921714c-3614-41ae-82d1-...

>then they’ve paid enormous dividends to their shareholders.

Who are themselves.

(Just thought the story would make more sense if I filled in that last part. :-))

> The fossil fuel industry is funding pro-nuclear PR because they realize that renewables do pose a major economic threat to their business in the short term

Last time I heard, it wasn't pro-nuclear France that urgently built a new LNG terminal, it was staunchly anti-nuclear Germany (in 2023!!). So I have doubt about your analysis.

I hope you also heard that Germany exports electricity to France. The natural gas is mostly needed for heating and industrial processes and that cannot be simply replaced by nuclear electricity.

You're sharing misleading information here. While this is true recently, it's not like France has been consistently short of energy. Typically it's Germany that imports energy from France.

"Due to the technical problems affecting French reactors, Germany for the first time sold more power to France than it received from its neighbour, doubling its year-earlier export volume there.

France produced 15.1% less power in 2022 and the volume fell short of national usage by 1%."

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/even-crisis-germany-...

It's not an externally imposed constraint that Germany's heating and industrial processes require natural gas; it's the result of Germany's conscious decision to build them on gas instead of electricity. Hard to interpret it as anything but pro-fossil-fuels.

I wonder if it's not even more cynical than that because it doesn't seem right. We still need an alternative controllable* source of energy when renewables can't cover the demand (no wind, no sunshine), and it needs to cover peak demand... For now aside from hydro it's mostly fossil fuels: coal, gas and oil.

As far as the current tech goes, my understanding is that "renewables" are much more compatible with profits from fossil fuel than nuclear power is.

* is "controllable" the right word in this context in english?

> * is "controllable" the right word in this context in english?

I believe the appropriate term is dispatchable.

How are renewables more competitive with fossil fuel than nuclear when it comes to storage and transmission? At least nuclear can keep producing when the sun is down and the wind isn't blowing. It's also more energy dense, so it can scale to cover demand. We're not decarbonizing the economy without those factors being accounted for.

> The fossil fuel industry is funding pro-nuclear PR because they realize that renewables do pose a major economic threat to their business in the short term, since they are now cost-effective enough to replace vast chunks of their business (even if not 100% of it.) Pro-nuclear (and coincidentally anti-renewable) PR is the most efficient way to protect their business. If they can convince the public [incorrectly] that the best way to decarbonize rapidly is to abandon/block renewable build-outs because “nuclear is the only way” then they’ve paid enormous dividends to their shareholders.

This is an interesting theory devoid of evidence to back it up.

> If your response to the above is “these random technical points are correct, what’s the problem”

I don’t disagree whatsoever that the fossil fuel industry is up to tricks. What I’m saying is I don’t care what their intentions are. I care about results. If Hitler came back and found a way to fix climate change, but his intention was in order to create a better planet for Aryan people, I’d simultaneously despise him and support the fix.

That’s an extreme example of course, but trying to make my point that when we’re facing extinction, we shouldn’t take solutions off the table. We should ignore intentions and look at results.

To me, all this arguing about their intentions is a distraction that keeps us from solving the problem.

We have a slim chance of fixing climate change, and I have yet to see a single fact to dissuade me from believing nuclear is our best hope. Even if the people behind the push turned out to be scumbags.

> The fossil fuel industry is not funding pro-nuclear arguments because they want to see 50% of their business lost to nuclear.

In Germany it's the same companies running fossil and nuclear btw.

They also expand into renewables now.

Nuclear is not cost-competitive in the US because it is defined as not being competitive! The problem is the standard for radiation is as low as reasonably achievable. Oops, that means that if nuclear isn't expensive that means you could pile more safety systems on it. It's a stealth ban.

Now, if your objective is public safety you should use a different standard: Better than any viable competing technology. Within the limit of rounding nuclear is currently 100x safer than it's closest competitor: natural gas. By mandating that level of nuclear safety we are actually increasing deaths by causing the use of a far more dangerous technology instead.

(And note that her post repeats a common mistake about nuclear safety--assigning the Fukushima deaths to the nuclear plant rather than to the politicians. The evacuation of the city did not make sense from a safety standpoint. Growing food there will not be a good idea for some time but the expected death toll from sitting put was zero. The only non-worker nuclear power deaths are from Chernobyl.)

https://www.agilitypr.com/pr-news/public-relations/how-to-cr...

Nuclear should be a part of decarbonization, and you can search my comment history here to see I've said so for a long time. But the breezy 'I was misinformed!' tone of this article is PR because it dismisses rather than engages with criticisms of the nuclear industry.

For contrast, consider that British Nuclear Fuels used the Irish Sea as a dumping ground for nuclear waste through the 1970s, becoming a significant bone of contention between the UK and the Republic of Ireland: https://cdn.thejournal.ie/media/2012/11/filedownload31607en....

Though practices have since changed and risks appear to have been mitigated, the substack article just ignores the uncomfortable reality of past abuses which should inform policy assessments. When someone tells a just-so story, even if you agree with it - in fact, especially then - you should question whether it's purpose is to educate or to manipulate.

> While these are reasons to be suspicious, they do not counter a single point she made in her article.

True.

> her logic and her facts were solid.

I came to a somewhat different conclusion after reading that article: I felt it was sufficiently blatant, manipulative, and simply wrong that no one would fall for that. Ah well.

It takes a decade to bring a nuclear plant online, at astronomical cost. Instead, why not take that money and start building wind turbines, solar PV and grid-scale batteries? They can start generating (ie. delivering ROI) in a matter of months, be constructed incrementally and are cheaper per KWH.

Newer designs (existing reactors use 1970s technology) are cheaper and faster to build. Look up the concept of "Small Modular Reactors".

If Wikipedia isn’t missing some examples, there’s exactly one of those operating now in Russia. That seems like we might need more data points before proclaiming them cheaper and faster in the present tense.

I’m totally on board for building more but it doesn’t seem like this is a solved problem yet.

> I also learned that batteries cannot be recycled.

That seems factually incorrect, and the anti-renewables paragraph was the thing that jumped out at me most, though the author claims not "to say that we should abandon renewables altogether, but to illustrate that all energy generation carries an environmental cost, and no solution is perfect."

> GWPF

The Global Warming Policy Foundation, a British foundation highly critical of the anthropogenic global warming scientific consensus.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Global_Warming_Policy_Foun...

> anthropogenic global warming scientific consensus

Isn't there some serious, vigorous debate on this topic?

No, there's not. Virtually all scientists with any knowledge of the relevant science concede that global warming is occurring, largely due to human activity.

What's more, the core facts of anthropogenic climate change are based on fairly basic thermodynamics, and were predicted with decent accuracy as far back as 1896. A great little book covering this is the recent The Physics of Climate Change.

The only real debate is whether completely upending the climate in a very short (ecologically speaking) time frame will be net beneficial for humans or net detrimental for humans. We know it will be net detrimental for the general ecology and currently existing species.

And from what I've read a bunch of the people claiming it will be a benefit for humans are speaking strictly on an economic basis, not a quality of life basis.

There's an inverse correlation between the intensity of your coefficients.

Not really. There are a few people that disagree with the consensus (that's the definition after all) and they get outsized media attention.

There's a lot of noise made by those whose ox is going to get gored by getting serious about the climate. There's no scientific debate other than in the size of the debacle. (For example, methane hydrate--it's not included in the IPCC reports at all because our estimates are still too wide. Note that on the high end it's *worse* than the high end estimates for the effects of CO2--and they will add. Earth has seen that kind of temperature before--most of the rocks laid down at that time don't have fossils.)

Shellenberger is such a hack it's hard to stomach, it's a shame that he went full throttle into the tedious IDW culture wars rather than doing something useful with his time.

Good pickup. Reading it I really couldn't see someone that was anti nuclear yet claims to have not been aware / motivated enough to learn about key, basic concepts like radioactive decay now being capable of writing a piece like this. It is very well crafted to apologetically make an antinuclear view point look juvenile and immature.

> It is very well crafted to apologetically make an antinuclear view point look juvenile and immature.

That was my reaction; but the way she characterizes her younger self was not at all convincing. People who change their views show more sympathy and understanding for their younger self than the author does, who just dismisses herself as a naive idiot (before moving on to explain the rather basic things she's "learned" about radioactive materials in the meantime).

OK, but she's not incorrect as far as the need for more nuclear esp in lieu of fossil fuels

Shill or not, she's right.

i don’t see the problem supporting something with both words and facts

if you think that nuclear is an awesome energy source why shouldn’t you work for increasing its adoption?

> Extinction rebellion have a page on her (NSFW warning for some nudity in the banner image

Controversial opinion: by scaremongering about nuclear power—which the west could have started adopting in the 1970s like France did—the naked tree huggers did as much to set back climate change mitigation efforts as the oil lobby.

At least with the oil folks, they were pushing a status quo that was likely to stand until today anyway, because renewables have only become cost competitive relatively recently. Even without lobbying by the oil industry people had powerful incentives until now to stick with the technology that didn’t require them to put on a sweater or pay more for energy.

The anti-nuclear movement by contrast knee-capped the last best hope for climate change mitigation. A technology that could have been deployed—and catalyzed electrification and energy storage efforts—decades ago when we had more runway.

> Controversial opinion: by scaremongering about nuclear power—which the west could have started adopting in the 1970s like France did—the naked tree huggers did as much to set back climate change mitigation efforts as the oil lobby.

You would have thought that France would have supplied the European continent with electricity now that Russia cut its gas supply, but it turns out that France received electricity from Germany even during this time.

It turns out that even new builds of nuclear power plants take years to be completed. Getting safety right is a challenge, the more we know about engineering and material science for nuclear plants, the more we know about challenges in building them, the more we need to do to avoid these risks, the harder it is to build a safe power plant.

You wouldn't have thought that unless you thought France had capacity to power Germany just lying around.

Apparently Germany had capacity to power France just lying around.

Literally lying around in a pile of beautiful black lumps of coal.

and also beautiful brown lignite

What you don’t know is that in the 2010’s the left wing had a agreement with the Green Party to stop all nuclear by 2050. That’s why we stop financing and maintaining a lot of nuclear plants. It turned out it was a bad idea..

While I don’t know anything about that agreement, I assume it would have had been a push for renewables.

By 2050 it will be easily possible to power the world using renewables. Ending nuclear at that point doesn’t sound like a bad idea to me.

How do you know it will be possible by 2050 to go full renewable?

By using elementary grade extrapolation. Right now in 2023 there are multiple countries generating over 90% of electricity from renewables.

Which ones? Are we talking 90%, an the entire year, without creative accounting?

Disregarding electric dams because, while wonderful, those depend heavily on the country geography and I assume a lot of countries cannot build enough of them. (but we should build as much as we can of those, just don't expect 50% hydroelectricity everywhere)

> Which ones?

Norway 98% since 2016. Costa Rica 98% since 2015. Scotland 97% in 2020. Uruguay 98% in 2021. New Zealand pushing close to 90%.

> Are we talking 90%, an the entire year, without creative accounting?

I don’t know what this means. If a country reports that X amount of energy came from a particular source in a particular year, that means the entire year. And if you believe these countries are lying and doing “creative accounting”, then the burden of proof lies with you to prove it, not for me to disprove it.

Norway: large hydro resources, low population. Costa Rica: 80% hydro. Scotland: https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-56530424 says that renewable met 97% of energy demand, which does not mean that clean electricity was produced when it was needed in Scotland. Considering that this means the country could run at 97% of its production potential with only RE is what I consider "creative accounting". (the article does not lie but interpreting it that way is mistaken). Uruguay: only 31% hydro, that's more interesting. New Zealand: 55% hydro, 13% geothermal.

So except for Uruguay (which does look interesting), most countries mostly use renewable dispatchable sources which are perfect. But not all countries have the hydro potential / population ratio of Norway. We should use hydro as much as we can but we are limited by geography; once everything that can be used is we are stuck with nuclear, wind or solar. Maybe Uruguay could be an example of country that manages somehow with mostly solar/wind; I need to look into it. Thank you.

Keep in mind it is also possible for countries to export electricity; for the world to be powered by renewables each country needs not produce 100% of it’s own energy demands.

This is of paramount importance. Add storage (V2G...) and clean backup (green hydrogen...).

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/180592/european-cooperation-...

Some references: https://twitter.com/AukeHoekstra/status/1557466581185224704

No.

The sole closed nuclear plant (Fessenheim) was the oldest one, disputed by neighboring nations Germany and Switzerland (all owning stakes in it!) for seismic-related risks. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fessenheim_Nuclear_Power_Plant...

A new reactor (Flamanville-3, an EPR) was ordered in 2004, work began in 2007 for a delivery in 2012, it is not delivered yet and 6x times over-budget. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flamanville_Nuclear_Power_Plan...

A huge program (55 to 95 billions euros) aiming at upgrading all existing reactors in order to run them for 60 or even 80 years was launched and runs: https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_car%C3%A9nage

Governments adopted sustained nuclear R&D budgets. See «Graphique 1», French ahead: https://www.ecologie.gouv.fr/energie-recherche-et-developpem...

Governments also sold reactors to Finland (running project, way over-budget and delay), China (2 reactors, over-budget and delay, and they stayed offline or at low-power for a full year after an incident) and the U.-K. (this is a running project, already late and over-budget).

France was strongarmed by Germany and by shitty election related deals to elect Hollande into massive nuclear power closures and reductions, coupled with presidents unable to see more than 5 years ahead means that nuclear plants both do not get renewed and also get closed for absolutely no reason. See Fessenheim.

The issue with construction isn't that it's hard to build a safe power plant, it's that there's been no will from anyone, or active harm from incompetent shitheads.

Hollande wanted to diversify France because it's not and they had to pay for this stupidity and still do to this day.

Fessenheim is the perfect reason for why Hollande wanted to close some of those plants: old, accident ridden, one of those which have to be closed down in summer due to possible overheating of nearby rivers and to top that off: it's in a region which may have earthquakes for which it is not prepared...

> The issue with construction isn't that it's hard to build a safe power plant, it's that there's been no will from anyone, or active harm from incompetent shitheads.

Weird because there are plenty western countries which do have popular support for nuclear energy but still struggle with construction times and costs in astronomical ways.

Fessenheim was amongst the top performing nuclear plants, and had no issues being given a 10 year renewal because of how safe it was before it was closed for political reasons. The EELV/Die Grunde kool-aid is not a good thing to drink considering how anti science they are.

And as always, the same awful arguments about "don't overheat the rivers", when the limits set by the safety regulations are way under anything that could damage the environment. You could triple the output heat in the river and it would change absolutely nothing.

Hollande did not want to diversify our energy production. It was a purely political play to get EELV's support and used Fessenheim as a sacrificial chip. Glad to see the German energiewende led to such diversification that you're running half your country on coal right now btw. https://app.electricitymaps.com/zone/DE

> essenheim was amongst the top performing nuclear plants, and had no issues being given a 10 year renewal because of how safe it was

That is false. It was an old and accident ridden plant.

> And as always, the same awful arguments about "don't overheat the rivers", when the limits set by the safety regulations are way under anything

Luckily those limits are set by people who know what they're doing and not the nuclear astroturf online.

> Hollande did not want to diversify our energy production. It was a purely political play to get EELV's support and used Fessenheim as a sacrificial chip.

That's pure propaganda from the opposite political spectrum and is not even worth the discussion anymore at this point.

> Glad to see the German energiewende led to such diversification that you're running half your country on coal right now btw. https://app.electricitymaps.com/zone/DE

We even had to get some coal plants back from retirement (just like you did) because your rotting nuclear fleet isn't performing and it's cold outside. You're welcome :)

Energiewende was cancelled by the Merkel governments in favour of nuclear until they made a turnaround with regards to nuclear after Fukushima.

Exactly, the phase-out plan was initially delayed in late 2010: the government decreed a 12-year delay of the schedule. Then something unpleasant happened at Fukushima.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_power_in_Germany#Closu...

Our national energy company EDF has been the largest energy exporter in Europe for ages, in 2019 it was the largest in the world. In addition to that it's made us the cleanest country in the continent for close to 40 years (along with hydro-rich countries). The notion that 2022 is a smoking gun for nuclear is ridiculous. All it reflects is the past 12 years of successive liberal governments writing laws and reforms to gut our nuclear fleet and EDF in favour of private companies.

that is if La Hague isn't leaking nuclear waste

Even if it doesn't leak... France seeks strategy as nuclear waste site risks saturation point. https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/france-seeks-st...

Moreover the long-term deposit site (dubbed 'Cigéo') isn't ready.

Covid maintenance postponed + corrosion issues led to this bad timing; otherwise looks like it worked pretty well for decades.

France closed a working-order nuclear plant for political reasons just two years before, so we're not making exactly the brightest decisions here either.

Agree. It's quite possibly, and I say this in full awareness of the scope, one of the biggest own goals in the history of Earth.

The fossil fuel lobby has actually promoted nuclear FUD, including by funding anti-science "environmentalist" groups.

I've always hoped they're secretly funded/friends with the oil lobby, because otherwise that's just pure sadness.

I don't know if they were directly funded by the oil lobby, but I'm not sure that they needed to be either.

At a minimum, it seems that (thanks to ignorance) they lapped up all of the anti-nuclear FUD that was generated by the oil lobby and others.

Actually just by russia.

I'd like to also echo this. Best analysis of the history behind the anti-nuclear craze of the 60s and 70s is basically Russia infiltrated the Hippie Movement of the 60s to exploit the "government is bad" soft anarchism (=minarchism) in the movement to delay America from getting a leg up.

For the past 100+ years, Russia has been one of the largest energy players in the world, bigger than Saudi Arabia. You can see this today in the Russian Invasion in Ukraine, as Germany tries to comply with the international regulations and shut the Russian Nord Stream pipeline off and can't; Russia has a stranglehold on everyone on that side of the world.

So, given that, they feared an America that could meet its energy needs without pollution, heavy investment, and significant cost; while Russia was literally killing its own people to make the oil and gas flow as a cost of doing business. Thus, they slipped right in and used the Hippies to astroturf an anti-nuclear position.

Reagan may have torn down that wall, but Russia won the cold war; and then they made sure, post-Soviet, to make sure we'd never attain energy independence. The end result of that trainwreck is currently under investigation by the FBI as per the recommendations of the Jan 6th Committee.

Russia produce not only oil and gas but also is one of the biggest nuclear plant equipment exporters. If I were them I would rather sponsor articles on how it is hard to dispose of solar panels…

Russia is one of the biggest producers of nuclear power plants equipment.

https://thebreakthrough.org/blog/the-true-face-of-the-anti-n...

I can't believe you're blaming "tree huggers" for this, when the clear beneficiary is the global fossil fuel industry, who've been lobbying against nuclear power since the 50s. Shit, many anti-nuclear groups have been funded by fossil fuel industry for decades. At best, their protests were political cover for governments to do what the oil industry paid them to do.

Do you have sources for these claims?

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anti-nuclear_movement#Fossil...

The rabid anti nukes were more useful idiots. You’re right that the real power is in the fossil fuel industry which was happy to use them.

Is that really true in Germany? Chernobyl was such a big deal to the German public, making nuclear very unpopular.

Are you sure there's a difference here?

https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Greenpeace_Energy

I don't think so. People in the US have and have had net-positive views on nuclear energy. It's not like public sentiment has turned against nuclear energy because of naked tree hugging protesters. For example, this polling [1] from Pew shows that only 27% of the US public thinks the government should discourage nuclear power with everyone else saying the government should either encourage or be neutral towards it.

Of course some green energy climate tree hugger whatever protesters oppose nuclear energy, but they are powerless and don't change public opinion much and certainly don't influence outcomes. To my knowledge it's government regulations and laws that stifle nuclear energy - not protesters or climate people.

1 - https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2022/03/23/americans-c...

So, between the sheer 5x higher cost of nuclear power and people who hug trees your consided analysis is that the latter held back nuclear power more?

It's like an Illuminati conspiracy theory except with people who dont use soap...

Nuclear power is only "5x" higher cost if you utterly ignore the environmental catastrophe of fossil fuels.

Global warming will cost countless trillions and displace, sicken, and/or kill billions in the coming centuries.

I'm quite sure op meant 5x higher than certain renewables not fossil.

Nobody is talking about fossil anymore. It's on the way out just like nuclear.

At some point it will, but has fossil fuel use actually declined so far? From what a I’ve read, the Arctic is being looked at as a new frontier for oil and gas exploration as the ice retreats.

Yes, it has declined in countries which invest into renewables: https://www.cleanenergywire.org/factsheets/germanys-energy-c...

>Nuclear power is only "5x" higher cost if you utterly ignore the environmental catastrophe of fossil fuels.

Well, from, like 1960 until about 2010 everybody who built a power plant did exactly that.

And, from about 2015 onwards if you didn't ignore it it's still 5x more expensive than solar panels or wind farms.

So, between "expensive" and "people who hug trees and have no power", maybe it's the tree-illuminati people.

> which the west could have started adopting in the 1970s like France did

France is often considered to be in "The West".

Fear of nuclear is distrust in the government.

I believe in nuclear as a technology, and I believe in mankind's ability to perform science and engineering tasks.

I don't have a lot of faith in the role of the government in properly and adequately regulating a booming nuclear industry.

The hypothetical specter of government incompetence is greater than the actual harm being done here-and-now?

>Fear of nuclear is distrust in the government.

Is it though? The US Navy has a pretty impressive nuclear safety record for the number of reactors they have in service.

To flip it, would you have more trust in a private company with nuclear safety? If the same decisions being made that allows PG&E to cut their funding for maintenance that allows their lines to be the cause of California's forest fires, why would we trust they would pay for the upkeep on a nuclear reactor?

I've worked in the energy industry. There is complete capture there. When PG&E is the "bad guy" it's because the government needs them to be. ERCOT works the same way (though is better).

If the government wanted PG&E to properly fund their line maintenance, PG&E would properly fund their line maintenance.

Not sure if that's controversial? I don't think the fossil fuel industry (or Putin) could've wished for better allies than the Energiewende (anti-nuclear, pro Russian gas with a bit of solar and wind) supporters in Europe.

Whoever was behind it successfully managed to delay nuclear fission adoption by about 60 years for all of the EU and UK except France causing massive amounts of totally unnecessary CO2 emissions in the process.

Putin is an omni-present monster, sure, and an oil and gas monster to that. But he also is THE biggest nuclear power monster:

[Rosatom] ranks first in the overseas NPP construction, responsible for 76% of global nuclear technology exports: 35 nuclear power plant units, at different stages of development, in 12 countries, as of December 2020. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rosatom

I agree and I think the damage to humanity that the anti-nuclear movement has done is incalculable. So many years of progress have been missed out on... and while some of it was due to greed (fossil fuel industry funding), most of it was just misplaced fear, whether propaganda induced or from an inability to see the full picture.

The anti-nuclear movement is also still alive and doing well but at this point it's like arguing over spilled milk, the damage is mostly done and a lot of is irreversible. We can try to salvage nuclear but we've already regressed to further impure sources in some countries so progress seems unlikely.

There is so much wrong with this comment I'm not sure where to begin.

0. Nuclear is not forbidden.

1. Nuclear power is exceedingly common in many countries.

2. Electricity production is not (by far) the only source of carbon emissions. Why have we also not seen any major action to reduce emissions from other sources? Or did the treehuggers also force people to fly, eat meat and drive large cars?

3. > Last best hope.

Energy efficiency. Regulation incentivizing fuel efficiency. Low carbon public transportation. Incentives to reduce the carbon emissions from agriculture. Renewables. The list of available remedies is long.

But sure, go ahead and blame environmentalists for the destruction profit driven market capitalism caused. If that soothes your cognitive dissonance.

> Nuclear is not forbidden.

What is this point replying to?

Anyway, over-regulation can make nuclear energy commercially unviable. It doesn't take a ban for nuclear to die.

The regulation is there for a purpose. The idea that nuclear was "killed" by regulation is a kind of "stab-in-the-back" conspiracy theory.

If nuclear was truly this obvious answer to aquire abundant clean energy, wouldn't our business friendly leaders embrace it with open arms?

A couple of treehuggers didn't stop them from allowing overfishing the sea, or from extracting fuel from oil sands. Despite those things having very clear negative environmental consequences. And strong popular opposition.

But for Nuclear apparently they went totally in the opposite direction. Deaf to the cries of businessmen they heavily regulated an obviously harmless and extremly profitable energy industry to death?

Occam's razor says there's a simpler explanation.

The regulation is there for a reason, but it doesn't have to be a sensible or proportionate reason. Nuclear power is held to a ludicrously higher safety standard than fossil. You are right to suspect that business interests had a hand in subverting nuclear power - the issue is that while nuclear was getting off the ground, the fossil fuel industry was already well established and integrated with government. The anti-nuclear movement wasn't the ultimate cause, but it allied public opinion with a business interest it should have been viciously fighting.

> But sure, go ahead and blame environmentalists for the destruction profit driven market capitalism caused. If that soothes your cognitive dissonance

This is laughable. I come from a country that’s officially socialist. But even people from there want to come to Texas and drive a big SUV and live in a big house with a pool. Better yet, they want to attain that same standard of living in their own country.

If environmentalists tell people to turn down the thermostat and stop eating meet and crowd into public transit, they will lose every time.

> they will lose every time.

Then I dearly hope turning down the thermostat, stopping eating meat, and crowding in public transport isn't necessary to prevent climate change.

Because if it is, and if you're right, then we are fucked.

Because people in India and China want air conditioned malls, meat for every meal, and private cars. The governments in these regions are absolutely dependent on keeping those countries on a path to western prosperity for their legitimacy. Any climate change plan that contradicts that isn’t a serious plan and will fuck us all.

Then let the west (which has by far the largest carbon emissions per capita) lead the way! Show the world that prosperity isn't necessarily 2 cars and a heart attack at 67.

And to people saying it is not possible, I call bullshit. There are large carbon footprint variations within the West. Of course countries have different circumstances, but it's also very clearly a question of political will.

Point to me where in BD constitution it says that? Are you thinking of India?

> But sure, go ahead and blame environmentalists for the destruction profit driven market capitalism caused.

The alternative economic systems are even worse on environmental grounds, and their only saving grace is their ineptness and inefficiency, which limits the amount of damage they cause.

Like, have you heard about environmental disaster of Aral Sea? About how Soviet Union explicitly pursued maximizing fossil extraction as its core economic policy? About the environmental disaster of Great Leap Forward? Check out the list of 10 most polluted places in the world, where are they? Literally the only one that got its pollution under capitalism is in Zambia, all the rest are in former Soviet Union, China and India, which started doing market economy when they were already high polluters.

There are alternatives to both extremes

General nuclear paranoia stemming from Cold War M.A.D., Chernobyl and Three Mile Island seem to spring to my mind. Not so much your naked tree-hugger in a historical vacuum theory.

To me - it seems the existential fear around climate change is the topic of the day for environmentalists only because nuclear ended up not gaining traction. Nuclear waste/proliferation is not the number one existential threat these days only because it's used so little (both because of PR issues and lack of economics/long term maintenance challenges).

The masses of environmentalists moved on from nuclear in the 80's but would surely return if nuclear regained traction.

Smith-putnam was early 40s and both PV and the concept of an economic learning curve have been known since the 50s.

We could have had the wind and solar revolution any time in the last 70 years. Instead trillions were gifted to fossil fuel and nuclear con artists.

This blame of the failure of nuclear on them being forced to sort-of clean up some of their mess rather than just sending native people to mine with no PPE and dumping tailings and waste wherever is a sad attempt at gaslighting.

To point out the perhaps obvious, there's nothing in your post that addresses anything presented in the article on the fact or argument level.

"I don't like her and someone she works with" isn't persuasive. On a controversial topic, everyone with a view is going to be disliked by someone - it carries to significance.

I suppose your user name checks out...

As does yours.

Do you really expect anyone involved in this to be unaffiliated with some kind of group?

This is just an ad hominem attack that does nothing to rebut the arguments.

> Extinction rebellion have a page on her

You accuse someone to have a "cavalier attitude to science" and "being in cahoots with" parties you allege are suspicious and then you proceed to use Extinction Rebellion as a source? You should worry more how cavalier Extinction Rebellion are, and who they are in cahoots with.

Citation needed.

This message feels like you're trying to make a case that the author must be dismissed because of her group affiliation. Is there anything in the argument itself that you find incorrect or misleading?

> The author, who gives every appearance of being funded by the industry

This is a pretty serious claim.

> edit: I take it back, she's in cahoots with Shellenberger and GWPF so it's the fossil fuel industry that she's supporting.

This is an EVEN MORE serious claim.

Both of these need some serious backing. I don't see how what you're following up with is evidence to this claim. Maybe there's something I'm not getting because it just looks like typical group fighting to me. Political groups use strong language and often are quick to criticize other groups who are not aligned to a goal in the way that they are aligned (including wanting similar high level outcomes but through different means). I watched the Shellenberger Fox news link that they provided. More than half is Tucker on his typical idiotic rant then Shellenberger saying things that are like 70% true but out of context. Can't tell if he's just an idiot that doesn't grasp what "the nerds" are telling him or malicious (often difficult).

For the fossil fuel funding claims, I didn't dig in but I'll say that I actually wouldn't be surprised. These companies have a long history of funding several environmentalist groups. They had a history of funding Sierra Nevada Club[0] to promote anti-nuclear sentiment (this was highly successful btw). But the story here is actually more complicated than it would seem at first glance. I do think the Sierra Nevada Club members and even leaders (mostly) had good intentions and did believe that they were acting in the best interest of the environment. The same is probably true about the above group. But to see why this may be true we need to ask who benefits the most if you have differing groups that are concerned with reaching 0 emissions fighting one another? Fossil fuels. They are the current de facto solution to energy and unfortunately momentum is a powerful force. They've gladly promoted this war. (It's also not like they don't often try to paint themselves green. They fund plenty of green campaigns and even carbon scrubbing technologies. This is done for PR but those groups still get money. Kinda like filming yourself giving the homeless food and putting it on youtube. You get rich but the homeless probably (?) did get more food than they would have otherwise. The ethics is complicated here even if it is clear you're not a saint)

The fossil fuel industry wants us to think that the conversation is "renewables vs nuclear" instead of "renewables + nuclear vs renewables alone to fight fossil fuels". Moreso, they want us to think that energy can be acquired homogeneously. They both fund the nuclear bro idiots that want a 100% nuclear grid (ludicrous notion) as well as the renewable bros that think solar + batteries are going to work well in major cities that have weeks with no sun. Neither of these groups are listening to the real scientists working on this shit. These same scientists will even tell you that this is a complicated issue and they may not even know the full answer themselves but are working as a community to solve this. Why? Because climate change is the most complicated threat humans have ever faced and unfortunately no singular person has enough expertise to answer half these questions accurately (though can have relatively good accuracy). The honest to god truth is that while we have our stupid uninformed quibbling online we aren't actively building out zero carbon solutions and the fossil fuel industry not only continues but grows because our energy needs also do. The honest to god truth is that the scientific community generally just says "let's just not take nuclear off the table. We'll use renewables where they best fit and nuclear is a good option if/when there are gaps to fill." While we quibble the threat grows[1] and the cost to turn back balloons.

[0] https://environmentalprogress.org/the-war-on-nuclear

[1] There have been grounds made and we're not actually on the "business as usual" trajectory, but we are still not building nearly fast enough. Carbon neutral isn't enough, we need to be carbon negative. A much tougher goal. The truth here is that even to reach net zero we're going to have to learn how to scrub chemicals from the atmosphere and oceans. Emissions are far more than vehicles and energy, and many of these are more difficult to decarbonize.

Yeah, if the fission industry wants to be taken seriously they need to hire assassins to murder Shellenberger in his sleep. I have some sympathy for the scientific and technical justifications for fission, but I have some doubts about the economics and whether capitalist private utilities can be trusted to operate the reactors. I have zero doubts that Shellenberger is a mendacious tool of the fossil fuel industry who will say or do literally anything that will lead to a repeat appearance on Fox News. Therefore with him on the side of fission I am firmly 100% against it.

The fact that the most publicly visible spokesperson for nuclear energy is regularly on Fox News saying that Climate Change isn't a big deal, is mind blowing to me. That's like it's number one selling point, and their salesman is pretending it's not real.

This is definitely the reddit or twitter style take I would expect from someone outside the industry.

I worked in the industry for about a decade on nuclear, solar, wind, coal, and natural gas. I mostly worked in capacity planning and did some light industrial engineering.

There is not some massive split between 'Big fossil fuel' and 'big renewable'. Most of the generators are diversified in a blend of all different types of power plants. It's ridiculous to advance these conspiracy theories about companies running marketting campaigns against themselves.

This claim that every statement about nuclear power is some 'industry shill' narrative is really ignorant and misinformed. Then there is the lines-on-the-corkboard about what organizations they belong to... trying to infer that this is some sort of nefarious pysop.. when in reality most people in the industry are part of organizations that span every power source.

I did alot of work with SCE and Nextera which are both incredibly diversified and have a variety of power plants.

Even the infamous Duke (typically considered heavy on fossil fuels) has plenty of renewable and nuclear generation.

There is also a complete lack of knowledge about base load versus peak load, and other aspects of power generation in the thread below. The commenter in the thread claiming that 'Renewables are ALWAYS cheaper' is not correct and is running an interesting theory that energy companies want to create pollution so badly that they will throw away potential profits and lose money.

This entire discussion is pretty much the peak of software engineers who can't tell the difference between a crescent and a ratchet weighing in expertise about an industrial field they do not comprehend.

She also had a recent piece out on The Free Press (formerly the Common Sense substack)

https://www.thefp.com/p/climate-activism-has-a-cult-problem

TLDR: She writes about her time in Extinction Rebellion as a media guru and highlights some issues the group has with it's 'eccentric' founder.

That article came out 18 days ago. So there seems to be something of a media coordination going on.

Nuclear is dead - in the US anyway. Nuclear never made sense in the US. We aren't the kind of society that can make rational, scientific, economic decisions. Nuclear REQUIRES success at that. No pro-nuclear arguments are going to change those societal facts on the ground. Nor is their any reason to try - because nuclear is dead.

This was an awesome article. It makes me feel better. I feel like I have generalized anxiety about nuclear waste existing out there, and this quelled it.

yeah, i agree - what a great feel good article. light on any hard facts, but makes that up with feel good stuff. right what people needed to bolster their existing opinion of "nuclear energy = good"

Nuclear energy should be orthogonal to meeting future energy demand and transitioning to a zero carbon generating economy. While it takes a long time for a nuclear plant to come online and become fully efficient. It's better than sitting on our asses and breathing in the toxic waste generated by fossil fuels.

Additionally, with the recent revelations in fusion, https://www.energy.gov/articles/doe-national-laboratory-make..., nuclear will be able to provide us with more runway as mankind continues to march forward towards a cleaner future.

Excellent post and very informative. Nuclear power production is the only way forward if we want to have a chance of not completely destroying our environment. Let’s hope that nuclear fusion will become mainstream sooner than later.

Thank you. I believe all environmentalists need to curb their fear and absorb a healthy dose of science. It would limit the outpouring of outrageous, fear-mongering statements to leave some room for serious adult discussions on how to tackle the energy problems we face as a species.

I think it’s condescending to claim that environmentalists are guided mainly by emotions and people who share your view are guided by science. The problems surrounding nuclear waste is not as clear cut as the article suggests.

The fact that you feel personally attacked by my statement suggests that your beliefs are well, beliefs, and not necessarily grounded in fact.

I recommend you read "The Wizard and The Prophet" as it chronicles the dawn of the environmentalist movement in an engaging and insightful way. That environmentalism was largely funded by wealthy folks, most of whom had only a rudimentary understanding of science, should be a clue towards how much science factors into those discussions.

This is a bogus argument. If want to discuss the relative level of science in current beliefs about, say, nuclear waste, then go ahead and do so. But please do not impugne current "environmentalists" (a group which, as far as this topic goes, includes a number of "actual scientists") with your claims about the origins of the environmental movement.

As for those claims, the environmental movement in the USA is generally dated back to the publication of Rachel Carson's "Silent Spring", and in its early years was not really funded by anyone at all. In addition, most things are largely funded by wealthy folks, so this observation is largely content free.

But it's also not like every scientist (vs environmentalist, can't we just stop with stupid generalization and classification like that?) would be in full support of going on with nuclear as civil power source, and there is also more than pure science to consider.

Stuff fails (from waste disposal processes to planes falling out of the sky) not because we have not understood the science or almost perfect processes established, but for many various reasons?

I think it's also unfair to claim poster before as feeling attacked, and then giving statement about his beliefs, which you don't know. So could do the same thing here?

Those grounded facts extrapolated to the complex practical reality is again itself just belief, and could do the same here then...

Consider that your emotional desire to feel smug and contrarian are being quite effectively manipulated by the wealthy industries funding the people whose ideas you’re repeating.

Environmentalism has a long history of scientists sounding alarms which turned out to be accurate, and your uninformed assertion otherwise is doing your credibility no service here.

No, that’s not it, sorry. The line of argument which boils down to „my side is guided by logic and facts, while your side is guided by emotion and fear“ makes the one who invokes it (ironically) vulnerable to missing valuable facts that might otherwise enrich or even challenge their mental model of the discussion at hand.

Note that this is a meta discussion which comments on how you were presenting your thoughts.

Environmental activism is riddled with irrational emotional appeals that don't align with objective reality.

One can make an argument that this is necessary to get the majority of people to care about the intractable hyperobject that is climate change, but I think it very clearly deserves condescension and ridicule when it becomes clear that these emotional appeals from environmental activists have been accidentally fighting legitimate possible solutions (nuclear) which has indirectly helped the fossil fuel industry that they're supposed to hate.

The condescension is deserved. The green movement has done more harm than help to clean energy by blocking nuclear power trying to push energy sources that were not economically viable. This was mainly due to emotional backlash against nuclear energy.

Condescension is never "deserved", you just decided to apply it.

Wrong, condescension is a social tool to discourage an unwanted behavior. Accepting the negative behavior encourages others to do the same thing.

Condescension is actually rude, and for that reason not a smart way to persuade people you're right. It gets you upvotes on Twaddle or whatever, but only from people who already agree with you.

Yes, it is rude. That's the point. It's not to convince people that already have their minds made up. It's to convince people that don't have their minds made up. They see they will be treated rudely if they adopt whatever the unwanted behavior is.

You seem to be advocating bullying. I stand against that.

Well, the nuclear folks need a healthy dose of economics, because nuclear is not price competitive with current solar/wind, and those generation modes are still improving 10-20% per year on LCOE.

So even if some super good nuclear reactor design was finalized, proposed, funded, and constructed on a wide basis, we're looking at, what, 10 years?

10 years of solar/wind likely improving at LEAST 5-10% per year. Compounded. Meanwhile, the nuclear industry almost always blows the budget, and if there's one thing modern America hasn't fixed its government budgets from being boondoggled.

I'm a pro-nuclear person, I believe that price-matured wind/solar can be competed with using a future reactor design, hopefully one that is scalable, meltdown proof, uses all the fuel/no waste, can breed from thorium, nonfissile uranium, or long-term nuclear waste, AKA a LFTR/MSR, although I admit those have real challenges.

We should probably keep existing nuclear functioning as load leveling on the grid, and continue aggressive funding of research/development of test reactors. But there really isn't a price competitive design in nuclear out there.

And fusion? Pfft. Even if they can sustain a reaction, I highly doubt they'll even get to fission LCOE costs, and fusion isn't as clean as people think, those fast neutrons degrade/irradiate the confinement equipment.

I like how he says there is no radiation leaking out of those dry casks.

That sounds like obvious nonsense to me. There’s radiation, it’s just not significant.

It’s like saying an x-ray has no radiation when you compare it to a CT scan.

I think you're technically correct, but there are a lot of other sources of radiation in our daily lives. I don't know how much radiation leaks out, but if it's similar to naturally occurring sources, I think it's fair to say there is no radiation leaking.

There's more radioactivity in coal fired plant emissions gases than is coming from a storage cask.

For that matter, you are emitting some radiation right now from radioactive potassium in your body. Everyone is.

Sure, and never ever would a company cut costs to raise profit and ignore safety standards.

Just visit Asse in Germany and hug some of the rotting barrels with nuclear waste.

The problem isn't technology but greed and stupidity.

I wonder how much The Simpsons contributed to nuclear fear.

No, but seriously, I only have one criticism. What about all the rest of the world? The developed world and the big developing countries might be trusted with nuclear fission, but there are still a whole bunch of countries who cannot be. So in some sense this debate is stupid. Deploy nuclear were it makes sense, but there are definitely places where renewables are their only green option. Luckily lots of those places have plenty of sun and wind.

I learned that Core Temperatures must be checked, and that Venting Gas Prevents Explosion

Electricity can be delivered over thousands of miles with the right wires in place, so there's no need to spread reactors everywhere, especially considering we need relatively few nuclear power plants to meet everyone's energy needs.

This comment, and a few of its siblings, kind of smell like: "Look, I'm not racist, but can we trust these guys with this technology?" Some of them can read, you know. Event count.

Why prefer a technology that needs such trust in the first place?

Hell - we don't even trust Russia with reactors in Ukraine right now, why should we have any sort of realistic trust for places that are less stable?

Especially when we actually have alternative green energy at this point.

Say what you will about solar, but it doesn't explode and contaminate large areas when bombed or improperly maintained, and you can't get incredibly effective bombs as a side effect of deploying solar.

All that aside - I think solar/wind just out compete nuclear on costs, and that's really the sticking point. And solar at least just keeps getting cheaper. We're really not that far off from a point where excess solar can just be used to create hydrocarbons on demand that can act as base load during off hours and inclement weather.

To compare - solar is down near 3 cents/kwh for utility scale. Nuclear is sitting at ~46 cents/kwh.

So nuclear is 15 times more expensive, and solar costs are STILL GOING DOWN.

Residential solar installs do better than nuclear (7 to 8 cents/kwh) - by a factor of SIX!

Frankly - I'd really rather push the solar button as hard as possible and continue experimenting with base load providers. who knows - We may actually get fusion (definitely feels closer than it used to) and then fission becomes a military only affair.

And while I'm certainly not opposed to the creation of nuclear in a lot of places - I think the tech has a lot of downsides (again - not the least of which is cost) that really cripple it.

Long comment short - If I have to pick between coal and nuclear... sign me up for nuclear. If I have to pick between nuclear and solar... I'm hitting the solar button as fast and hard as possible.

Probably none? Nothing "bad" ever happens in a Simpsons episode, especially around nuclear materials.

Mutated fish was one at least.

Re: nuclear waste, I'm sure there is a perfect way to handle it. But look up "Asse" for how it works in the real world. Also look up how long Germany has been searching for a final burial ground.

I'm confident if we made the author an absolutist ruler he would find a way that's better than what we have. We just have this nasty thing called democracy, and citizens' initiatives and huge protests and so on.

And that's the real world we're living in, not some imaginative fantasy land.

Nice to see you didn't actually read the article. It's written by a woman, by the way.

„because of the nuclear industry’s high safety standards they are treated with rigorous caution“

That seem right out of the marketing brochure of the nuclear industry.

See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_and_radiation_accident...

While nuclear power can give us the most bang for the buck, it's main flaw has to do with the degree of centralization it requires. It takes the infrastructure of an advanced civilization to not only design, build, and maintain the facilities and equipment, it also requires the educational infrastructure to produce the personnel needed to operate them safely. This means that it requires a degree of centralization, and the centralization of political and economic power to go with it. Futhermore, it also requires the grid needed to transmit the power have to take in demand surges into account.

Perhaps the miniaturization efforts for nuclear power would mean a neighorhood, or even a site-level nuclear power. At this point, though, solar allows community-scale or site-scale deployments (but not necessarily community-scale manufacturing). Micro-grids, sized to the local demand surge can be deployed.

Isn't this a case where efficiency through centralization is a huge win for the environment?

Centralization is not necessarily a win. There are other concerns besides efficiency -- such as resiliency.

The efficiency gains we had with JIT global supply chain failing during the pandemic lockdowns is a great example.

There are worst problems than just resiliency. As an example, overharvesting happens when the people consuming a resource is disconnected from those who harvest it. Traditionally, local harvesters were also the consumers, and there is immediate feedback on the limits of a harvest.

It's made worse when we have been under a couple centuries of a civilization founded on the presumption that we have continuous, and unbounded growth.

> Less than 1% is radioactive for 10,000 years. This portion can be easily isolated and shielded

How would this work? My assumption was that the pellets are fairly homogeneous. Does the decay happen faster in exterior of the pellet? Or is there some process to concentrate the radiation?

I am wondering the same question. I suppose if the decay is totally random throughout any given volume of uranium, then separating it out would have to be chemical or electromagnetic or something?

The pellets are homogeneous. The reprocessing of fuel involves melting or dissolving them and chemically separating out the waste products, with the remaining unused fuel going back into new pellets.

The waste products are spread throughout the fuel pellets evenly, so the pellets have to be deconstructed to remove them.

Last summer, on vacation, I stumbled upon some nuclear waste. I went looking for a visitor's center, but missed it and drove further up the road.

https://goo.gl/maps/8C8uXWXcBxXGjz5Q7

I pulled off the road across the river (Readsboro Rd) to turn around, and low and behold, I was looking straight across the dam at the waste. I always assumed the site would be bigger.)

In hindsight I wish I took a picture with my whole family.

Ironically, the waste has been there almost as long as the plant operated: https://decommissioningcollaborative.org/yankee-rowe/

Imagine global upheavals happening, such as a third world war, or a global plague, or a comet impact that resembles an apocalypse. Events that result in a loss of all or part of public control over these wastes.

What happens, then, if at some point in the centuries after, someone opens such a barrel containing the waste? A Goiânia [1], but no one will be there to clean up. Unsuspecting people will spread the radiation across the world.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Goi%C3%A2nia_accident

I wish nuclear power was more widespread in the USA then solar power. In Colorado we get our 67% of our power from Coal and Natural Gas the rest from renewables like wind (26%), solar, hydro and biomass...

The really cool thing about nuclear is that the plant can dial up production of power based on demand. In the summer they can rapidly scale up demand to allow people to cool their houses.

Nuclear is really the environmentally friendly choice. Wind turbines at end of life aren't recyclable nor are solar panels

The author says the waste isn't liquid, but also says that spent fuel rods are cooled in pools for several years. Does the water not become irradiated in that time?

Does your cup of water become irradiated from having a hot spoon stuck in it?

I think the water is mostly safe. At worst the water will have little slivers of radioactive material floating in it but that’s only if something already went wrong, so I imagine it’s cleaned before being discharged.

Ultimately you can also cool it down and reuse it, so you might not need all that much water relatively speaking.

My hot spoon isn't made up of uranium and didn't come out of a nuclear reactor, and isn't radioactive, so I'm not sure how that addresses GP's concerns.

Your hot spoon is in fact radioactive, emitting thermal radiation. Thermal radiation doesn't make things it hits radioactive. Neither does your microwave oven or even gamma radiation. Radioactivity can be induced in things by neutron radiation, but not EM radiation. It is safe to eat food which has been irradiated with gamma radiation, and chances are you have many times before (it is fairly common for dried spices and herbs to be irradiated for preservation purposes.)

Things that emit thermal radiation are not radioactive. An easy way to conceptualize it for stuff here on Earth is that radioactivity involves stuff flying out of the nucleus of an atom, while other forms of radiation do not.

Thermal radiation is in fact emitted from the nucleus of atoms; all matter emits black body radiation. The reason hot things generally aren't considered radioactive is because that would pull literally all matter into the discussion.

But that wasn't the point being made here. The point being made with the hot spoon example is that EM radiation doesn't make other things radioactive (except insofar as it heats things up). This is equally true of gamma radiation as thermal radiation. Thermal radiation and gamma radiation can both cause harm directly, but neither will make other things radioactive.

That's why it's completely safe to eat food that was sterilized with gamma radiation intense enough to kill you outright.

I think you may be confused about the distinction between radioactivity and black body radiation. The fact that gamma rays, microwaves, visible light and so on are all on a spectrum doesn't mean that every EM emitter is radioactive.

Whether or not you want to apply the term "radioactive" to a black body emitter is completely beside the point, which is that EM radiation doesn't make things radioactive. Your objection is to the use of a word, not the physics, so I think this discussion has run its course.

At high enough photon energy, electromagnetic radiation actually can make things radioactive. The general term is "photonuclear reactions."

Here's an example:

"Photonuclear production of medical isotopes 62,64Cu using intense laser-plasma electron source"

https://aip.scitation.org/doi/10.1063/1.5100925

> so I imagine it’s cleaned before being discharged.

There's plutonium dust in the silt under the Irish Sea, off the coast from Sellafield. Inhaling a single particle of plutonium dust (much smaller than a 'sliver') can kill you. I think your imagination has misled you.

Just because it’s ‘cleaned’ doesn’t mean it’s perfectly clean after doing so.

You need a high intensity neutron flux to make water radioactive, which spent fuel doesn't provide. The kinds of radiation you find in a cooling pond won't activate water, so all you have to worry about is stuff potentially dissolving into it.

Here's a paper on how water gets activated when it cools a nuclear core (which does have massive numbers of neutrons zipping around): https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pnucene.2019.103042

Answered here:

https://www.quora.com/Does-water-become-radioactive-after-be...

The water does not become irradiated: https://physics.stackexchange.com/questions/101433/why-doesn...

There are two main ways that something may become radioactive, being contaminated with little pieces of something radioactive (for instance nuclear fallout), or through neutron activation, in which neutron radiation creates radioactive isotopes in whatever it hits.

Assuming the fuel rods have intact cladding, then the first shouldn't be happening in a cooling pond. However the fuel rods do give off neutron radiation, and a small amount of the hydrogen in the water is turned into tritium by that neutron radiation. Tritium is a weak beta emitter, it could harm you if you drank a lot of it. But it's not a long-term problem because it has a half life of 12 years.

The term you are looking for is "neutron activation". Irradiation alone doesn't make things radioactive, they have to capture fast neutrons specifically in order to be transmuted into unstable isotopes. Hydrogen and Oxygen are less susceptible to this than heavier elements which is why it is so hard to make heavy water. It does happen inside running nuclear reactors but spent fuel doesn't give off enough neutrons for it to be an issue.

People protest nuclear power because they do not trust the for-profit energy industry to handle waste properly. They expect the power companies to cut costs and process the waste in a slipshod measure that risks exposure to the environment and public.

It's not about green goo leaking into the environment. It's about human failures and flaws in the system we set up.

Solar and wind are cheap. Focus on a renewables-only solution.

There's a lot of misinformation about nuclear energy. I used to tell people that a quick way to get kicked out of the nuclear program in the U.S. Navy was to accidently forget to take off your thermoluminescent dosimeter (TLD) before boarding an airplane. The Navy uses TLDs to track radiation exposure of sailors and has a strict program in place for managing it. Turns out, hopping on an airplane is the quickest way to exceed your annual exposure limit.

It helped people understand the safety protocols we have in place and that it's not this big scary thing waiting to give you cancer at any moment. Of course, it _is_ dangerous when handled incorrectly, but it's not the doomsday thing the media tends to make it.

Insurance companies didn‘t change their mind about nuclear power. Without the guarantee that in case of an accident the government (and so all tax payers) will cover the costs, no nuclear power plant would ever have been built. This is a huge subsidy to the nuclear industry. No other industry has this or needs this.

I’ve said this before and I’ll say it again. Until the Price-Anderson Nuclear Industries Indemnity Act gets repealed, the nuclear industry can take a hike.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Price%E2%80%93Anderson_Nucle...

> constructed in the United States before 2026

Looks like it's going to expire soon anyway.

It will be very interesting to see how hard the industry will lobby to have it renewed.

Look here’s what you want to consider. The waste needs to be stored safely and responsibly for not a decade, not a century but for thousands of years.

We can’t manage shit that needs a few years of care unless it continues to make profits right now. It’s a fucking joke.

So your local government is recommending a nuclear waste dump, as mine is.

Here’s basic maths to know if your getting screwed or if they’ll be doing all the coolest activities shown in the nice diagrams with big solid containers and a scientists in lab coats monitoring for issues for eternity. People will definitely be there working and maintaining 50 and 500 and 5,000 years after the initial political announcement, right?

Anything needing maintenance for decades either needs to be politically important, like government spending on educational institutions or hospitals. What’s that you say? Your hospital buildings are decaying. Oh umm let’s chat further.

Ok so back to the maths. This thing needs its own stewardship funding.

Let’s say it costs a mere $20million a year to maintain. To be honest I don’t know the cost, insert X. So what your going to want is a simple endowment, setup in a nice 10,000 year organisation that’s free from corruption, that’ll reliably generate your needed $20M in funds a year. What’s that, the government haven’t announced support for a new corruption free, science institute that is funded upfront to run for eternity? I sure you just missed it.

So your looking for an endowment that will reliable generate your $20M a year, or whatever figure, ongoingly, forever. Luckily this can be achieved, you just need to think of this like the interest to be earned from a big term deposit.

With say a need for a say 2% guaranteed yield, nice and conservative, you’ll need around $1 Billion to be setup in a waste stewardship endowment institute thing.

And here’s where you can expose all the BS. I’ve seen no announcements for anything close to these funds, for these types of facilities. All that seems to be budgeted for is intial job creation construction as well as a couple of political cycles of funding.

These are mud map numbers, but hopefully they illustrate the grift involved in most of these initiatives when they are not taking straight on long long long term stewardship and how that’ll be funded 50, 500, 5000 years from now. Hell we can’t even think in those sort of long timeframes.

> Look here’s what you want to consider. The waste needs to be stored safely and responsibly for not a decade, not a century but for thousands of years.

I find that people making this argument always always fail to engage with at least three important considerations.

1) As a consequence of how physics works, the more dangerous a radioisotope, the shorter the period for which it is dangerous. The most radioactive substances decay in years or decades, not millennia. Anti-nuclear activists routinely engage in a form of equivocation in which they juxtapose dangerous but short lived substances (e.g. Strontium-90 has a half life of a few decades) with long-lived but low-danger substances like Uranium (with a half life of billions of years), pretending that every form of radioactive waste is as dangerous as the most dangerous form for as long as the longest-lived form survives.

2) Anti-nuclear activists routinely ignore the possibility of reprocessing nuclear waste into more nuclear fuel. They pretend that our only option is to store this fuel indefinitely. They also use this epistemic void where reprocessing should be to argue that we don't have enough nuclear fuel on Earth to sustain civilization. We do, and we do by several orders of magnitude if we remember that nuclear "waste" can be turned into new fuel.

3) Anti-nuclear activists routinely ignore how modern civilization produces non-nuclear waste products that prompt similar concerns over waste safety. (See, for example, the famous Love Canal incident.) By fixating on nuclear waste and ignoring other industrial byproducts that are at least equally as harmful, anti-nuclear activists reveal themselves as being motivated by some kind of emotional or ideological opposition to "the atom" in particular instead of, as they claim, an altruistic concern for the safety of humanity in general.

All in all, these people are Luddites, and they've set back the progress of carbon free energy by almost a century. We need to ignore people afraid of nuclear power in the same way that we ignore people who worry in public about the power of witches and Mercury in retrograde.

> The most radioactive substances decay in years or decades, not millennia.

s/decay in/have half-lives of/

Some of the stuff made in a nuke is not made by any other earthbound process, and even a tiny amount of it is dangerous. Plutonium has a half-life around 20,000 years. At a stretch, European civilization is 10,000 years old (and we generally struggle to read texts that old - when they exist at all).

> Anti-nuclear activists routinely ignore the possibility of reprocessing nuclear waste into more nuclear fuel.

Quite the contrary; they oppose it. Windscale/Sellafield has been the target of protests for decades. The problem is, to extract and concentrate the stuff you want to output, you create a greatly increased volume of stuff that you don't want/can't sell.

Good news if you haven't heard it, due to tech from the fracking industry the nuclear waste problem is solved: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deep_borehole_disposal

I doubt the safety of fracking. This sounds even more dangerous than the alternatives; if something goes wrong, how can it be fixed, being so deep underground? Yucca Mountain always sounded like the best plan.

If something goes wrong it's so deep in the earth that it doesn't matter.

Is nuclear demonization just political attempts to destabilize the west and prevent us from prosperity that comes from cheap clean energy?

Why are US politicians not allowing building more nuclear and driving prices down?

Are the democrats or the republicans pro-nuclear? I will vote for whoever is more pro nuclear.

>Is nuclear demonization just political attempts to destabilize the west and prevent us from prosperity that comes from cheap clean energy?

The anti-nuclear movement in Western Europe was funded and trained by the Soviet Union.

However I doubt that is the reason the US failed to embrace nuclear energy. The problem in the US is that the fossil fuel industry is employing more people and paying more to lobbyists than the nuclear energy industry.

Once waste has made it to dry cask storage, it's not much of a problem. But there are still too many spent fuel rods in cooling pools at power stations. That stuff was supposed to go to Yucca Mountain, but for political reasons, that didn't happen.

Until it explodes because it was filled with organic instead of clay kitty litter and costs $500 million to 2 billion and two years to clean up (this happened at WIPP in 2014)

https://theecologist.org/2016/sep/20/wipp-nuclear-waste-acci...

It seems that nobody can safely deal with nuclear material cost effectively.

From the article:

Worse still, mismanagement of the clean-up has involved poor safety practices. Last year, the DOE's Independent Office of Enterprise Assessments released a report that found that WIPP clean-up operations were being rushed to meet the scheduled reopening date and that this pressure was contributing to poor safety practices.

The report states: "The EA analysis considered operational events and reviews conducted during May 2014 through May 2015 and identified a significant negative trend in performance of work. During this period, strong and unrealistic schedule pressures on the workforce contributed to poor safety performance and incidents during that time are indicators of the potential for a future serious safety incident."

The report points to "serious issues in conduct of operations, job hazard analysis, and safety basis." Specific problems identified in the report include:

workers incorrectly changing filters resulting in five safety violations;

waste oil left underground for an extended period despite a renewed emphasis on combustible load reduction;

fire water lines inadequately protected against freezing;

inadequate processes leading a small fire underground, followed by the failure of workers and their supervisor to report the fire;

an operator improperly leaving a trainee to operate a waste hoist, the hoist being improperly used, tripping a safety relay and shutting down the hoist for hours;

an engineer violating two safety postings to remove a waste hoist safety guard;

workers removing a grating to an underground tank and not posting a barricade, causing a fall hazard;

a backlog of hundreds of preventive maintenance items; and

failing to properly track overtime such that "personnel may be working past the point of safety".

No, Yucca mountain (burial site) was mostly for non fuel waste, scientific, and weapons waste. The spent fuel rods were supposed to be moved to above ground storage at the same site until they could be reprocessed or became inert.

Most waste in cooling pools is there to cool, not for storage.. if it is able be moved, then it is moved to a cask.

For a (feels like) more balanced view: https://backreaction.blogspot.com/2022/04/is-nuclear-power-g...

I don’t think nuclear is evil, but Rosie’s look at the financials suggests there are better options: https://youtu.be/quI_8xYSWYE

Disclaimer: I did not watch the video linked.

For what it's worth, I do agree, but I think we'll probably need to have (subsidized) nuclear as part of the solution anyways, especially in places where we don't have ample room for wind/solar/battery storage.

It would be irononic for the government to subsidize something that they've significantly contributed to increasing the cost of.

A huge amount of the cost increases are there to make it actually safe.

Windscale could have been cheaper, but some jerk called Cockfort insisted on additional filters just in case -- oh wait, that "Cockfort's folly" turned what could have been a horrifying accident into a merely bad one.

Chernobyl was cheap, but it didn't have a containment building. Modern nuclear is safer, but that cost more money. Nuclear needs emergency cooling to be safe, which costs more money. It needs redundancy, which costs more. And so on.

So what is it exactly what you think needs cutting?

Honestly, given the trajectory of nuclear costs compare to battery costs - it's going to make far more sense to build power lines to places that don't have renewable potential.

I get what you're saying, but consider a place like Japan. That strategy is probably not viable everywhere.

It'll be interesting to see how everything develops but Japan has an absurd amount of offshore wind potential. Their country is set up perfectly to take advantage of it given their major cities are all up and down the coast, they're also ~100 miles from mainland Korea which has plenty of wind and solar potential as well.

There are geopolitical concerns to relying on your neighbors for energy transmission, but it's hard to think of any technical or financial reasons that would stop it. Given current learning rates and cost trends, utility solar will likely be under $0.01/kwh in just about every place on earth. Certainly within 15 years, likely within 10. When new-build nuclear is above $0.10/kwh and takes a decade to build, the delta buys you a ton of storage.

I agree that it'll be interesting to see. A primarily-wind Japan would be cool if it could be done, and it seems like a win/win.

I wonder if it still makes sense to keep nuclear energy around in the mix as a sort of backup, though. We've already got a ton of plants that could probably last more decades with proper maintenance to my understanding, and despite making up a small number of energy production facilities they make up a huge mix of the energy in the world, so it seems like it could be a solid backup plan in a primarily wind and solar world.

Oh yeah, existing plants can be operated at very low cost -- if they're sited in safe locations, and certified / refurbished for extended use beyond their design life, it definitely makes sense to keep them running for as long as possible. If Japan overbuilds their wind resources while maintaining their nuclear fleet, they could send the nuclear electrons the other direction and power Korea with nuclear.

Her analysis is fundamentally flawed. For a stable energy source, it cannot be solar alone or wind alone. Rather it needs to be solar plus battery and wind plus battery. Let's factor in the costs of producing maintaining and environmentally disposing of those batteries and let's see how the numbers shake out, ceteris paribus of course.

Interesting point. One other very important point is what those batteries will be made of. Using lithium is really only necessary for batteries that move with the devices they power, because it's so light. For stationary energy storage, lithium is overkill and you may be able to use heavier storage solutions (sodium instead of lithium, sand batteries storing thermal energy, etc.) for installations.

There's also still the real possibility that we develop suitable supercapacitors with graphene or other extremely cheap materials. I don't know what the process is for recycling graphene but considering it's pure carbon I doubt it will be much trouble. I know supercapacitors are not batteries but the advancements in one can definitely help cross-pollinate advancements in the other.

Unfortunately nuclear doesn't appear to be a viable supplement.

Suppose a grid with just nuclear and solar. Nuclear may be overall very stable, but solar is still not, and so you still need storage. The only difference is how much of it you need.

But nuclear has a terrible problem: it's not really economical. Solar is much, much cheaper and therefore any economically minded person would build solar if they had a choice, and would just not enter the business space at all if they couldn't.

The business model of nuclear is just broken in modern times. The idea was that nuclear is cheap but unwieldy, and can be supplemented with small amounts of more flexible but more expensive sources for when it can't adjust fast enough. But that just hasn't panned out.

> But nuclear has a terrible problem: it's not really economical.

Against what honest option? If fossil fuel plants had to charge to cover the deaths from pollution they'd be blistering expensive.

It could just as easily be said that nuclear power is the only source we can truly afford.

> The business model of nuclear is just broken in modern times.

Right, because it's not really a business. Power is infrastructure.

> Against what honest option? If fossil fuel plants had to charge to cover the deaths from pollution they'd be blistering expensive.

Solar, wind, natural gas, geothermal, thermal solar, hydro.

> Right, because it's not really a business. Power is infrastructure.

An infrastructure that underlies way too many things. Say we subsidize nuclear with taxes. But everyone uses electricity. So what does it matter whether the nuclear plant gets $50 from me from my power bill, or $50 I have paid in taxes?

In the end, it has to be paid for, and that means that if you go with an expensive power source people and industries will have a reason to move somewhere cheaper.

> if you go with an expensive power source people and industries will have a reason to move somewhere cheaper.

The other options aren't cheaper, you just aren't being sued for the damages they caused (yet).

Creation and decommissioning of solar and wind are quite polluting, natgas is a byproduct of the dirtier fossil fuels, and geothermal and hydro are only practical in a limited number of areas.

> So what does it matter whether the nuclear plant gets $50 from me from my power bill ...?

Because treating dirty power production as just a business, like a muffin shop, isn't appropriate for society. We're making poor decisions for the group because we make them individually, buying dangerous gasoline today rather than saving to build clean power.

If you want the cheapest power, then burn lots of coal and don't hold power plants accountable for their emissions. Do you really want the cheapest power?

> If you want the cheapest power, then burn lots of coal and don't hold power plants accountable for their emissions.

That's not the cheapest, because the price for the emissions gets paid (whether or not we choose to account for it).

The cheapest is the source of new power capacity that provides the lowest total levelized cost - including its externalities - at a given level of reliability (firmness). Right now, that's a race between renewables+storage and combined cycle natural gas.

What I want doesn't really matter. What I'm saying is that solutions must be possible to implement.

So say somehow I've got $10 billion burning a hole in my pocket. Would I build nuclear with that? No, it'd be stupid, because chances are high I would never see a profit.

So I would build solar. It's not reliable and troublesome for the grid? Well, not my problem to solve, I'm merely a power provider, balancing the grid isn't my responsibility.

Ok, say there's a really well intentioned politician, will they use lots of tax money to build nuclear? But why would they? In modern countries such things are achieved by consensus, which means one person can hardly take credit for it, and they may never see it actually start operating during their term.

A political party then? Power tends to switch back and forth, and the next power in party is fairly likely to sabotage their predecessors legacy. Since the plants take a long time to build the chances are slim for a party in favor to see the benefits.

At what price difference does this become a non-issue? I.e. if wind and solar are 10x cheaper than nuclear, can we have a stable grid by overprovisioning like crazy and building distributed networks, coupled with limited storage in the form of pumped hydro and batteries?

It doesn't matter how overprovisioned your solar field is at night.

Hydro is an excellent pseudobattery but it's not available everywhere.

Or solar plus CAES. Or pumped hydro. Plus some loads can be shifted.

Batteries aren't the only way to store energy. Here's a short list of other ways to store energy:

- Pumped hydro: Use electricity now to pump water uphill. When power is needed, water is allowed to flow back downhill, powering a turbine to generate electricity.

- Thermal storage: Heat up water or molten salt. This heat can be used directly later (e.g., use hot water for showers) or to power steam turbines to generate electricity

- Flywheels: spin up a heavy wheel, which can "smooth" out power delivery when inputs briefly shut off

- Compressed air: can be stored / used to power turbines to generate electricity later

- Fuel generation: can use electricity during high-production times to generate fuels like hydrogen (electrolysis ) or methane (reverse methanogenesis).

None of these are silver-bullets. But if used intelligently for specific problems, they're excellent tools to help cover the volatile output of wind/solar.

I love the idea of flywheels as storage. The failure modes would be outrageous, giant discs rolling at high speeds hundreds of miles across the landscape. Or exploding into huge smooth faced fragments and strewn for miles around leaving deep craters. Relatively benign compared to fiery or radioactive explosions, it would be almost funny to get killed by one.

The test video for storage canisters does not disappoint: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bu1YFshFuI4

Call me chicken little but my beef with nuclear has always been about the people not the science. If we paint the Earth with reactors it’s a statistical likelihood that through corruption or incompetence someone will screw up. We can’t even keep 50 year old bridges from collapsing in the U.S and meanwhile every time a republican gets into office they bleed FEMA and the EPA dry. We currently have 55 power plants total but would need about 100x that to even put a dent in our electricity bill. Who’s going to build them? Contractors? How are those F-35s Lockheed made going? Another issue is that there are significant odds that global society is on a path towards collapse or backslide due to climate change. If we entered a period of catabolic collapse and governments around the world no longer had the money or infrastructure to manage the upkeep of these facilities what would happen. You can’t just flip a switch and turn the whole thing off. I’m not someone who thinks the world is going to end in a day but look how quickly things have deteriorated in Pakistan recently. Would governments have plans in place to deal with reactors if their economy suddenly collapsed? Honestly the biggest thing to me though is that nuclear is greedy. We’re trying to find cheat codes to avoid conservation and continue consuming copious amounts of electricity. It would be vastly more cost-effective and far less time consuming to dump all that money into energy reduction measures but that would disrupt capitalism and America’s addiction to endless consumption. Residential energy usage in the U.S is higher than commercial usage. Imagine if we banned cars in cities tomorrow, dumped money into public transit and high speed rail, banned meat, built sustainable urban housing, forced tech companies to do away with planned obsolescence, stopped flying unnecessarily, and so on. We could solve climate change in a decade through conservation but that would destroy the profits of those in power. Nuclear might sound great on paper but it’s the planetary equivalence of taking tums instead of putting down the Costco hotdog.

>If we paint the Earth with reactors

No need. About 5,300 1GW reactors would be enough to supply all electric needs world wide. With renewables added in, the number is even smaller.

Electricity can be sent over wires, too, so there's no need to put reactors everywhere, we can keep them in secure locations if needed.

5,300 (in my opinion) qualifies as painting the Earth. If even one fails we’re talking about centuries or millennial of damage control.

What's more concerning, a corrupt or incompetent government mishandling one ton of nuclear fuel, or the same corrupt/incompetent government mishandling the one million tons of coal that would be needed to replace it? (which by the way, would have approximately the same amount of radioactive potential due to the natural radioactive contaminants that will get concentrated as you use it)

My entire point was that we should strive for neither. We could half per-capita energy consumption in the US and still consume twice as much as Brazil. If everyone in rich countries stopped being greedy we could easily meet global demands with renewables alone.

Halving per-capita energy consumption has an economic cost in terms of reduced production, consumption and thus employment. Which will have a political cost in follow-up elections.

I don't see why we need to stop thinking about improving the environmental friendliness of our energy sources in order to start thinking about reducing overall consumption. And I'm not sure you have really justified why reducing our consumption should even be seen as a good thing given the possibility of more environmentally friendly energy sources.

Did they change their minds about the waste in the pools at Fukushima ?

If those had collapsed (and at one point it looked as if they might), it would have fatally irradiated over 10,000 people.

I changed my mind too. Turns out it's really dangerous.

https://whatisnuclear.com is another great site with information about nuclear energy

Can nuclear waste undergo fusion to turn it back into whatever it was before by using energy from renewables, thereby acting as a form of energy storage?

It's an operation cycle of very specific reactors, if I remember right its a variation of breeder reactors.

Breeders don't reverse the nuclear reactions that take place when a reactor is producing power. They use the neutron flux from those reactions to induce different reactions (involving much less energy per nucleus) in surrounding material that produce fissile isotopes in that material.

Breeder reactors work by having less useful elements capture neutrons and turn into more useful elements.

Capturing all of the fission byproducts and reversing the process is going to be so technically difficult and energy costly that, in this context, it might as well be impossible.

No, that would cost more energy than we extracted from it. However, what we call “spent fuel” isn’t fully used up. It can no longer be used in a normal reactor, but reactors can be build which can continue extracting energy from it. In fact, only about 2% of the usable energy has been extracted from the fuel by the time we start calling it waste. Most of the high–level waste from today’s reactors is really just fuel for reactors that we haven’t built yet, due to over–regulation.

this is fascinating and unexpected. Do you have more literature on this ?

Breeder reactor: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Breeder_reactor Not an expert but from what I read development stopped mainly due to uranium supply being sufficient making expensive further research not worth it. But on the security part using liquid sodium certainly contributed :).

In principle, this might be possible since any reaction can in principle be run in reverse, given a sufficient supply of energy.

In practice, I don't think this would be at all viable, and certainly would not be competitive with other much more straightforward forms of energy storage.

so the half life of uranium 235 is 235,000 years and you have a graph of something with a half life of 300 years...

i am pro nuclear btw

> I also learned that batteries cannot be recycled.

That's straight up misinformation

It depends on what they mean by "cannot". It cannot be recycled today but it can be recycled when facilities are built to do it. The batteries currently in EVs will go to non-transportation uses when it is no longer able to be used in EVs. Then it will need recycling and that is when the recycling facilities will be built and begin recycling batteries.

When not qualified, "cannot" generally means impossible.

I am not a nuclear scientist or a physicist. Here I put forward a layperson argument that I hav e heard or read about. I do believe some are quite valid.

I also think arguments based on "in the future it is safe" because we have brand new safe reactors. People make mistakes. Those are hypotheticals, until new architecture reactors have been running for say 40/50 years

Nuclear energy is not a renewable form of energy.

If we use today's reactors the supply of economically viable uranium extraction is small enough that one should worry about it.

There is plenty of uranium that can be extracted available. From the ocean for one. Presently that si not economically viable, and the environmental impact from large scale uranium extraction from the ocean are unknown but likely to be quite disruptive.

There are designs like Molten Salt that solves the fuel problem since they can use spent uranium from regular reactors as fuel. This extends the availability of uranium fuel to such an extent that we dont have to worry about it.

The biggest problem is what the US conclude in the 60?, 70? that corrosion from salt is a huge problem and a new alloy is needed to safely contain it. Or it will require continuing, probably remote only repair, reinforcement for the reactor to safely operate.

Then there is the problem that no such large scale reactors exist. I think Russia might have a small one.

There are applications in now to build some. I dont know if they have been approved or not.

Given that it would be a new type of reactor, with new issues to be solved, I think we (world) should build one, and let it run for 40 years to learn from it.

Move fast and break things is not a good approach to nuclear reactors.

Pro Nuclear when confronted with the disasters that we know have happened the argument is

a) The new reactors will be a lot safer. Really? They could not have new "bugs" that need to be addressed?

b) Not a lot of people have died from nuclear but so many die for other fuels. This relies on a model of what fossile fuels may cause to happen over time. It is cumulative and not directly attributable. If I stand next to a busy highway near a coal powerplant I will not die from it. If I do so repeatedly over a long enough timescale it will impact my health, so will unhealthily eating, no exercise, smoking. Humans will in general die from combinations of these.

Using the same argument, the other way people are still dying from Fukushima and Chernobyl. No it is not immediate and there are other factors, but occurrences of cancer and other related problems must be measured over a long timescale.

c) In so far as we can make safer nuclear powerplants, we can construct fossile fuel power stations that produce far less harmfull emissions. Exactly what to do with the CO2 and other pollutants is a problem.

c) WAR. We have been hit with a barrage of scenarios that will happen if a Russian missile or such blows up a nuclear powerplant, or several of them. Should we take that into accounts.

d) If it is safe, then there is no reason to curb other sovereign nations from building out nuclear power without being hacked, bombed, and so on.

e) If it is safe, how about getting a house in the middle of the desert and and have it stored in the yard and outhouse. Nobody really wants to do that. Safe storage of civilian spent fuel in Nevada even got stopped. We bury it im the ground and let someone else deal with it. (Which is also true with carbon capture)

f) Spent uranium used as ammunition have shown drastic negative impact of the health of people who live in those areas afterwards. Saying something about the dangers.

f) nuclear plants have so far had reasonably short lives. I think 50 to 80 years. Then you have real estate that cant be reused for other purposes.

Fossile vs Nuclear is a bit like picking your poison. Neither seem like an excellent idea overall.

We also saw big problems in Europe last year, were France had 50% of their nuclear reactors shut off for overdue maintenance.

Sweden shut down one as well.

Leaving a large gap between available energy and needed energy. When combinved with shutting off fossile fuel plants and later on the war in Ukraine which took Russian gas off the table in different ways.

Europe was lucky they could start fossile fuels up again as a fall back.

I do think the French problem with their simulations shut down of so many reactors was an orgy of bad planning rather than a directly attributable to nuclear energy.

It does highlight that the older the plants get, the more effort needs to be put into keeping them safely running.

When discussions like these come up on Internet forums they are usually quickly filled with strong pro-nuclear reactor activists. I find that a bit odd, and to the extent the forum allows it other voices are voted out, or certainly drowned out.

I am not a nuclear scientist or a physicist. Here I put forward a layperson argument that I hav e heard or read about. I do believe some are quite valid.

the fearmongering and all around nuclear is deeply ingrained in the public consciousness. It will be hard to kill it. Sadly. There are all sorts of designs that are awesome but havent been put to wide use because its insanely expensive to even get permits for a nuclear plant (if it is even possible) not to mention the insane costs to actual build one. Economies of scale never took hold due to a couple of incidents (of OLD designs and OLD installations for the most part) being flung everywhere. And then you'd have prominent scientists, even, getting vocal about being against nuclear. For whatever fucking reason.

Irks the hell out of me.

Say what you will, but I don't think you'll ever get economies of scale in nuclear like you will with solar (or even wind). You can certainly get some economies of scale, but those cost benefits are almost always a function of number of units produced.

Nuclear just doesn't need that many units produced - so it will never get the same functional benefit.

Unless you're planning on going down to Asimov-esque wearable reactors (and I don't realistically think you are) nuclear just doesn't make enough units to really get the same benefits from scale.

Solar on the other hand... each unit is producing 100watts of power, and you're making a literal shit load of units. Production numbers are very high, and it benefits enormously from economies of scale.

Basically - even the smallest reactor designs we're talking about for nuclear are in the 20mw range/unit.

Solar is 100-300w/unit. (watts - not megawatts). We're making nearly 70 THOUSAND units of solar for every unit of nuclear, at nuclear's smallest size.

The economies of scale for nuclear require far fewer units to have a benefit compared to something like solar panels. Because you aren't building 100s of 1000s of them like you need with solar panels.

Just building two identical plants at the same time creates a huge cost savings.

The main problem is that nuclear is too expensive. You make a commitment that lats for centuries, which makes the actual cost of the energy way more expensive than most anything else. Our children for generations will have to pay for the "cheap" energy we consume today. This has been proven several times now, most nuclear operators in the world have been bailed out by taxpayers at least once, one way or another.

Separately from that there is the undeniable risk of catastrophic failure laying waste to very large areas of land for centuries. The reactor design is not the main reason for this risk, humans are. No matter how amazing the reactor is, as long as it produces waste it's unsafe during a war, for example. We've not had a century without war yet.

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