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Comment by Kibae | Hacker News Reader

I wonder what the cost to take down the balloon was for the US (including monitoring it) vs. the cost of the balloon for China. If the ratio is something greater than 10:1, then I would say China got a pretty good ROI on a small investment.

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It was probably a much higher ratio than that. Wouldn't be surprised if it was actually 1000:1. On the other hand, the military is constantly in need of new drills to keep everyone's skills sharp. This was a pretty good one for them with no negative outcomes beyond whatever data might have been collected and sent back to China.

The thing is gigantic. It's definitely not cheap and most likely more than the unit cost of a missile.

Missles are pretty expensive, the sidewinders they used to shoot out down cost between 200 and 400k

A regular hot air balloon can cost 200-400k and this is substantially larger with more lift capability and had presumably expensive payload and propulsion. Worldview spent millions of dollars on a substantially smaller balloon that granted is capable of a few miles higher flight with less payload.

Not really, a regular hot air balloon usually costs 20-40k, a crazy fancy shaped balloon ised for advertising will maybe push 100.

No. The US almost definitely got the better end of the deal. Lots of pieces got to test their readiness in a live scenario.

>Lots of pieces got to test their readiness in a live scenario.

Against an extremely slow moving balloon?

I really do wonder if this is them testing that they can reliably and cheaply get high-altitude balloons to the U.S. mainland. In the event of a military conflict, I can imagine them swarming us with these. They must cost far, far less than the average American military aircraft. If our air power becomes partly tied up defending Taiwan, dropping bombs from craft like these might be an effective strategy to demoralize the U.S. population. I commented this above but I feel it's worth repeating here: the only casualties in the U.S. mainland during WW2 were Japanese balloons dropping bombs on the west coast[1].

I also wonder if this operation will end up backfiring. Suddenly, lots of people in the U.S. have Chinese aggression on their mind. Knowing Americans pretty well, I would expect this to actually increase public support for the defense of Taiwan. Inshallah.

1. https://amp.smh.com.au/world/north-america/when-japanese-bal...

> This week, with attention on the suspected Chinese spy balloon over the United States, the U.S. Naval Institute posted on Facebook, “When the USS New York was sailing towards Iwo Jima in 1945, the crew spotted a silver sphere flying high overhead that seemed to follow the battleship for hours. Concerned that the shiny orb might be a Japanese balloon weapon, the captain ordered it shot down. After the guns failed to score a hit, a navigator realised that they were attacking Venus.”

That's mildly adorable.

> If our air power becomes partly tied up defending Taiwan, dropping bombs from craft like these might be an effective strategy to demoralize the U.S. population.

No, it would have the opposite effect, like 9/11 or Pearl Harbor. They'd be starting WW3 and deciding to solo it vs NATO and friends.

> Suddenly, lots of people in the U.S. have Chinese aggression on their mind. Knowing Americans pretty well, I would expect this to actually increase public support for the defense of Taiwan.

Yeah, I think you're right.

People have started catastrophic wars over small miscalculations and misinformation.

Balloon attack is a bad idea. Attacks don’t demoralize unless they are devastating. Devastating isn’t possible since US would threaten nukes. It also risks escalating the conflict and China mainland is more vulnerable. It would also get rid of any American uncertainty about defending Taiwan.

What matters isn’t the cost of fighter but cost of missile. The Sidewinder used was $400k. Unguided rockets might work and are super cheap. The US has a ton of fighter aircraft including Air National Guard that wouldn’t be sent overseas.

I suspect that balloons wouldn’t be that cheap. Similar NASA balloon cost $1 million. Since balloons are hard to steer, to be able to hit anything useful would require using guided glide bombs which are relatively cheap but not like dumb bombs. The cost is comparable to cruise missile.

Another problem is that it takes few days to week for balloons to cross the Pacific. Launch at start of war and it could be over by time arrive. Launch early and risk spoiling attack and maybe even causing war.

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