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Comment by kerpotgh | Hacker News Reader

Holy shit! This is a recession? It’s the nicest recession I’ve ever seen.

Their advertising revenue dropped by $2.2 billion. The economy is hurting someone.

Almost no one is predicting any more than a mild recession if one even happens. Labor markets may be loosening a bit but ultimately this is all in the fed's court.

At this point, markets have figured out the song and dance. The fed issues an extremely hawkish statement. Then it hikes rates a bit less than last time while saying it has a commitment to keep their finger on things till inflation comes down. Markets react in a tempered manner. Repeat.

The layoffs truly suck for those affected by them. But it's not looking at all like 2008 let alone 2000. The businesses are not fundamentally in bad shape. They just bloated and will have moderately underwhelming earnings for a few quarters.

It's not. GDP grew in Q4.

And before that US GDP was down for two quarters in a row meeting the basic requirements of a recession even outside of rising inflation last year.

Companies also do not wait for an institution or someone else to tell them it is officially too late to prepare for one.

They prepare in advance rather than wait for years afterwards.

Nominally.

I wouldn't say 2.9% is nominal. Remember this is real GDP so it accounts for inflation.

Yes real GDP grew by 2.9% annualized from Jul 1 to Oct 1: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=Zsj4

Assuming you trust the CPI, sure.

Well... If you don't trust the system you're discussing it is honest to say that up front so people know how to have a conversation with you. Otherwise it comes across as rude.

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