First builder’s remedy plan for Bay Area revealed in Los Altos Hills
sfyimby.com
sfyimby.com
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=34597507 1236 comments
However, the past year has shown the opposite, and completely disproven this line of argument. What causes gentrification is that city planning forces all development into the communities with the lowest rents. And the bills that would have broadly upzoned, and included protections for at risk communities, would have accomplished more housing affordability without displacing the most at-risk tenants.
Seeing where builder's remedy projects have gone should be a mask-off moment for those that opposed SB50 and SB827, two bills that would have allowed a ton of new development that enables transit. Projects like this one in Los Altos Hills are good for increasing economic integration of the Bay Area, but they do it at a cost of reinforcing car-dependent living.
Holy cow, mandating that many parking spaces is outrageous. That's four parking spaces per unit.
Given that this appears to be basically 5 single family townhomes, and 15 apartments, its probably going to cause real parking nightmares for people who live there if any of those single bedroom units have two adults living in them. Its going to require a hard cap of 1 car per apartment unit and 2 cars per townhome which leaves 3 spots for visitors. I hope the people who live there enjoy walking to the closest public transport because some number of them aren't going to have any choice unless the place is full of single adults who never have live in friends. Except its the bay area, 800sf apartment will probably be full of couples, invariably with kids.
So that isn't to say 80 is the right number either, but i'm guessing anything below 1.5 spots per apartment and 3 spots per townhome (~40 total) is legitimately too few.
Mandating that no one is allowed to live with less than 3 parking spots per house is utterly absurd. Not every single house is going to have two adults and a teenager who all have their own car.
I don't have the numbers handy, but the way the math works out ... the only way the economics make sense in a number of different neighborhoods is if lux condos/highrises are built. Otherwise developers don't have a way to recoup the ~$200k/door cost requirement of building that much parking (I think it was $200k, someone correct me if I'm wrong).
The roads to access the property (Summit Wood as well as Rhus Ridge and especially Bassett Lane) are at most a car and a half wide in some places. Quadrupling the number of cars that come and go is going to be catastrophicly hilarious for those of us who don't live there.
Probably a little less funny when a wildfire rips through there.
And I don't know how you could say this will stop homeownership being a wealth building scheme, because it certainly allows that to continue.
This is just good policy in action.
If, for example, you live in an expensive second-rate suburb, a proliferation of affordable homes in first rate suburbs will eventually drive your home's value into the gutter.
Here's to hoping the residents can own them.
It's good to give people the opportunity to own a home, but it's also important to recognize that some people simply aren't in a place in life where that's practical — such as me, for instance, doing a residency, where I'll likely move away afterwards.
"...looking more like Mexico than Switzerland."
I'm confused. Is this something specific about Mexico vs Switzerland landscape or culture or strictly economics (GDP per capita)?Also, the idea that homeownership is about wealth-building is not true in many highly advanced countries, including Germany, France, and Japan. They don't have the "housing casino" that exists in US, Canada, UK, and Australia.
Just build high density. That’s it.
At least with that requirement, some people will get into homes sooner. And frankly it's for the best; it'll enable service staff etc. to live closer to the cities that need them.
Developers build for whatever profits the most, and they'll avoid taking a loss just as an entrepreneur will do what they can to avoid a down round. That's why we're short millions of housing units but no one's addressing the need; developers would rather create market at the top than address low margin markets at the bottom.
> If they overbuild luxury houses, they'll go down in price.
Tons of overbuilt supply isn't doing much against new build pricing (not enough to make it affordable. 10% tops when we instead need homes that are 50+% discounted relative to market). In fact, many developers are instead subsidizing points on mortgages through preferred lenders so they can justify that original pricing, and the points are often cheaper than a market adjustment on a home.
> All new supply is good supply, period.
That's not the case when developers would rather hold than sell at a loss. See my first point and the homes going off the market waiting for housing to pick up steam again.
> We need everything from SROs to luxury penthouses. That's the only way we land on affordable housing in a market economy.
Lol. That's the extent of my rebuttal. I'm not here to debate, I apologize. But I'd advise you sit down with a few local builders to understand their strategies to maximize gain in this market; quite a few are prepared to hold as long as needed rather than build cheap and sell to lower-margin markets. And that does exactly nothing to address today's housing problem; if it was a simple matter of supply and demand, it'd have already been addressed with the vast swaths of land we've got.
> Lol. That's the extent of my rebuttal. I'm not here to debate, I apologize.
Very eloquent. I'm sure you're right and this is the only market on earth supply and demand just doesn't work.
That's the only way we land on affordable housing in a market economy.
For the record, the City of Berlin is one of the largest owners of rental property in... the City of Berlin. And, Germany is definitely a market economy. That said, in the United States, this would be probably be impossible. The economy and politics is much too classically liberal. (I'm not talking about Democrats == liberal.)Yes, I agree with your main point: "All new supply is good supply, period." Japan is very fair about this: The cities look visually sh-tty (during the daytime) -- architectural eyesore / concreted mess... but the prices are reasonable for middle class people. Noah Smith wrote about it:
Japanese cities like Tokyo have managed to build enough housing to make housing costs fall
Ref: https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/actually-japan-has-changed...In other words, capitalism actually works at setting prices.
Put another way, would you rather live in a new house that was meant to be sold way below market, and has all sorts of structural shortcuts, or in an older house that was mid- to high-end when it was built a few decades ago?
it'll enable service staff etc. to live closer to the cities that need them.
Yes, and other professions like nurses, teachers, police, firefighters, etc.And then when someone does try to improve the situation by building medium density housing in Atherton (hah, I jest, by naively trying to suggest maybe building, I mean)... you get people like Steph Curry filing objections because he might have to increase the height of his fence for privacy.
Unless developers and trusts etc. are overleveraged, they've got no incentive to dump luxe properties at below market when they know they can sell at a profit whenever the boom times come back — and this'll always be the case because impulsive or desperate buyers generally won't wait out a market. And a lot of them learned how to leverage safely after the great recession. So long as they're willing and able to attrit buyers, they'll win.
Hence why we need affordable housing mandates for the people who need and can't wait for homes — the discounts free-market proponents are projecting simply won't show up unless there's a systemic liquidity issue. And that might not happen for another 20 years now that the CRE matter is being solved with large enterprises bringing their employees back into offices.
> The developer hazards to guess construction will take at least five years to start
I am aware that many currently-loved styles were considered atrocious when they were invented, and I direct your attention to the thousands of disgusting strip malls, regular malls, and faux-brutalist office buildings from the 50s-70s that the public is at best apathetic towards as proof that simply because some styles became loved, not all styles will do so.
[edit] It's NIMBY's own fault if they don't like what gets built. They had their chance to participate in the process by designing a reasonable and fair housing element. They said no, and chose violence. It's time to enter the 'find-out' phase.
As for the "find-out" phase--many cities are going into that phase, including my beloved hometown. I'm founding out that what The People want is 5-over-1 stick frame buildings owned by out-of-state development companies. I don't even know what I could possibly do in order to motivate my city to take itself seriously architecturally and build some new housing that doesn't scream "warehouse". Perhaps I should become a housing developer and propagandist and do it myself.
Given the number of people desperate for housing, I’m content leaving this for the rich people who want custom builds. The NIMBYs aren’t going to relax even if the entire project is designed by a who’s who of architecture.
I'd happily raze several square miles of land in my hometown and build nothing but housing if what came after was something like Copenhagen, instead of Houston (which is what's currently happening).
There’s absolutely no doubt that those cities are just generally better designed and their core areas are far more aesthetic and well tended to than most American cities. But with that said the vast middle class areas of those cities where people actually live are a lot more generic and cookie-cutter than the parts people tend to see when traveling.
They have plenty of boring new construction too.
It's quite depressing to me that so many people unthinkingly accept the premise that there's no time to build society to any standards that someone would be proud of or pleased about. It builds an apathy and almost a resentment to any sense of time or place within its residence. It's a lack of culture enforced by architecture.
A good example is advertisements. They clutter every public space and make people simply ignore what they're seeing. "Just an ad." People will go hours through a city and never look up because they already know what's there.
I still preferred many of those neighborhoods but that’s because driving wasn’t as heavily subsidized and so the neighborhoods have a more human scale and were safer to walk in. Looking at the neighborhood where this property is, the biggest problem I see is that there’s nothing to do. No corner markets or bars - I loved the neighborhood coffee shop/bars in Portugal and Spain, no parks, not even a bike lane or often sidewalks.
> Many of Europe’s most famous buildings are basically monuments to how profitable slavery & colonialism were
I find this a confusing stance to take. Do you think that there's ever been a civilization that wasn't founded and maintained by incredible violence perpetrated by powerful people? You can go to South Dakota and see many monuments and markers to the Lakota--except the Lakota came into the area and slaughtered the Pawnee, forcing them out of their ancestral homelands and into less desirable land to the south. On every continent, in every country, if there's evidence of wealth there, someone died for it. I don't think that's a good reason to accept the inevitability of drab, ugly, cheap living conditions.
Furthermore, I can apply the same logic to anything that is the product of slavery or imperialism. The chip in my laptop is a monument to the profitability of artisan mining and the endless imperialist destabilization of African regimes. The fact that I can drive my car whenever I want is a monument to Saudi control over the middle eastern oil fields and Canadian imperialism over shale lands that used to belong to the natives. There are good reasons to give these things up, but if your governing principle is "I must live morally, and anything that relies on the conquering and subjugation of another people is immoral" your options are basically to either commit suicide or move to your ethnic homeland and live as a pauper.
> I find this a confusing stance to take. Do you think that there's ever been a civilization that wasn't founded and maintained by incredible violence perpetrated by powerful people?
The point wasn't that this was unique in human history but that many of the buildings tourists love required historically-rare amounts of money and labor to create. We have better technology now but labor, especially from skilled artisans, is in much tighter supply and a lot of those classic building techniques aren't widely used because almost nobody likes them enough to be willing to pay current market rates.
Personally, I don't think there would be any less opposition to these homes, no matter the visual appearance. People simply hate change, until they experience it, after which they quickly adjust and forget there was a problem to begin with.
And towards that end, I think that any visual standard should be completely disqualified from evaluation of building plans; that is, unless there is a pre-approved, and affordable, style of building that will always be approved no matter what. Otherwise, quibbling over appearances will always be a veto point that will be used regardless of appearances.
This is always mentioned, and it's just not true. If it were true that people always "quickly adjust and forget there was a problem" then those all-concrete freeway plaza towns would be "beloved" instead of reviled, and the "all highways all the time" city remodeling would be considered perfectly acceptable by everyone.
It is actually possible to build an ugly city that remains ugly after the contemporary ethos has passed. No one's buying plane tickets to visit the architecture in Columbus, OH.
Are you saying there's a building style that's not criticized while it's being built? Could you give an example?
The rest of the paragraph instead focused on people not living Colombus, OH, which I'm not sure how you got to. The primary reason people aren't flocking to Colombus OH is because of the lack of jobs. People tend to flock places because of economic opportunity, not because of architecture.
No, I'm saying that the fact that new styles are always criticized is not implicit proof that all styles eventually become accepted.
I will clarify that by "flocking" I meant "visiting". Some people live in cities and towns that are so nice other people want to visit those cities--New York, Paris, Florence, Aix-en-Provence, whatever. This effect is not limited to large cities--there are also smaller towns that people deliberately go and spend vacation time in just to feel a sense of actually appreciating the buildings and paths they're surrounded by. When they're not spending their PTO touring actually nice places, they live in the Modern American City, which is a place to exist while you drive between your apartment box, your job box, and your preferred entertainment center.
https://www.google.com/maps/place/11511+Summit+Wood+Rd,+Los+...
Most of these neighborhoods you could 10x the traffic without anyone noticing.
But so what? This is a last ditch effort to beef up the critically low housing supply, not intended to be the ideal solution.
I would suggest that Los Altos Hills should start enabling transit if their roads are overloaded. Or even better, they should have done some planning.
Not going to happen.
Even other countries with great public transit dont do have that.
You could run buses, but youve just turned a 30 min commute by car into a 1.5hr bus ride with multiple bus changes.
Transit only works in medium to high density cities.
Basically every square inch of that country is connected to convenient and frequent public transit. And it’s one of the most naturally inhospitable places for building anything you can imagine, we’re talking towns on the side of cliffs and so on.
But if you’re in a tiny village at minimum there’s a bus that connects to rail, frequently, and that rail is frequent and highly reliable and goes literally everywhere.
It’s possible and we have the resources to do it too we just don’t.
Turning a 30 min commute by car into 1.5hr by transit means few uses it.