D.C. free bus bill becomes law as zero-fare transit systems take off
cnbc.com
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Meanwhile, the richest people, who are benefitting from the availability and mobility of labour, can afford to move around in luxury vehicles (sometimes driven by others).
This is a negative feedback loop which renders public transportation increasingly dangerous and decreasingly effective.
If you want to "fund" public transport, you should do it through increased taxation on cars (especially luxury cars) and air travel (in particular private aviation), but ultimately public money doesn't necessarily need to be entirely offset through taxation if it's federally supplied.
There would be a lot to be said for a federal infrastructure spending bill that targeted uniformly effective and free public transport.
1) Not allowing anyone to be destitute and;
2) Also providing free and comprehensive mental health care
Both issues are important, but in the context of this article one must ask, "what is best for the majority of public transit users?". It's certainly possible that a $2 rate improves quality or security meaningful ways.
The problem of "sketchy homeless and mentally ill people" is large enough that I personally prefer cycling over public transport when possible.
Sure, but if the objection to "public transport should be free" is "then there will be a bunch of scary homeless people there" shouldn't be "let's charge enough so they can't ride the bus" it should be "hey let's fix that too!"
We can fix two things. More even!
Now is when I'd like to remind you that you share spaces with mentally ill folks every single day and you don't notice a thing: A lot of destitute folks are disable and being destitute shouldn't mean that you have to have a lonely and hard life. And I'd also like to mention that you can both be destitute and have a job. You can be mentally ill and have a job.
Pick the right bus line in Vancouver. You will notice mentally ill, violent people, and it certainly discourages the public from using public transit. Now, will waiving a $2 fee change this meaningfully? Hard to day. But it's not helpful to ignore the problem.
2. One line, a city, or a few riders isn't an issue with busses, be they with or without fares. That's society not taking care of folks. Plus, it would be ridiculous to think that it would be like this everywhere.. because it isn't like this everywhere now.
And of course folks should have housing and treatment. The reason we have issues in some areas is because they aren't doing that. It doesn't meant that we shouldn't provide public transport to everyone that wants it, though. It is quite possible to do more than one thing at the same time.
They are not going to inpatient treatment and housing voluntarily on the bus. Is the guy screaming obscenities at the air even aware of all his treatment options? They often need to be coerced, so trained individuals need to bring them there humanely.
If they are just having bad luck, they will mostly likely need their belongings brought with them. Both these things point to van transportation with trained drivers. Not the city bus.
You might spend some time thinking through the problem rather than casting aspersions. But one of those is easier, isn't it?
I don't think public transport should be entirely free just from both an economic but also ecological POV: despite how much more efficient public transport is on a per-user basis, it's still not free (both environmentally and economically). There's a recent report by a large public transportation company in Germany which illustrates some of the problems: During the pandemic Germany introduced the "€9-ticket", a ticket that, as the name suggests, costs only €9 and gave you public transportation for ~3 Months (Let's call that free for the sake of argument). After the end of that program there was a report by (I think) the state Hesse that looked at how public transportation usage and car usage behaved. The result was that there was massively increased public transportation usage, but not a massive reduction in car usage. In effect (and from personal, anecdotal experience) free public transport lead to an increase in "fun drives" (e.g. to vacation destinations), but not a decrease in work related transportation.
One of the reasons might be that public transport usage is often fundamentally misunderstood. A significant number of people use a car, not because they want to, but because it is their only option: People living in cities already use public transport, while rural areas (and I count everything with <25k citizens as "rural") often don't have sufficient public transport. You could start expanding public transport in those rural areas to match the one in cities, but that by itself would be an environmental catastrophe: Public transport is good in high density scenarios, where, even in the dead of night, buses or subways are relatively well filled. However, increasing public transport in low density areas will always have "dead times" in which few people transit. The issue is that you still need to send e.g. buses in those low utilization timezones since otherwise people still need a car as they cannot rely on public transport to fulfill their needs. If you want people to be able to rely on getting from A to B without a car, this problem is uncircumventable: You need a high density population that fills your public transport for it to be sensible.
For example, despite living in Germany (which overall has good public transportation) I couldn't travel from the close city (~20min drive) home on any weekday past 10:00PM. That is despite the fact I still live in a town of ~20k people. I don't even fault the people that made the decision not to drive busses here: If I drive in that 10:00PM bus, it's consistently half empty (or worse: I've also been in that bus with only 2-3 others, including the driver)!
The solution isn't to tax cars to high heavens, as that decreases the likelihood of people moving outside of cities. Too many people inside cities yields its own share of well-known problems, like high rent prices due to high demand for a, by definition, limited amount of space (density = people/area).
I think the solution for this is much simpler: Specifically subsidize work related transportation by giving people money proportional to the maximal transportation costs (which usually will be a car). This prevents subsidizing "fun drives", while also encouraging people to use public transport when available. This money can be clawed back from employers, which also encourages them to offer e.g. work-from-home (which from both an environmental and congestion POV trumps even public transport). Since transportation is now well supported via taxes, we can use the saved money to increase public transport where it is logical: people living outside of high density areas _should_ use a car because building a public transport system has too high of an environmental overhead (though stuff like ample parking should exist outside of any high density area to allow for a switch from car->public transport)
Stuff like luxury cars or private air travel obviously should also be taxed, but not because it's transportation, but because highly expensive items for the 1% should be taxed in _any_ case (e.g. an idea would be a progressive VAT which is low for cheap items like food, but high for expensive items like private jets).
The silver line snakes way out through Virginia, for a pretty (very) small fraction of riders every day & a handful of people going to IAD (Dulles) airport. The Purple Line has started snaking around the beltway, at least for the northern MD parts that were still willing to fund & try, but has dragged on, slated originally to open last year & still at least 4 years out & crazy over cost. It seems unlikely to make a sea change difference, but perhaps!! We want to believe, maybe after a lot of time. DC started building a new streetcar network, and seemingly gave up after realizing fixed infrastructure like this was insanely expensive and prone to constant blockage.
Most American cities highly subsidize transit. Going to fully subsidized is not really a major hurt. It's a kind of easy action we can just do, for little real pain. Much less pain than many of the expansive would be micro-mega-projects, that probably in most cases will be massive budget items with decades of debt, with only very very very long term development benefits. In DC, few of our transit systems have capacity problems. Our citywide network is quite good, very well connnected whatever direction you want in most places.
The proposal that we add more busses, that we build new lines: it feels wildly out of touch, like it's prescribing someone elses solution, that doesn't make sense here. This is a good sensible next step for DC, to make what we have work much better for many, especially those who can most benefit.
Setting that aside, this legislation also includes $10m/year in funding to further enhance bus service:
- Creating new routes
- Extending hours (all night service on key routes)
- Shortening headways between buses
I invite you to think about the amount of time wasted by people on ticketing. The queues at ticket booths, people spending time researching what pass they want. Seniors spending time asking for their special card so they can get it cheaper or for free.
The amounts spent on advertising to reduce gate jumpers, or to tell people about the latest formula or whatever.
The massive amounts spent on RND of new techniques to make going through the gates quicker because it’s an annoying experience. The bad deals made with payments companies to be able to take card payments directly at the gate.
Really it’s insane. When you start believing that public transit should be free because it’s infrastructure (there’s a lot of reasons why it should be free), you start actually seeing just how much money and time would be saved. Then it clicks.
Looking at 2020 ratios in isolation doesn't give a very complete picture.
https://2019.stib-activityreports.brussels/en/a-high-perform...
The STIB is the Brussels metro & bus company.
As you can see, subsidies represent 54 percent of the STIB's revenue: Subsidies of almost 400M EUR. The figure you want is "traffic revenue": 225M EUR.
So now, the calculation is: Is ticketing and enforcement worth 225M EUR / year in Brussels? The answer on paper is yes, because we're not taking into account the costs I outlined above. Breaking them down by line item is impossible because the figures are not public, but going by related figures, it's not looking good for proponents of ticketing.
Let's just go with sibling comment's ticket gate price: 250MM EUR. They are replaced every 8 years roughly. So, 31MM / year. Now down to under half of the subsidies.
Direct costs: Ticket enforcement staff + equipment, gate maintenance, automated sales booths + maintenance + software, in-person sales booths + maintenance, payment processing fees, contract costs
Externalities: Ticket littering + cleanup costs, inefficient purchases by customers (bought the wrong tickets/too many)
Time costs: Validation time, gate bottlenecking (especially at peak time), reduced opportunities for those who can't afford tickets...
----
Okay, so let's say you do all those calculations, and you end up finding out they're all zero (they won't be, but w/e), and actually you're still making decent tax revenue from public transit (0.2bn eur). What is the lesson here?
The lesson, is that all these are insignificant compared to the investment that same city wants to make into public transport: 5.2 bn EUR. (ref. https://www.stib-mivb.be/article.html?l=en&_guid=0035aa30-f3...). Or compared to the costs of road maintenance (50-100bn EUR / year in BE). Or, or ...
Make no mistake, removing costs would increase ridership which would increase costs. But it would also increase national productivity output which increases tax revenue. This is not a simple calculation to run, and my girlfriend is using my parallel universe simulator right now so I can't check. Public transit should be free (AS IN PAID BY TAXES), because it's the right thing to do, when the roads are financed the same way.
This is the cost of free public transit.
Complaints like yours ring hollow when solutions have already been devised and in use for a long time. If other places don't use these solutions because of NIH or whatever, that doesn't mean these complaints are valid.
You know Tokyo is the most populated city in the world, right. The solutions in place there will HAVE to be different to anywhere else on the planet.
It's like a Google engineer talking about how some random SaaS's complaints about Heroku or whatever are "hollow, because here at Google we use solution X and it works fine and we have more traffic than anywhere on the planet so obviously solution X is best".
Not saying whatever solution it is you're using isn't good, or couldn't fit in another city. But Japanese customs, payment systems, administrations, densities, and incomes are vastly different to the rest of the world's. The numbers to justify free transit will be very different for you.
Wrong. The laws of physics are not different in other places. The complaint was that it takes too long to collect fares. This is factually untrue, and Japan's system (it uses the same system nationwide) proves this. It's a solved problem. In other places, it can be even better because it's less populated (crowded) than here.
>It's like a Google engineer talking about how some random SaaS's complaints
No, it's really not. It's like someone complaining that encoding WAVs into Oggs is too big a problem, and someone else saying, "no, all you have to do is download libogg and libvorbis and oggtools and use it." The solution is right there, you just need to use it.
>But Japanese customs, payment systems,
The custom of swiping a card to go through a turnstile is too foreign to you?
The card is a stored-value card. You put money on the card, and spend it as you go through the turnstiles. You don't even need a payment system: I charge mine with cash.
Edit: just to add to this, there are other transit systems that use this same technology, such as in China.
There are 2 smaller services that do enforce fares, and unsurprisingly they don’t have nearly as many problems.
Fair evasion is rampant here, both on the metro and buses. At least people won't have to bother with even the theatre of pretending to care about it on the buses now.
My wife refuses to take any kind of public transportation alone.
True, with emphasis on fully.
> In many cases, the systems to collect fares end up costing hundreds of millions of dollars.
That figure seems extremely high for "many cases," but the exact figure isn't really material.
> These costs are never made back. It makes sense to make it free.
No, that's just not true.
My local metro spent $17 million on fare collection to net $167 million in revenue (2019). It would have to cut $150 million in other service to go to free fares.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Farebox_recovery_ratio
In many parts of the developed world the ratio is 30% plus which can be an enormous amount of money. In Boston fare revenue is 500M .
Making things free would cause big issues for many of them as you say.
I know of places where pensioners (over 65yr olds) get it free but not universal.
There are pros and cons to this of course but overall: people who didn't take the buss before are not going to now all of a sudden.
Not a big fan of fares though, as somebody that’s dropped my wallet in the dark in the middle of the night in a sketchy part of town.
I suspect a lot would. Some public transit systems are shockingly expensive. And even price-insensitive people would benefit from increased ridership of price-sensitive people if it also led to improved service.
I'm sure there are people who would benefit from this, like those carpooling and relying on rides from friends and family, to those who wouldn't be able to afford to work in places that would otherwise require a car to commute to that they don't have, etc.
At least if you are going to call it bad, preface your opinion with what your reality is, and acknowledge your reality isn't necessarily universal.
The same can't be said about big city transit. Just look at the demographics of where homeless people flock to.
Aside from the other stuff you can probably picture, it's slow AF and takes longer to move between popular spots than drudging through traffic in a car or Uber.
Now making the Metro free... that would pique people's interest.
There's a good number of limited-stop bus routes that span some pretty long routes that would require much more cross-city metro riding, and serving many places the metro doesnt conveniently service at all. My feeling is generally the opposite of yours- actual urbanites are good at & love the buses, know some real handy convenient routes, and people further afield tend to only know & try the much simpler & more limited metrorail. DC just isnt that big; a handful of stops if you're going 2-4 miles is not really a concern.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fuel_taxes_in_the_United_Sta...
Public transit can be a remedy, but outside Manhattan I don't think any locale in the U.S. has remotely the density to make it truly viable at scale for the poor and working classes. Obviously public transit is critical for some poorer subgroups, but those groups tend to be the ones trapped in ghettos. To truly bridge the gap so public transit is a substitute for fuel subsidies would require an order of magnitude increase in the size and reach of our public transit networks, plus a dramatic shift in zoning to reduce the costs of housing in urbanized areas, plus a dramatic shift in geographical demographics. Note that poor and working classes will hold onto the white picket fence ideal for much longer than the middle classes. So you're dealing with very strong counter-veiling pressures when it comes to the groups you're attempting to help the most.
Chicken and egg. Density is built along transit because transit supports dense houses. Build transit, get density. Fail to build transit, get sprawl.
Building transit does not guarantee you get density. There are regulatory hurdles at play. In California, for example, cities will often be forced to up-zone the immediate couple of blocks around a station, but then everything else beyond that remains zoned for single-family housing, or at least zoned for far less density than the market could support.
Moreover, there's a time gap between when housing is built and when it becomes economically accessible lower down the income ladder. New housing is expensive, even absent regulatory hurdles, and affordability mandates can't magically change financial viability. New housing can have immediate effects on housing costs, but indirectly on the costs of older housing; and on a regional scale it takes awhile to incentivize people at the periphery to move inward.
Long-story short, to get from the current equilibrium to a more optimal equilibrium requires careful, coordinated policy management across decades. We could and should start, but we live in an age where if people don't see results in 6 weeks, they complain; and even when there are results, they still complain. They complain, vote people out, and vote in new people that promise more immediate results, but invariably can't deliver meaningful results.[1] I mean, this is how democracy has always worked, but the public reactions are far more compressed, while the necessary time spans for effective change are no shorter than they were before.
[1] Case in point: rather than improving public transit, the popular panacea du jure is free fares. Free fares will not improve public transit in any way shape or form; if anything, they'll hasten its degradation. They'll make it cheaper for some, but for the most part not those at the bottom of the ladder, who already enjoy free transit. These gimmicks are popular because they're immediate.
https://electrek.co/2022/04/28/denvers-electric-bike-rebates...
https://electrek.co/2022/05/03/vermont-launches-the-first-st...
https://electrek.co/2022/11/29/another-us-state-adds-electri...
https://www.siliconvalleypower.com/home/showpublisheddocumen...
Edit: And from a quick look, that’s high for the US. The average seems closer to 10-15%.
https://www.transit.dot.gov/sites/fta.dot.gov/files/2020-11/...
(NY’s 54% number is probably because of mixing of different fareboxes: recovery is much higher on the LIRR and MNRR than it is on the city buses and subways.)
- MTA heavy rail was 70%.
- Commuter rail was 55%.
- Commuter bus was 32%.
- BRT and Bus was 30%.
[1] https://www.enotrans.org/article/the-mass-transit-fiscal-cli...
Nationally in millions, Bus: (Fare Revenues 3,778) / (Operating expenses 16,110.4 + Use of capital funds 3,0444.7) = 19.7%. They also break out Bus Rapid Transit which is much worse 16.1 / (166.1 + 51.7) = 7.4% as is Commuter Bus 57.9 / (597.7 + 170.7) = 7.5%
Washington Metropolitan Area Transit Authority, Bus: $124,011,141 / ( $731,946,008 + $182,850,687 ) = 13.6%
So for WMATA forgoing Bus revenue wouldn’t move the needle very much.
PS: And that’s ignoring the overhead of collecting fairs. Not only are some operating expenses devoted to collecting fairs, busses can move faster if people aren’t stopping and fiddling with payment.
Compare a line of 20 people all try to get on and swipe a metro card vs a line of 20 people all trying to get on. Even collage busses where all people need to do is show school ID you still get people in line who suddenly can’t find their ID.
I agree farebox recovery rate is not something to optimize for. Public services don't lose money, they cost money. Nobody talks about how much the army loses.
However. The choice was between (a) eliminating the $666M farebox recovery and taking it out of the municipal budget vs. adding $666M more funding without eliminating the farebox take. I strongly suspect the municipality would be far better served by the latter.
The former plan doesn't address what people actually want. They want shorter headways. Instead they got the same headways, but cheaper.
People aren't avoiding transit because it's too expensive. They're avoiding transit because it doesn't come often enough, it doesn't go where they need and stops running too early. It doesn't meet their needs. The average American spends $11,000 on a new car per year [2], or almost a half million dollars lifetime. If service was better, they wouldn't have to. This plan doesn't make service better. So, they still need their real cost center: their car.
[1] https://www.enotrans.org/article/the-mass-transit-fiscal-cli...
[2] https://newsroom.aaa.com/2022/08/annual-cost-of-new-car-owne...
I mean, I do. But that boils mostly down to me perceiving more value in a robust public transit network than in a bloated MIC.
Of course there will be outliers, but owning a car is a massive money sinkhole and a disproportionate burden on the poor.
The average car insurance payment alone is $136 (and significantly more for those with 'bad credit' - i.e. the poor). Gas is another $150-200 per month. That's almost $4000 per year right there.
The average monthly transit pass in the US is $83. [1, 2]
[1] https://www.statista.com/statistics/990891/us-average-monthl...
[2] https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/insurance/how-much-is-car...
What you see as a small component of transit systems budgets, they seem to see as a quite significant part of their budget.
I think this is going to lead to worst outcomes, and a worse funded system.
"Metro estimates it lost $40 million due to fair evasion in the 2022 fiscal year."
$40 million is not "quite small"
https://www.nbcwashington.com/news/local/transportation/metr...
And 40 million is not a small number for a person, but for a city with a budget of about 20 billion it’s not a very large number at all - especially when viewed in comparison with spending on roads and bridges. You don’t have to spend billions on another road bridge if everyone is taking the train
Also, WMATA's budget is separate from the city...
You could argue that it's all "just funding," but fares can help to prioritize work which will help collect the most future fares, creating the largest positive impact for end users.
I work in the longwood area of Boston. There are private bus routes that make up for the lack of good public transit for the area. It’s also free with Id.
https://www.longwoodcollective.org/lma-shuttles/shuttle-rout...
For context the grad student service fee is around 300-700USD per semester depending on how many credits you take.
So by no means is it free. I do agree with you though that universal access to transit makes it a lot more pleasant and speeds up boarding quite substantially.
Apparently they do charge some routes, but the ones operated by umass now are free to students.
They’d actually train students to drive the buses. ( still do apparently) an interesting skill to leave university with. https://www.umass.edu/transportation/now-hiring)
Umass was interesting. The fees were how they kept money at the school as tuition went to the states general fund. Sports were always covered by those fees which was free basketball tickets (though it was a lottery when I left, but I worked at the paper and would take pictues..)
It was a while ago that I was there (last century..)
This is just a rule they've made: You can have both fares and boarding at any door in the bus. I know this because this is how the busses in Trondheim, Norway are. You can't always pay on the bus, so everyone has their ticket before they get on. They have spot checks by folks that aren't bus drivers. Does it cause some folks to risk not buying a ticket? Yes, but it is obviously not worth doing more checks.
Except it doesn't have to be zero-sum. A government can simply decide it wants to prioritize public transportation. The funding isn't inherently zero-sum.
It is entirely the first reason - mass transit is not cheap and fares help alleviate the burden of the subsidy.
I don’t think the cost of issuing tickets and enforcement is that significant compared to how much money collecting fares brings in. It certainly doesn’t seem like something that is done at a loss or something that barely breaks even.
Almost no public transit system has a farebox recovery rate even close to 100%. For municipal service (ie, excluding specialty transit), even 50% is almost unheard-of in the US, and only a few systems in Europe exceed 50% as well. In the US, the better transit systems have a farebox recovery ratio of 25% or less. In other words, over 75% is already funded by taxes, not by point-of-service.
Enforcement is a huge cost. In fact, in NY, the government has decided to spend increasing amounts of money over the last five years on police presence to combat "fare evasion", even though their own numbers show that the amount of money they are "losing" to fare evasion is less than the amount they have decided to spend on the additional police dedicated specifically to fare evasion.
So yes, it's a political, choice, not a fiscally rational one.
Sort of, not exactly. Asian countries typically report their metrics differently, so they look much higher, but it's because they have non-fare sources of revenue that provide a massive source of income which they combine with their fare revenue for reporting purposes. So it's not an apples to apples comparison.
I frankly wouldn’t mind paying more for public transit, but making it the crux feels roughly analogous to corporate ”greenwashing”: push the responsibility onto individuals and we can conveniently ignore the structural changes needed to make public transit systems grow and thrive.
Sources: https://slate.com/business/2021/06/free-transit-is-not-a-gre... https://transitcenter.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/TC_Whos...
https://www.sbb.ch/en/travelcards-and-tickets/railpasses/ga....
Edit: Another example is Prague, which is around $1.
I can’t think of many; the first that comes to mind is Portland’s MAX, which is $2.50, has a smaller network with longer headways, and services a much larger metropolitan area as justification for its existence.
I live in Helsinki and spent a lot of time last year in Tallinn - the ‘transit is free in Europe’ thing is very much an exception rather than a rule.
I think there's also free public travel for tourists with cars if they park their car (in certain places or under certain circumstances).
In which European capital cities bus fairs are free?
Haven't heard of any others, though.
This is not necessarily true. If reducing fares increases ridership it may allow a strong case to be made for increasing the system funding.
The potential peril is that compared to the counterfactual of spending this money on improved service, free fares may attract few new riders or fail to generate additional political capital, or even lead to reduced funding if transit starts to be seen as a welfare expenditure rather than a system for everyone that pays for itself to some degree.
Very few people commute via bus in DC. I rarely did it because often traffic would make it take a long time even though I lived in the district.
Proof of fare is better than having transit employees be the enforcers. Free is even better, theoretically.
But be wary, transit in DC may turn into moving homeless encampment as there is no real way to tell someone they can't stay on the bus all day
We got him there in the end, mostly due to the enduring support of his partner.
My lesson from that was that, with the right support, and a bit of patience, people can get the help they need.
Takes a bit of time though. I think in the vast majority of cases if we offer a job to anyone who wants one at a socially inclusive minimum wage doing work in their community, in addition to stable housing, within a few years they'll be doing better, and within a generation the negative impacts of involuntary unemployment and homelessness will be a relic of the past.
http://google.com/search?q=dc+bus+driver+death
There are very very few incidents of bus drivers dying in DC. I would highly recommend not taking this fear-instilling anecdote as a real sign of what is.
I'm not saying to disregard this account, give it the benefit of a doubt, but it also is very new, and has had a pretty contentious first steps. I too am pretty contentious here & there my years, and I'm not at all saying to disregard one another. But this kind of high-brand FUD rather frustates me, & I feel like should set us on guard: it goes deeply to an emotional vulnerability we all have, quickly, rapidly. I genuinely want to believe this event here is not a complete fabrication. But the only bus driver gun-death I can find is linked to the 2002 DC sniper attacks. That this new account demonstrates a particular bias, from what I have seen, adds to my hestiancy to take this as real. Again, I very very much do not want to say to disregard, I do not want to attack the person, but this claim seems fundamentally suspect, & the history seems at least a bit murky, and I'd say this comment deserves caution & question, rather than acceptance.
We have some fairly notorious bus lines in DC. But like, overall, the actual scary shit nearly never ever happens. Oh look, some loud people are drinking on the 7X's or the X2 again. Generally it's not really a real problem & we kind of ignore it & eventually they get off, or, if they start causing a scene, the bus driver asks them to leave, and after a couple dozen seconds they get the point that this is not really winnable & wander off. I've seen some people get mad at each other, but someone gets off & the drama dissipates. The notoriety is more about characters & ridiculousness, thank heavens, and rarely about real actual in fact for real problems. Those, from what I have heard in my many years in DC, have been pretty few.
I'm not opposed to gun control & the general idea here, not at all. And I'm more than willing to accept evidence that guns really are a bit of a menace & problem with some real & regular reocurrence on this transit system I use. Certainly there are problems beyond people getting killed, but so far my attempts to dig up real data to show meaningful problems has surfaced nothing (and no one else has pointed to verifiable problems either). So far it feels- to me- that this is barking up the wrong tree. That there isn't strong data portraying a real transit-gun problem; there isn't evidence, and there isn't actually a problem here, and that this is an imposition of concerns that have an incredibly miniscule factor in the reality of this system. I really want to support the questioning of guns, which I broadly disagree with, but right now I really don't see the data nor hear the anecdotes for this being a real/regular concern. These emotions being projected read to me like anti-urban heresay, which I want to believe/take as real, but am not finding evidence of.
Also note so far our metro/subway system has a gun ban. Penalties for fucking with DC metro or DC busses in any moderately significant way is pretty severe, and the city will spend pretty significant effort to track shit down if stuff does go bad, it feels like, from the every couple years drama that makes our local digital rags.
Worth noting of course that the bans & commensurate penalties/enforcement are under semi-regular legal threat, like a recent challenge here (https://dcist.com/story/23/01/04/judge-tosses-out-lawsuit-se...). It feels like it's all gotten especially wild since the latest Supreme Court took the activist position of overturning New York's requirement to have a license to conceal carry. But so far, a number of rulings have kept various DC laws & protections intact.