Exxon scientists forecast climate change in the 1970s. What if we acted then?
techxplore.com
techxplore.com
If we acted then we would be talking about getting to net zero by 2125, instead of 2050, in order to prevent major climate change.
Instead, it’s already too late to prevent 1.5C.
https://amp.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/jan/23/no-chance-of...
Just one example, ten years ago solar panels were only financially viable (and needed subsidies at that) in the hottest places and low latitudes. Now Norway is putting up solar panels north of 60 degrees. The panels are more efficient but the primary factor is that the price has come way down.
Zinc Bromide batteries are still competitive today, nickel iron aren't far off. Pumped hydro is centuries old.
Yup. Even the folks I know who regularly post about the dangers of climate change still make frequent use of commercial flight to take unnecessary trips, usually vacations. If Exxon had published their findings in the 70's, the only thing it would have gotten us is a few more decades of hand-wringing and empty virtue signaling.
It's not. Having folks like Bernie Sanders or AOC telling us that we're all going to die unless we drastically cut our emissions is not very convincing when they themselves are gleefully hoping on a commercial jet 2 or more times a week. It's hard for people to take something seriously when the very people sounding the alarm aren't willing to make even the most basic sacrifices.
So you're correct that we can't meaningfully reduce emissions unless we force industry to change, but we're also not going to have much success advocating for those kinds of laws unless people are the top are willing to show a basic level of moral courage and leadership.
one year of coal power plants is about 10 years of all aviation
Global aviation (including domestic and international; passenger and freight) accounts for 2.5% of CO2 emissions and 3.5% of ‘effective radiative forcing’ (a closer measure of its impact on warming) [1].
which is low but NOT not "a rounding error" in the global context.The main reasons to look at aviation are that much of it slips through the fingers a it is "international" and not specific to single countries AND that the impact of aviation is rapidly increasing (albeit relatively stable against the qually rapid per capia overall emissions growth).
How we consume and how we consume per capita are the big picture questions to be addressed, both population numbers and per capita emissions are growing.
That said I think many agree that the old "why should I do anything when all these people are flying .." is a tedious lazy arguement.
If we made it go away 50 years ago, …
But hey, let’s keep talking about aviation
Check the IPCC reports, the margins of change require we address both, we are serious here after all and not simply hoping to greenwish inadequate changes magically solve everything.
It's not an argument against doing anything - we should definitely take action, but that's just not going to happen on a meaningful scale until it's too late. And that's because it's next to impossible to persuade people to make sacrifices when the person(s) asking/telling are themselves unwilling to make said sacrifices.
Low emission home heating= heatpump (air, ground, water)
Low emission ground travel= train, EV
Low emission flight= Zeppelin?
Would have been amazing for humanity.
That, coupled with the USofA leading the world in setting an example of reduced consumption would have had a large impact and given us today more breathing room and time to deploy better solutions.
Instead the action of the time was by the only people to really really take the forecasts seriously - the Koch brothers and other big oil investors.
Their coordinated actions amounted to sinking each and every public transport project no matter how small, to relentlessly promote Car==Freedom ! Individualism ! and every other PR notion of the think tanks to increase oil consumption and profits.
Not to mention funding decades of anti-AGW denial and downplaying.
Which explains a certain cynicism toward free market capitalists.
That's how I felt about this as a politically native teenager in 1988, 2 years after Chernobyl, in Sweden which got a pretty large portion of the fallout. We couldn't eat moose meat for a few years, but we survived anyway, somehow.
I had given up on people accepting nuclear power, but now it's finally getting really, really popular.
That'll flatten the curve on climate change, we'll finally be able to build nuclear power, and we'll solve world hunger.
Nuclear power is great until you have a large-scale conflict in the vicinity of one of your plants. Then, one stray missile and you've got an enormous nuclear disaster on your hands.
Wind was available and proven viable (albeit slightly more expensive in the first prototype than coal with no emissions controls) before the first fission reactor. The first practical (albeit misunderstood) PV array was 1906. A fraction of the investment put renewables further down the learning curve than nuclear.
If these myths about nuclear were true, then china would not be building a single gas or coal plant right now. They have all the ingredients present in the US mythical golden age. Uranium mined by enslaved indigenous people and colonised foreigners with no safety, a government capable of steamrolling any opposition, a massive highly experienced and underpaid construction workforce, many recently built reactors, no environmental regulation, pressure and funding from military interests for plutonium. And yet they are constructing more coal than nuclear and an order of magnitude more renewables than both combined. Why?
> I had given up on people accepting nuclear power, but now it's finally getting really, really popular
You're confusing your own shilling in an echo chamber for popularity. Just because the industry is astroturfing like crazy and now has the backing of the fossil fuel industry's propaganda machine doesn't make it popular.
>...the glacier is melting very fast and the amount of water coming from it is great. All these glaciers are receding rapidly and after a time will disappear.
https://www.hikinginglacier.com/grinnell-glacier-overlook.ht...