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Comment by dmpk2k | Hacker News Reader

There is the mistaken understanding that this is all just an artefact of Putin. It's not. Most of the Russian elite agree with this war, since they (collectively, including before Putin) have been warning that they will not allow Ukraine to join NATO since the 1990s. This is all well documented.

All the bluster about "denazification and demilitarization" and helping the DNR/LPR aside, this war is entirely about NATO. It would make no difference were Putin replaced, in fact it may be worse since he is (surprisingly) one of the more moderate voices in Russia.

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It’s not, and hasn’t ever really been, just about Ukraine “joining” NATO, because that was never on the cards. It still isn’t, even despite all of this. There’s a lot more to it.

Also you’re incorrect in your assessment of most of the Russian elite thinking this war was a good idea, that’s just not true, or you’re making the mistake of taking statements by them at face value, which my Ukrainian/Russian extended family will be the first to tell you to be careful of.

It also depends on what you mean by elite. The social elite in Moscow or St Petersburg does not run the show. Neither does the military. The security apparatus does.

And it doesn’t appear the security forces know exactly what is going on.

You mean intelligence agencies? Yes, they are powerful, but all of the siloviki have the real power in Russia today.

"Never" is too strong: George W. Bush pushed hard for Georgia and Ukraine to join NATO at the Bucharest Summit in 2008: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2008/apr/01/nato.georgia

The Russian elite aren’t the folks who were pushing for the war. Many didn’t think it would even happen / have a clue that it would happen.

I think you mistake self preservation in the form of support for a war with the will to start one and continue it.

It’s a kleptocracy, most of them just want money. Putins circle is small and most elite had no idea what was going to happen.

People who have plenty of money quickly get bored and seek something stronger: power.

It would be nice of some would… and move out Putin…

I’m no fan of the Russian kleptocracy, but a peaceful one would save a lot of lives. Including a lot of Russian lives.

The Russian public has proven that it can collectively switch to believing whatever needs to be believed in order to continue the war. NATO is simply an excuse to reintegrate Ukraine into the Russian empire that it was part of for very long. When Finland, also on the border with Russia, decided to join NATO, Putin said that there's no problem with that, that it was something for the Finns to decide. Fear of enemies closing in somehow doesn't play there. But Ukraine, where there are millions of ethnic Russians and a similar culture, abundant natural resources, and history that needs to be fixed, is an obvious target if you're restoring an empire.

That was then. Russian leaders have recently been much more aggressive about their language towards Finland.

Both Sergey Lavror and Maria Zakharova, in particular, have changed their discourse to be quite a bit more hostile as time has gone by.

But the point is that Russia does nothing to prevent Finland from joining NATO. The comment I was replying to claimed that the Ukraine war is all about NATO expansion.

It doesn’t mean that they’d do anything about it. It’s Putin that’s eliminated anyone who can challenge him, so I assume when he goes so does the war and probably Russia as we know it.

It depends. If Russia collapses, yes. If not, you will just get someone the system accepts, and that's a Hawk, probably a Russian Nationalist Hawk. Putin is a Soviet Empire Hawk.

Please provide references to your claims that Ukraine wanted to join NATO that date before 2014. Not from Putin and Co claims. Ukraine, until very recently had no plans of joining NATO. Apparently Russia attempted Ukraine invasions starting 20+ years ago. It was always about rebuilding empire and forcing everyone back. And still is.

> this war is entirely about NATO

No, this is almost not at all about NATO. This is about Ukraine drifting from Russian sphere of influence to the western sphere of influence. Russia would not allow Ukraine to join EU either, even if it promised to never enter NATO.

In short, this is about making Ukraine another Belarus.

You're not wrong, because that is true too, but it is NATO that scares Russia.

Given Russia's long history of bloody invasions, I don't think this is something Americans can at all relate to. The American Civil War is small potatoes compared to some of the things that Russians (and other continental countries) have been through.

It makes for a very paranoid country.

> Given Russia's long history of bloody invasions, I don't think this is something Americans can at all relate to.

This is something which most European countries can relate to, but they don't use it (anymore) to justify imperialism.

Of course not, because they are all American vassals. Being under the Pax Americana umbrella myself, I'm quite okay with that.

However, I hope you can understand why a major power like Russia might be suspicious.

> Of course not, because they are all American vassals.

Someone is eating the Russian propaganda here. Projection and all.

> However, I hope you can understand why a major power like Russia might be suspicious.

It can be as suspicious as it wants, within its borders.

That knee-jerk reply exemplifies why there won't be any negotiations any time soon, and I'm just some random person on the Internet.

You need to take a walk, and I'm out too.

That's okay, time for negotiations has long passed.

The amount of effort you people put into not hearing what russians have on multiple occasions in plainest of words claimed to be the goal of the war is honestly mind boggling.

Was it denazification, demilitarization, or de-satanization? I've lost track of the many stated goals. Or was it to help those poor souls in the DPR shoot down more civilian jets? Can't quite remember. Or was it to protect German speakers in the Sudetenland?

And anyway, it's not a war. It's a Special Military Operation. How more plain can you get?

I think it was something to do with pigeons and bioweapons?

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