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Comment by echelon | Hacker News Reader

It's more evidence of how bad Google has been at building diverse revenue streams.

Search is going to be driven to zero profit, and that's going to cripple Google.

Literally everyone is empowered to build better products than Google search. And Microsoft / OpenAI will subsidize it, laughing all the way to the bottom. It'll completely poison 50% of all the money Google can make.

Google had two decades to ensure they were safe, and stuff like Killed By Google / Project Sunroof is all they've got to show for what their product culture can build.

Google is going to try really hard to reinvent themselves, but they haven't accomplished anything along that front in the last two decades. I wouldn't bet on that magic happening overnight. Their founders have been absent and their leadership has been coasting. The picture is clear as day.

Google's done. Google got checkmated hard.

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people just get on here and say nonsense like this.

Dude, I'm living in my office working on this stuff 24/7. I quit my $400k/yr TC job because I believe in this stuff so strongly. You have no idea the wave of disruption coming. I'm seeing fundamental breakthroughs every single day. AI Twitter is simultaneously incredible and haunting.

So many people are sleeping on something bigger than the internet itself. This is huge. Pay attention.

Google should be scared to death. They're in a precarious position and ripe for disruption. Even adapting to the new world order puts their primary revenue stream at risk.

Think about it and then think about how you might be able to take advantage of this. Fortunes unlike any before are about to be made.

I can't wait to see this "bigger than the internet."

AGI is bigger than the internet. We're somewhere along that path right now, and I suspect we're closer than we realize.

I personally don't think we'll have AGI in my lifetime.

> You have no idea the wave of disruption coming.

Cool, but can you give some concrete examples so it doesn't sound like you're being extremely hyperbolic?

> Even adapting to the new world order puts their primary revenue stream at risk.

Even if Bing and Google end up having similar LLM chat capabilities with Bing being first to deliver, would it be enough to get Google users to move to Bing?

The current business models need to be more than being able to converse with a chatbot. Ads will still need to be integrated and they might come off a lot worse when integrated into a conversation. It's definitely interesting times but I don't see how it's a new world order yet.

How is Google sleeping on AI? By all accounts, they have had a better LLM than ChatGPT (Lamda), years in advance of ChatGPT.

Google is hampered in that they have a lot to risk. They're a big lawsuit target that can't go around wildly violating copyright and subjecting the world to dangerously, convincingly confident BS.

But make no mistake - they are world leaders in AI, they have their best engineers working on it, they beat everyone to the punch with a high performing LLM amongst a mountain of other AI advances, and they recognize the threat to their business model. You're kidding yourself if you think otherwise.

It doesn't matter how good they are or how much institutional knowledge they've acquired. 50% of their revenue stream is being existentially threatened, and nothing will stick around if that vanishes. Talent will be plucked, internal projects will wither on the vine, and the velocity of the entire company will seize up.

It doesn't matter that Google was the Bell Labs of its time or that it was first and best at AI. Bell Labs also got sunk by disruption despite being the best in the world.

Google was also best at cloud once upon a time (Borg/k8s/spanner/...), and you saw what happened there. This is looking like a repeat.

Let's agree to come back here in 12 months. If Google is dead, I'll buy you (and myself) several beers.

They won't be dead, but pay attention to cash flows and market cap.

I'll also give it 24-36 months to play out.

It's too early for me to start buying puts, but I'm very eager to start. It's not just my investment thesis, but my worldview.

You need to take a break from social media and from your computer.

I think this should be turned around. You should pay attention to what's happening.

99% of what you consume online is just noise, man. You're clearly driving yourself mad. This isn't concern trolling, I have the same problem.

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