What are the odds of landing help desk job without any tech credentials? Making it past the resume automated culling I mean.
It's possible, if you can speak knowledgeably about computers and know how to troubleshoot, build, or fix them. If you know how to troubleshoot a "no video condition on a pc" and can speak from memory about the troubleshooting path you would take. You have better odds than someone who can't.
IT support -> write useful internal tools -> SWE is a path I have seen many take. The first role would be best for a small/medium company that hires based on what you can do rather than your credentials. Has to be big enough for a FTE but small enough that the interview isn’t too barricaded by Hr.