This viewpoint renders the word "risk" meaningless. Something isn't a risk if there isn't some sequence of events that can cause it to happen.

And even if we lived in a deterministic universe, we don't have perfect information, so we cannot know the outcome of big events. Our best way to deal with them is to model things probabilistically based on what we do know and make our choices based on based on risk/reward.

I'm also not sure where you're getting the phrase "tail risk", I didn't even know what the term meant much less used it.