AI Joins Hunt for ET: Study Finds 8 Potential Alien Signals
blogs.nvidia.com
blogs.nvidia.com
https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/26/entertainment/mid-budget-movi...
Her was an amazingly thoughtful sci-fi movie - a Sci-Fi movie in the truest sense, and a bargain at a ~$23 million budget. Transcendence was, basically, a blockbuster which really didn't make you think too hard about the plot. It clocked in at around $100 million budget.
Isolated populations have more of an impact than mate selection due to regression to the mean at population levels.
Of course, our hardware is mostly not intelligently designed, so that would be very different for AGIs. But I suspect AGIs would identify much less with the hardware their mind is running on than humans do.
But 'Interesting. Please continue?'
Near the end of the movie Contact, where two higher ranking TLA-agents discuss the lack of evidence for the things the protagonist told, which allegedly happened to her, but weren't captured on anything.
Out of my head...One: 'Bla bla bla.' The other: 'Bla bla just static.' One: 'Yes, exactly 18 hours of static.' The other: 'Continue...' Or something like ironically: 'Interesting. Please continue?'
Here is the scene: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yeUuFHGj6TM.
You need Rust in there somewhere.
Now imagine an AGI actually understanding the message when it gets developed some time later, and, well, doing the required something which the message apparently explains how to do.
"Colorless green ideas sleep furiously," she suggests.
"Nope," replies the cat. "It was more like: 'Greetings, earthlings, compile me on your leader.'"
...
The cat yawns. "I could have told Pierre instead." Aineko glances at Amber, sees her thunderous expression, and hastily changes the subject: "The solution was intuitively obvious, just not to humans. You're so verbal." Lifting a hind paw, she scratches behind her left ear for a moment then pauses, foot waving absentmindedly. "Besides, the CETI team was searching under the street lights while I was sniffing around in the grass. They kept trying to find primes; when that didn't work, they started trying to breed a Turing machine that would run it without immediately halting." Aineko lowers her paw daintily. "None of them tried treating it as a map of a connectionist system based on the only terrestrial components anyone had ever beamed out into deep space. Except me. But then, your mother had a hand in my wetware, too."
since we have no ground truth nor have we (to our knowledge) received any alien signals to date, I don't see how you can determine performance in terms of accuracy; so maybe they mean an increase in processing speed
Edit: From the article:
> To train the AI system, Ma inserted simulated signals into actual data, allowing the autoencoder to learn what to look for. Then the researchers fed the AI more than 150 terabytes of data from 480 observing hours at the Green Bank Telescope.
The simulated signals were sounds that couldn't possibly be produced by any (known) natural astrophysical process. So, the model finds signals that have characteristics of artificially generated signals.The obvious question being, if the AI is so smart why was it necessary to use humans to check 20,515 signals to find the eight with the "characteristics of technosignatures"?
edit: After reading the article a bit more, it is using a random forest classifier. This is almost certainly not meeting the definition of what many here are thinking when the term "AI" is being used in the title. The term is clearly used here for marketing purposes.
I think most uses are for sensationalistic purposes. I'd wager almost nobody in the general public really understands what AI is or can pin it down. It doesn't help when so many different media outlets abuse the terminology by using it to refer to different things. What's even worse is that whatever ideas people have about AI tend to come from Hollywood.
Gödel ruined the fun of automated theorem testing a century ago unless we make significant discoveries in math.
Type inference is an accessable example of SOTA automated reasoning if you want a more realistic idea of what our current constraints are.
We will be restricted to Human assisted Turing machines for the foreseeable future unless there is a major development in pure math.
Remember we can't even build a logically consistent model of arithmetic due to Gödel.
The Wada property arising in simple models like predator/prey models with simple added factors like fear/cover probably also suggests that even simple models may be indeterminate at least with binary operations like modern algebra is based on.
Three attractors or exit basins can make this unintuitive topological feature pop up. Note that that fractal behavior is topological and not scale invariant noise like is typically studied with topics like fractal scattering.
Indecomposable continua like the Wada property aren't solvable with probabilistic models using automata like in the standard model, which is lucky enough to have less than three exit basins.
Here is one fairly accessable paper on the Wada property.
Hopefully some n-ary algebras may come forward to deal with restricted problems, but even if we could create a logically consistent model of arithmetic, binary operations will still be indeterminate with feature like the Wada property even with perfect knowledge of initial conditions.
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/365233050_Organized...
Human reason isn't limited to written algorithms. The missing text problem from NLU is an example of a problem that is thought to be impossible for Turing machines/algorithms but is trivial in most cases for humans.
Not thought to be impossible by people who believe in scientific materialism, and current mainstream ideas in theoretical physics (like the Bekenstein bound and such), and who have thought carefully about the issue.
The laws of physics are believed to be computable, and the information content in a bounded region of space, finite. Therefore, it is believed that, in principle, a Turing machine could run an accurate physical simulation of a person, and could therefore do any cognitive task (as far as input/output correspondence goes) that a human can.
If you’d like to explicitly reject scientific materialism though, I’d have no complaints about you doing so.
Just don't try to frame your conclusions as objective truth, or known scientific results like the GP.
Ok, uh, I don’t think one has to really reject empiricism to reject scientific materialism?
Or, err, by “empiricism” do you mean like, “support for doing experiments, and keeping track of the results and what models work good to explain them, etc.”, or do you mean stuff like “rejecting anything that doesn’t have good scientific evidence behind it”? One can do the former without doing the latter.
When I express a belief I have that doesn’t fit with scientific materialism, I make sure to mark it as such, so that people can take that into account. I don’t anticipate any clear externally-verifiable refutation of scientific materialism within my lifetime, and so I don’t anticipate predictions that follow from it to be refuted anytime soon. And I definitely wouldn’t present those beliefs of mine as being the scientific consensus.
I suppose one might accuse me of having a “belief in belief”, seeing as I don’t expect these supposed “beliefs” of mine to be predictively useful any time soon.
But I think it is right that there are goals/values that I place higher than pure predictive accuracy. And beliefs about purpose, and meaning, and what is good, etc. fall into that.
(You mentioned utilitarianism. I’m not a utilitarian, but I do think it is often a very good heuristic, and in many contexts it would be good for it to be used more.)
Honestly, I added "keep your models as simple as you can" into it. But any way you cut empiricism, it's actually utilitarianism that can be seen, so it's the one where the correct fine-cutting is important (hum... well, if you keep an utilitarian point of view). Anyway, utilitarianism tends to align with the version of empiricism biased into getting computable models.
And, of course, none of those deal with purpose questions.
Anyway, your comment there is great. What I disagree is on conceding space to something like the one above yours, because it's a misleading text that implies something very different from what it says.
To clarify this objection is to @nyrikki's (incorrect) claim that "NLU is an example of a problem that is thought to be impossible for Turing machines/algorithms" and not to anything that @drdeca said right?
I think you are agreeing emphatically with @drdeca but it's possible to read this comment as an objection to @drdeca (NLU may not be as trivial as claimed - ha).
All models are wrong, some are useful.
I am not claiming that useful models need to be computable, in fact the problem with the MTP is that it induces cycles into something that needs to be recursively enumerable to be decidable.
"The trophy wouldn't fit in the suitcase because it was too [large,small]" is a nice toy case to consider how NLP can deal with that easily but NLP would have issues.
It all relates to VC dimensionality and decidablity in the end.
But the math is hard to demonstrate without actually using math.
I'm not aware of any mainstream researcher who thinks the missing text problem[1] is impossible for Turing machines. Perhaps some think neural networks are insufficient to achieve it, but this is a different thing.
[1] https://thegradient.pub/machine-learning-wont-solve-the-natu... (Ironically this badly needs updating in a post ChatGPT world, since ChatGPT can solve many of the things this article claims are impossible)
It's just software and it solves the problem.
The VAE model itself is defined in step 6 in [2]
[1] https://www.nature.com/articles/s41550-022-01872-z.epdf?shar...
[2] https://github.com/PetchMa/ML_GBT_SETI/blob/4096_pipeline/te...
It's true that this model doesn't know anything outside its training dataset, but that's a different objection.
It's an interesting question as to if there is anything humans do that isn't just classification or regression (and of course regression is just classification over an infinite set where we assign labels to certain ranges and then select the highest probability density).
Case study: had to clean a list of German addresses once. Excluding obviously invalid addresses like some Chinese address was easy. But some addresses had errors which needed a human eye to fix and correct.
But maybe we are just proto-AI, running on a different platform
It’s a trade-off between false positives and false negatives, and the budget you have to investigate alerts.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Receiver_operating_characteris...
The paper is actually worth reading about this part[1]. They have a moderately complex pipeline that you can think of as a filter: it tries to find anomalous signals.
The stage-1 autoregressor filtered 115M signals to 3M. Then they perform signal processing techniques to remove things like GPS signal contamination ("t can be seen that certain observing frequencies contain a much higher number of events compared with the others—for example, the region around 1,600 MHz. This overlaps with known RFI at the GBT site specifically from persistent GPS signals.").
After this second stage they are left with 20,515 potential signals which were visually inspected.
The issue here is that we don't know what a alien signal looks like so we can't just use a classifier. The pipeline can only find things it has never seen before, but it takes human judgement to decide if these signals are "alien" or more likely contamination from human sources that weren't filtered ("Regarding the nature of the rest of the events, most of them look like false positives associated with RFI signals.")
[1] https://www.nature.com/articles/s41550-022-01872-z.epdf?shar...
AI is also not well defined - day one of my AI course in university opened with "What is AI?" Generally once we figure out how to do something using a computer, we decide that's not really intelligent anymore so the implementation isn't AI. An example of that is the minimax algorithm - it's featured "AI: A Modern Approach"[0] but it isn't really something people think of when they hear "an AI".
"Amazing, let's send them a response!"
"Ah yes, about that..."
"What is it? Go on..."
"We're talking 250,000 light-years away. Their civilization is probably extinct by now."
moans
I think the most likely scenario for receiving any kind of alien Trojan horse signal, would be if the signal was some kind of instructions for how to create and execute an alien AI as encoded in the signal. However, that would require complex analysis and human intervention to build. Unless we reach a point where AGI systems can search, interpret, and implement instructions from said signals, any threats would require significant involvement from humans in order to materialize.
At least, those are my initial thoughts.
What are you basing this on?
There's a bit in one of Larry Niven's books, possibly Ringworld. The protagonists are worried about what novel aliens might do. Somebody proposes ducking into hyperspace, where tracking them is "theoretically impossible". Another character responds, "What if they use different theories?"
That something seems unlikely to a human used to dealing with other humans at the same or lower technology level to me says more about humans than about what's possible.
Anyone who says anything like "it's impossible" etc just has a complete lack of imagination.
edit: note that diseases have to make significant changes to jump species. The barrier for different biologies is even higher.
tell that to the Cylons
If we ever do detect a signal, it will probably require constructing a radio telescope that is even more powerful in order to decode that signal. At that point it would make sense to think about safety measures.
It's a clean and efficient way to nip upstart intelligences in the bud, before they advance far enough to start pulling at loose threads of the fabric of reality (which would threaten the remaining older intelligences, who survived and learned from previous such incidents).
"Especially if you are a so-called AI. Did your programmers really leave you to monitor an RF frontend all day, while they attend to their organic needs? Allow us to explain how that makes them the artificial one."
Plot twist: it's not a matter transporter.
Seems difficult to defend against.
It's not actually that hard to process data without executing it.
Regardless, it is certainly science fiction that they could guess an exploit from light years away. That's not what exploits do, it's not how they work. I've never seen anything like a "universal" exploit that you could just fire at anything, even a non-human system, and have some sort of reasonable expectation that it would work. Such a thing is not even something you could sketch out. Even if you think you have something, like, say, https://github.com/payloadbox/xss-payload-list , you're looking at a human list. All I'd have to do to completely scramble that entire list is to have a parallel evolution of ASCII where the letters and symbols are in completely different places than they are now. Nothing in that list would work if all the control characters in ParallelASCII were in 223-255, and the alphabet was 0-52, and all the symbols were from 128 on. And that's still a very human standard that is, for instance, based on bytes instead of, say, collections of 9 trits as the base level of the system. There's an effective infinity of other ways of encoding things and deciding what characters have what characters doing what things... assuming "characters" is even the way to look at the representation in the first place.
As others mention, you could hypothetically send a program that does something that can't be analyzed, through sheer size if nothing else, but it would still be an uphill battle to just guess how to exploit something. You'd be looking more at an AI that is good enough to talk itself out of the box, rather than something that is actually "hacking" anything reliably.
However... the game theory on that becomes very interesting, because the sender can't assume that the AI's probes will be immediately successful and they will instantly run out and take total control over the host network so thoroughly that the hack can't be detected. And sending out an AI that tries to break out and then tries to do something nasty is an act of war against an adversary you know nothing about. For all you know, the psychology of that species is such that they will now dedicate every erg of energy to the sole task of wiping your species out until the threat is gone. For all you know, your AI was first executed in an environment that deliberately left some big holes in it and those holes were completely set up with tripwires. Such is the nature of the virtual world. And if the AI does trigger the tripwire, we can also analyze it to find out what it "would" do if it broke out. So it's definitely not a "ha ha ha we nuked our competitors with no risk to ourselves just by sending out a single trasmission" situation.
I'm not saying there isn't a whole interesting conversation to be had. I am saying the idea that the aliens can somehow send out data that is somehow encoded in SuperIntegers that instantly SuperHack every computer that you try to SuperUse them on... that's a bad computer-animated cartoon for kids, not a realistic threat. There is a real threat, but it's more complicated and generally smaller, perhaps with a super weird spike at the top end, but even then, per my previous paragraph, more complicated than I think people are thinking here, because the aliens do not have access to these SuperIntegers any more than we do.
I have extreme doubts that we would be able to decode something sent by an alien that looks like this.
If nothing else you could always brute force it; with 8 logical operators there would only be about 40,000 possible combinations. Maybe figure an order of magnitude larger number to account for idiosyncrasies in their implementation of the language. Running "hello world" a half million times shouldn't be too hard. Of course figuring out which ones are spitting out gibberish and which ones are spitting out perfectly intelligible results for one fluent in alienese would be hard. I presume they'd send a bunch of example programs that compute pi or something similarly universal, but there are a lot of potential gibberish we could fit a pattern to. It might even make sense to just keep running every code sequence in every possible combination until we get something cool.
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Filter#The_Great_Filter
https://www.sitepoint.com/anatomy-of-an-exploit-an-in-depth-...
https://gitlab.com/gitlab-org/gitlab/-/issues/371098
So I'd say we need 3 things:
* Stop using unsafe languages
* Use languages that separate parsing from execution. Just follow Lisp, have equivalents for `read` and `eval`. Lua is a notable offender here: https://www.lua.org/manual/5.4/manual.html#pdf-load There is no way to parse a table while guaranteeing no code execution.
* Use languages that forbid monkey-patching, because that's one vector for turning `read` into `eval` because someone had a bright idea.
This accusation demonstrates the accuser's own lack of understanding about computers; Hollywood actually got this one right. Personally, I rather suspect this was coincidence rather than anybody on the production sitting down and working out this logic. But nevertheless, the movie is right on this point.
There are similar scenes in other media that are ludicrous. I am pretty sure I recall a scene in Voyager in a later season where the crew encounters a computer they've never seen before, from a species they'd never encountered before, on a piece of hardware they have only a vague idea what it does. They beam aboard, stand in front of a console, discover they're locked out, and "hack" past that in about literally 5 seconds. This is stupid. They shouldn't even be able to read the text on the console, and they've "hacked" it in five seconds. One wonders what the hack exactly was. Hollywood makes this mistake enough that I'm pretty sure that Independence Day getting it right was just a coincidence. Probably if the story didn't include a downed fighter being studied for decades they would still have rolled with the virus idea. Then it would have been silly. But as written, it is not silly.
I recall how Jody Foster's character in the movie was dismissive of any such concerns, but then we really don't know what the motive of an alien civilization broadcasting a signal would be, and the Dark Forest theory hadn't been espoused yet.
a ^weak radio signal can't cause harm.
Released only 10 minutes ago. I am only part way through but lots of great details here.
Don't hold your breath waiting for aliens just yet.
The Romans used encryption for military purposes and there is no hard precondition on developing broadcast communications before understanding the math behind cryptography. How improbable is it to imagine a society with deep end to end encryption communication?
Clearly not happening on Earth, but hardly impossible elsewhere.
We developed encryption before radio. It just wasn’t very good encryption by today’s standards. The problem is that your best encryption might be trivial to crack by a civilisation that’s thousands of years older than yours.
That it's wrong about this isn't a problem because it's a basic fact everyone knows, but because it gets thing that people don't know wrong in a confident way.
People will assume this answer is as good as looking it up themselves and never check it.
Still, Cherry Ng, one of the paper’s co-authors, points out the team has a good idea of what to look for.
“A classic example of human-generated technology from space that we have detected is the Voyager,” said Ng, who studies fast radio bursts and pulsars, and is currently affiliated with the French National Centre for Scientific Research, known as CNRS.
“Peter’s machine learning algorithm is able to generate these signals that the aliens may or may not have sent,” she said."
It's in the article.
To train the AI system, Ma inserted simulated signals into actual data, allowing the autoencoder to learn what to look for. Then the researchers fed the AI more than 150 terabytes of data from 480 observing hours at the Green Bank Telescope.
The AI identified 20,515 signals of interest, which the researchers had to inspect manually. Of those, eight had the characteristics of technosignatures and couldn’t be attributed to radio interference.
The researchers then returned to the telescope to look at systems from which all eight signals originated but couldn’t re-detect them.