Metal-rich, potato-shaped asteroid could be worth $10 quintillion (2022)
smithsonianmag.com
smithsonianmag.com
A controversial scientist with terminal cancer, played by Tom Hanks, stays behind above the earth to steer it further into orbit, then arms the detonation device just as the alien frees itself.
What emerges is a hauntingly beautiful and stunningly complex being. Hanks, certain of his death but filled with wonder, leaves his shuttle in his space suit to get a closer look at the being.
Just before the nuclear device explodes, Hanks connects with the being through light and begins to smile and cry with joy and regret. Then everything explodes. Nothing of the alien or Hanks remains, just bits of asteroid.
Ten years later, listening stations on earth begin to pick up a strange pattern of signals from space.
You fill in the rest:
-DNA code of Hanks that somehow reveals the cure for cancer.
-Morse code for the opening lyrics to the song Age of Aquarius
-Math formulas and theories that revolutionize science
-Morse code for "They know about Mickey Mouse. I'm not sure how, but they keep asking me about him."
Like oceans contain lot of gold, like 700 trillion worth. Now, there is slight problem that getting it out of water cost more. And same is probably for any medium term future true with asteroids.
I'm not so sure... The valuation seems a bit absurd to me. Using the same valuation system, what would be the valuation of Earth?
Cost of extraction and transportation is still (and always) a consideration. Would the asteroid be significantly cheaper to mine than metal-rich veins on Earth? Even given hypothetical technology, could we not apply the same technologies to mine the same metals here on Earth cheaper?
I don't know the answers to these questions, but they're interesting to ponder.
Google says Earth is worth $5 quadrillion.
So this one asteroid is four or five orders of magnitude more valuable than everything we’ve ever known
The article is from last year. The launch was delayed and has not yet taken place:
> In June 2022 NASA found that the late delivery of the testing equipment and flight software for the Psyche spacecraft did not give them enough time to complete the required testing, and decided to delay the launch, with future windows available in 2023 and 2024 to rendezvous with the asteroid in 2029 and 2030, respectively.[18]
> On October 28, 2022, NASA announced that Psyche was targeting a launch period opening on October 10, 2023, which would correspond with an arrival at the asteroid in August 2029.
I looked in vain in this article for any skepticism about their figure. Like, what would actually happen to prices if there were suddenly that much nickel available.
But no. That would detract from the click-bait value.
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Rip_Van_Winkle_Caper
[2] at 1:26, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oj5Dfd0U0E8, from Wikipedia: "The futuristic car carrying the couple who find the dying Farwell is a leftover prop, somewhat modified, from MGM's 1956 film Forbidden Planet{[3]}.[citation needed]"
[3] Forbidden Planet, also one of the greats, in the 23rd century, https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0049223/?ref_=fn_al_tt_1
To anyone who’s interested in this comment thread: check out the episode.
edit: you meant don’t look up, i was thinking sci-fi for some reason
2. Based on the guess, the reporter probably took the suspected mass and multiplied it with the current price of the suspected metals. This is what the Business Insider "journalist" did, which she cites regarding another asteroid.
3. Yes, none of this makes any sense, especially the part where we assign a dollar value to something completely out of reach and which if we did somehow get to, would certainly affect the current price, by A LOT. But hey!
4. Don't be a conspiracy theorist. Believe all science reporting!
As you said, nonsense.
Last year (I think) huge volcano erupted violently in the middle of pacific ocean and we don't really feel it in any way.
Dropping a rock from orbit and dissipating orbital speed plus potenial energy of the rock in the atmosphere and in the ocean might be perfectly reasonable for the sizes of the rocks we might even dream of controlling
Also, it has to be decelerated when coming into Earth's influence. If it the thrusters were to break down or something go wrong -- bam, Earth gone.
I think apocalyptic asteroids are that dangerous mostly because of high speeds. It's mv^2 after all.
https://www.activewild.com/how-big-was-the-asteroid-that-kil...
Quite fast given that ISS which is very close to Earth needs to do 17100mph to keep this small orbit.
But you are right 140 miles across would be deadly in any scenario.
Because, of course the next question is "where are you going to find all of that fuel" and I'm guessing that the answer is probably something like "a 40-mile asteroid rich in hydrocarbons."
Are asteroid ores easier to extract chemically than terrestrial ores?
I think I read somewhere that in order to mine asteroids we'll need to have major space based industry first.
To even simplify scenario, take a empty infinite size warehouse on Earth. What would be all the processes and machinery we would need for some sort of output from even refined raw materials.
Who cares? You're deliberately being obtuse, yes, we know how Econ 101 works.
The idea, at least in my mind, is to open up things that were limited by the resources that it could provide that were previously scarce. More manufacturing of things with needs for precious metals, more building with iron and that iron refined into steel, more overall resources available to make shit with etc etc. I would think the results of that would be worth far more than the nominal value.
A contrary opinion would be that Gold isn't exactly scare on this planet and we keep mining more of it and it isn't exactly cheap. As of this writing it the spot price is $1,922.40 USD.
Or if you disagree with the fraction consider a different fraction like 1000th, 10000th etc... At some point it could both make someone extremely wealthy and not immediately destroy the price (as supply increases and the price decreases, we'll also find new uses like nickel based paper towels or studs for homes)
Edit: ok joke's on me that I missed some important details like diameter and velocity. But the general point applies -- meter the release into the market to not completely saturate the market or depreciate the value.
ohhh, you meant I should have stopped it from entering Earth's atmosphere at 0.1c?
There’s no way you could bring the entire thing down to Earth without causing another extinction event. You’d have to keep it in orbit and at that point it’s anybody’s game.
The amount of gold mined in all of human history is about 205,000 tons. Compare this to about 2,000,000,000 tons of steel produced each year.
It is more complicated than this because the 2 billion tons is for crude steel. Recycled steel is probably generally being used in more refined steel products wherein it likely makes up a much higher percentage.
Of course, aluminum today is a dirt cheap metal that's found almost everywhere and in everything. All it took to bring the cost down drastically was figuring out a new refining process and flooding the market with new supply.
But I'm sure someone once analyzed soil samples, discovered that nearly 8% of the earth is made of alumnium, and theoretically, all that alumnium was worth XX quadrillion dollars.
0: https://www.tms.org/pubs/journals/JOM/9511/Binczewski-9511.h...
step 1) acquire the stockpile of metals
step 2) set prices just low enough you drive all current mines/producers out of business
step 3) quadruple the prices. It'll take people a long time to spin up new mines and refineries. For bonus profits spend some of your monopoly money on lobbying/regulation.
step 4) goto step 2
For real world examples, look at Mansa Musa’s pilgrimage
(0) https://www.nationalgeographic.org/encyclopedia/mansa-musa-m... (1)
Example would be textiles in the Industrial Revolution.
> If the asteroid’s riches are confirmed, it may be worth more than the global economy at $10 quintillion.
But of course that "may be" is carrying a lot of weight. The actual value would be much closer to zero when you think about it for more than a second. The "market price" for these metals would plummet after introducing a massive glut like this.
This is someone taking the "if someone's willing to buy an apple for $100 and I have a billion apples, then my apples must be worth $100 billion"-crypto math to space.
What they are saying is that there's not only more iron there than we use in Earth's economy but if we priced this additional iron at current prices that additional iron would be worth more than everything else we do here on this planet economically.
If you want the worth of something you do the integral of the demand curve, not the marginal price times your volume for sale.
This is the point of my apple example; once you’ve sold the first of your billion apples, the next apple you sell will earn you slightly less, until either your supply or the demand curve runs out.