Simulation of tsunami from dinosaur-killing asteroid that brought 2.5 mile waves
sos.noaa.gov
sos.noaa.gov
As a statistician: this is why heavy-tailed modeling matters. Schools teach the finite-variance version of the Central Limit Theorem and students believe they live in a normal world. The real Central Limit Theorem [1] predicts large rare events following Lévy α-stable distributions.
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stable_distribution#A_generali...
The normal distribution is just a very particular case of the generalized CLT.
For example, some drug effects are heavy-tailed, but safety trials are often ignoring this.
[1] https://adamwierman.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/2013-SIGM...
[2] https://adamwierman.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/book-05-1...
where can i read about this? curious
Log-normal is a quite nasty heavy-tailed distribution as it's easy to take it for normal if you have small sample sizes.
This has tricked the safety calculations of a few trials. I don't think it's too worrying or generalized, just some area to improve.
https://www.theguardian.com/science/2006/jul/26/uknews
But we're still designing ships as though they only happen once every thousand years because the cargo and the ship are insured and the crews are considered expendable.
The loss of ten ships a year seems incredible to me. Surely "weather", if it were to blame, could be avoided.
This amount of loss is steep. Is it being investigated? We should have ocean swell data beamed to satellite from every ship that capsizes.
If those are all ocean-going, ten a year is about 1.1%. Depending on how expensive it would be to prevent this, that may not be bad for ship owners, but it is very bad for those seeking a career in working on those ships.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/198227/forecast-for-glob...
although the parent comment mentioned "longer than 200m" but its difficult to find containership stats by length rather than by TEU.
ignoring that though it would be 0.07% lost per year or 1 out of every 1447.
probably not too surprising, since if you pick 1447 oil tankers/containerships and audit them consider what the worst looking one is going to look like after decades of salt damage and abuse and poor maintenance.
AFAIK rogue waves are called 'rogue' due to their unpredictability.
So in the sense of trying not to die, avoid the Gulf and Agulhas currents, especially when a low blows through.
This coming from an amateur sailor. I believe freight shipping etc just plows through most weather systems in order to avoid delays.
Ocean floor methanhydrate and a volcanic shift, results in tremendous bubble columns, which just open up a shaft that can carry nothing. Water begins to boil, ship falls in, breaks apart... End of story.
How many incidents of this have there been? I've heard of the theory, but no actual losses attributed to it.
Not worth it to try to make every ship less sinkable - e.g. it may decrease the number of annual losses by 50% at the cost of making an average ship 10% more expensive - obviously a bad trade. Some ships will still sink, because of stuff like human errors.
How much do you think the humankind is willing to pay to save a human live - a million dollars, a billion, a trillion?
Also, even if they do, it doesn't stop them from being exploited.
Your own skeletal system is a trade-off of different factors.
>One passenger was killed and four more injured after a "rogue wave" hit a cruise ship bound for Antarctica, travel company Viking has said.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-63846157 (Dec 2022)
Preparing for stuff like a nuclear war would mean buying land in South America, Africa or Australia, building an underground bunker, stacking on water, food, medicine and weapons, etc.
And practically speaking, the tax avoidance means that's considerably better than 11% in a non-retirement account, but it was too much effort to do the math.
Despite all the pestilence, war, earthquakes, and stuff like that, doing nothing was the smart move again, with $1 or $1 million.
I don't think it makes sense to prepare for a global collapse of civilization because in the event whatever you will reap won't make hardly any difference in how much things suck. You can't eat money, much less use it as a shelter from a global rain of molten rock.
So on principle, regardless of the probability of Armageddon, I don't think one should give up much to try to hedge the end of the world.
That’s a surprise to me. Now I’m curious: With what definition of “short tailed” can that be true?
How much water does your faucet leak per day? That might be a good case for a normal distribution. But today I smack it with a hammer and it can’t stop flowing. We now have a ton of water far more than should ever appear on that original normal distribution. Is that because the model is wrong? No. It’s because the model is not designed for these circumstances.
We can’t build a model that estimates flow distribution including the possibility that I smack it with a hammer. That doesn’t mean we don’t believe it won’t ever happen or even that we think it is unlikely to happen. It’s just a weird edge case.
A lot of people (taleb) imply statisticians are idiots because they insist the distributions are comprehensive. But statisticians don’t insist this. Black swan, fat tails, and all that are just terms for things outside modeled conditions. And yeah. They happen.
No, I can't really imagine it either.
In San Francisco, the tallest building is the Salesforce Tower at 1070ft. The biggest wave would be about 13 times taller than that.
I totally have trouble visualizing it, other than just looking up and up and up.
Safe to say we don't have real world examples to test at planetary scale, so I'm a little skeptical as to how accurate any of these models are. We just know the result was a planetary-scale extinction event for at least 60% of life, although there is also the possibility of multiple impacts, and previous volcanic activity aiding the extinction.
> a curtain of ejected material pushed a wall of water outward from the impact site, briefly forming a 4.5 kilometers high (2.8 miles) wave that subsided as the ejecta fell back to Earth. Ten minutes after the projectile hit the Yucatan, and 220 kilometers (137 miles) from the point of impact, a 1.5 kilometers high (0.93 miles) tsunami wave—ring-shaped and outward-propagating—began sweeping across the ocean in all directions
4.5km would dwarf that.
(I had a similar feeling when I was in the High Atlas mountain range in Morocco and tried to look up to the top)
It's unlikely that it's the tallest mountain in the universe, though, and a true pity that if the current understanding of physics is correct, and we can not travel faster than the speed of light, no human will ever experience those massive, distant mountains outside our solar system except in images or virtual reality.
A partial list is: tsunamis, earthquakes, volcanoes, supervolcanoes, flood basalts, asteroid impacts, magnetic field reversals, climate change (eg ice once covered the equator, North America used to be covered in an ice sheet a mile thick not that long ago), particles in the atmosphere blocking the Sun, supernovas, gamma ray bursts, solar flares and coronal mass ejections.
It's kind of amazing we're here at all.
https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly9mZWVkcy5tZWdhcGh...
Or how 536 was the worst year on record (and no one really knows why)
https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly9mZWVkcy5tZWdhcGh...
Although I didn't listen to the 11 minute podcast, I was curious to know basically what it was about. This is what Wikipedia says about year 536:
"In 2018, medieval scholar Michael McCormick nominated 536 as 'the worst year to be alive' because of the extreme weather events probably caused by a volcanic eruption early in the year, causing average temperatures in Europe and China to decline and resulting in crop failures and famine for well over a year. Other researchers have noted additional adverse events during the year, including a mysterious fog, possibly due to the volcanic eruption."[1]
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volcanic_winter_of_536
Whether it was “the worst year in history” is probably tough to quantify and prove, though.
This makes me think that if life comes back after that 6 times, then it must be pretty easy for life to start.
Or that they are wrong and the whole surface was not in fact sterilised. Or life survived somewhere other than on the surface (deep underground, underwater, or high in the sky).
The article didn't say but I was also curious and looked it up on Wikipedia:
> The water depth at the impact site varied from 100 meters (330 ft) on the western edge of the crater to over 1,200 meters (3,900 ft) on the northeastern edge.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chicxulub_crater#Impact_specif...
https://news.umich.edu/dinosaur-killing-asteroid-triggered-g...
They do say that airborne water and sediment traveled several hundred kilometers.
And now I have an idea for Elon Musk: interplanetary disaster tourism. Purposefully crash asteroids on remote areas of Mars and charge for front row seats. This would have the added benefit of bringing valuable metal ores to be harvested close to the demand source.
Games were fun enough, some good, some not. The visual, non-interactive experience gave me a true sense of awe, as if I were transposed into another reality briefly. Not a big fan of the whole "meta" idea, but executed and refined properly, we'll be in the matrix soon enough. Glad I won't be participating :)
Back then, I showed it to visitors at work (besides real projects) and it never failed to impress.
At best you'd make the surface slightly warmer and maybe melt some leftover CO2 on the poles.
To actually terraform it to anything resembling even an Earth desert, you'd need incomprehensible amounts of energy.
If you want a SciFi story touching many such topics I highly recommend "Seveneves" by Neal Stephenson.
https://impact.ese.ic.ac.uk/ImpactEarth/cgi-bin/crater.cgi?d...
Thermal Radiation:
Time for maximum radiation: 11.5 seconds after impact
Visible fireball radius: 223 km ( = 138 miles )
The fireball appears 169 times larger than the sun
Thermal Exposure: 7.72 x 10^9 Joules/m^2
Duration of Irradiation: 49.7 minutes
Radiant flux (relative to the sun): 2590
(The physics aren't the same, but just for the sake of comparison: Chicxulub's 4e8 megatons-TNT of energy, at 300 km, is 1/r^2 equivalent to a 4 megaton nuke, at 30 meters).Altitude 300mi is not the same as linear distance to blast 300mi
At 300mi up you could be over a different continent and get a good view and you would probably want to be so that you get a better view from the side.
Don't know how safe you would be. If I remember correctly, there's a theory saying that impact ejecta even shot out into space.
Crazy.
I think the forces and energies are so large that the fluid dynamics dominate.
I’m imagining that much water would scour the land clear pretty severely.
https://www.theyucatantimes.com/2022/10/dinosaurs-take-over-...
The 2020 paper establishing Chicxulub event as the driving factor of extinction also said that "prolonged eruption of the Deccan traps might have acted as an ameliorating agent" i.e. cancelling the negative effects of asteroid impact.
https://www.cbc.ca/radio/quirks/june-30-2018-a-comet-from-th...
The amplitude of the wave animated here reached 1.5 km miles high (0.93 miles) but the initial wave might have reached 4.5 kilometers high (2.8 miles).
Also, I think they could have gone with "1.6 km (1 mile)" or maybe "1.5 km (about 1 mile)" perhaps. Oh well.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cretaceous–Paleogene_extinctio...
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/16/science/dinosaurs-extinct...
> The Chicxulub crater is an impact crater buried underneath the Yucatán Peninsula in Mexico.
So I guess plate techtonics have caused things to shift around such that the crater isn't a hole in the surface now, but is underneath other rock?