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Comment by oblio | Hacker News Reader

Russia or similar invaders didn't roll a "single S-400" into Ukraine. Nor would they in any similar invasion.

They'd bring in the whole shebang.

So my rhetorical question to you would be: why would you not buy a system with a reduced radar footprint, advanced avionics, advanced weapons control systems and advanced networking? Even if it's only for defensive purposes.

Heck, even if it's for flying strictly over territory you control. Advanced radars cover hundreds of kilometers as do modern anti-air missiles. They can shoot you down without even going near their direct airspace. That's what Russia is doing right now, they're taking down Ukrainian aircraft at no risk to themselves launching a bunch of R37s from deep in their territory (50-100km) from Migs Ukraine can't reach or even see.

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I'm not disagreeing at all.

It's just that being in with NATO is more important than equipment case in point Ukraine.

F-35 is designed for ingress into densely covered enemy territory.

The stealth allows more flexibility in approach it stops jets being scrambled along the route, it stops assets being moved in to hangars and otherwise hidden.

It means you're less likely to be flying through a valley of manpads. Who were all warned of impending jets coming in.

Flying into an enemy carrier group with airborne radar being pinged from every direction.

These are the missions Israel runs against Iran and Syria (not the carrier group) or the US may theoretically run against Russia in a world war situation (during conflict it's likely the US would be protected by heavy ECW from growlers not just stealth).

This is not within Finland's likely missions unless it's acting with NATO.

If you don't need that then there are many cheaper, easier to run alternatives.

So does Finland want an F-35 or a bunch of gripen and hundreds of manpads and ATGMs?

Ukraine has repelled Russia very effectively with just manpads, ATGMs and NATO intelligence.

All things being equal that would be preferable. If buying US weapons NATO becomes more protective then the calculus changes.

> This is not within Finland's likely missions unless it's acting with NATO.

It's a lot less likely now, but Russia could have very well tried the exact same thing against Finland, in which case Finland for sure would have been running the exact same missions against Russia. Suppress Russian threats in Russia itself to protect Finnish territory.

And Finland isn't in NATO, yet. Though their luck will probably be that Russia won't be able to do anything else major for at least a decade.

> Ukraine has repelled Russia very effectively with just manpads, ATGMs and NATO intelligence.

Ukraine has effectively repelled Russia because it's the second biggest military in Europe after Russia, and second strongest air defence in Europe after Russia.

This is the sole biggest factor without saying which, everything else is meaningless.

I'm not so convinced.

It's mainly because the attrition rate should have entirely depleted the S-300 system in the first 6 months (2-3 per week during the main phase).

Ukraine is a big country and there were loads of missile attacks to defend. It's very unlikely it was able to move S-300s continuously into needed areas compared with manpads.

Yet it would have been a PR disaster if NATO admitted to supplying weapons to Ukraine before the invasion started. So MANPADs are implied to have sprouted like mushrooms in Ukraine...

Supposedly RAF flew many C-17s of light weapons into Ukraine immediately before the invasion.

There were even news articles with pictures.

There are thousands of S300*, and Buk missiles in stockpiles of both Ukraine, and Russia.

Enough to shoot down each other's airforce a few times over.

MANPADs have intercepted a few missiles, but are not a tool for intercepting missiles.

> Yet it would have been a PR disaster if NATO admitted to supplying weapons to Ukraine before the invasion started. So MANPADs are implied to have sprouted like mushrooms in Ukraine..

You can’t be serious, NATO openly delivered MANPADs and vast amounts of other munitions before the war started https://www.armyrecognition.com/defense_news_february_2022_g...

https://www.dw.com/en/russia-ukraine-crisis-who-supplies-wea...

Maybe try to learn some basic facts about the subject before commenting?

>Ukraine has repelled Russia very effectively with just manpads, ATGMs and NATO intelligence.

MANPADs are nice to have, but it's Ukraine's own Soviet air defense equipment which is keeping Russian aviation at bay.

The focus on MANPADs really makes it hard to take anything else you say seriously. It's the 100+ active S300 batteries Ukraine had that made all the difference, not MANPADs.

Would they even bring it in? They could just move it closer to the border and cover alot of airpsace like that.

They try to put them anywhere they can, as close as they can get. Numbers and distance seem to matter. They might also be counting on losing a number of them.

It's also rumoured that some large portion of Russian losses are due to their own anti air. So coordination is difficult.

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