Most Adani shares continue bloodbath as Asia’s richest man loses $28B in a month
cnbc.com
cnbc.com
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/nov/29/still...
Start building factories and things, India.
The rhetoric in India over the last decade has successfully turned two communities (Hindus, Muslims) against each other to the point where public calls for violence and economic boycott are an everyday occurrence.
Hard to thrive in that environment
Also, how is the social strife actually reflecting itself?
The U.S. has a homicide rate that is more than double that of India. That indicates that the U.S. has far more social strife than India.
This is an excellent article
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/06/world/asia/india-region-m...
that talks about how India’s “social strife” in your terms has impacted its relationships with its neighbors. It’s useful, because (1) it has no data, which is quite typical of such articles, and (2) it uses the claim of social strife to predict a specific result. Worsening relationships with neighbors.
So we can test the results. And turns out, little more than a year later, India’s relationships with its neighbors (outside Pakistan, for obvious reasons), has never been better.
India, as an extremely young, diverse, and massive democracy has a lot of issues. Its very hard to see in actual numbers and data that those issues, including “social strife” have actually worsened over the past few years, beyond the impact of the pandemic.
Objectively speaking, regardless of your political leanings or religious views, I can’t see how leaving out 1/5th of your people will help everyone progress.
Oppression and economic prosperity are not mutually exclusive.
There are 1.3 billion people here. There are fewer incidents than what we see coming out of Portland OR alone. Or France and Sweden in December end.
The problem is that the current government does not listen to the West any more. Pfizer etc were shown the door. Russian gas imports have increased massively since April 2022.
There's an election coming up and the current government is likely to continue.
Hence the coordinated attacks by the BBC and this short-seller.
If you think that the current govenrment doesnt listen to the West then you dont really understand the balance of economic power in the world. Virtually all of the growth that India as achieved in the last 20 years comes from selling to the West. If we shut you down like we did with Russia, how long do you think your economy would last. India is only as big as the UK or France in economic terms, they have a good growth story, but dont think you're in anyway big enough to cause the west any problems or big enough to ignore what they want.
The self-entitled arrogance
We're much stronger now, economically and otherwise.
If attempted, see how it accelerates de-dollarisation. R5 has already been announced. The moment OPEC switches away from the dollar, the US economy is done for.
Just Brahman things
There will always be ups and downs, but I am extremely bullish on the Indian economy long term.
Hindenburgs' / Adani's are just games people play -- these will at best have short to medium term effects.
If you like the fundamentals, stick with long term investments.
I'm investing in the future, not for the past 3 decades. The Chinese economy is a debt ridden liability in 2023 with political uncertainty around President Xi and the real-estate bust.
India OTOH .. Please do unbiased research here. Most analysts estimate India to be the fastest growing large economy in 2023. A quick Google search will get you all the references here.
Manufacturing is leaving China towards India and Vietnam. Best of all, India is a self-consuming economy, they aren't reliant on exports, their growing population and potential for lifting people into the middle class alone will offer multiple decades of steady growth.
> Is it cultural? Perhaps.
Thanks for confirming your bias against Indian people and their culture. I have no incentive to debate with you anymore.
I'd guess in this accounting you also should take in consideration what Modi's government set in motion, a nationalistic movement that is enlarging ethnic-religious wedges, couple that with a still growing population coming under stress of resources shortage and it's a ticking time-bomb for civil wars and worse. On top of all the income inequality that is already pretty stark. How are you planning for the future with all of that? Because only economical metrics won't take you anywhere close to those factors which are definitely in the horizon for the next 10-20 years.
I don't agree with this reduction that with enough energy a country can achieve whatever, might work with "given infinite cheap energy" thought models but when you apply that to reality there are lots of pesky constraints...
It's not about optimism, it's about how you can make money until issues bite, and then how to divest to avoid the consequences... Actually now it makes into a very fitting and tragic parabole to what something like investing in the oil industry looks like :)
China remains a manufacturing powerhouse, while the likes of India, Vietnam etc. also make rapid strides. Just look at the trend towards "friendshoring" / "allyshoring" and the likes of Apple, Samsung etc. moving manufacturing from China to India / Vietnam.
Also, it helps in stable growth that India's population is growing and consumption is internal.
"Strawman arguments" such as war with China, ecological crisis etc. are redundant.
It goes without saying that if there's a major ecological crisis or a war, India could suffer. Any country could suffer with those conditions.
These are but one of many factors in a prediction model, and dare I say these aren't decisive factors.
It should be perfectly fine to hypothesise about the impact of cultures. I’m a German living in Sweden, and I can tell you that even though the cultures are very similar, there are differences that have a massive impact. Sweden is highly digital, Germany feels like stone age in comparison. And that has almost exclusively cultural reasons: after decades of Nazi and Easy/West split, Germany became brutally cautious around anything involving privacy.
Hopefully this example illustrates that cultural reasons are an important factor in discussing societies, and should not automatically be dismissed as someone having a bias for or against a certain culture.
If someone makes the cultural argument, the onus is on them to provide proof for such an argument.
Please go ahead and give valid reasons why "Indian culture" is not suitable for steady long term economic growth.
There is nothing wrong with saying it’s cultural problems. Look at Africa for instance.
Today India's GDP per capita is roughly half of Malaysia's 1997 GDP per capita. India definitely underperformed but not by the several magnitudes of orders that people assume were AJ Kalam's visions.
I look at Africa and see a continent that was chopped up by colonial powers into borders designed to create social and ethnic conflicts. It was a project to create as many wedges as possible so the colonists could keep power by the ol' divide-and-conquer (which the Brits were pretty apt at). Then you have some of the usual colonial genocides, resource extraction with no further improvements to the source, etc.
It's not cultural if it was designed to create issues, it's such a stupid reduction of a problem that's been entirely manufactured by colonial powers for centuries. Or is that what you are calling "cultural problems" by now?
China might get in a recession, but they’ll remain the second for quite a long time in the next 30 years.
China lies. They lie about their horrific demographics and they lie about their economic growth.
I don’t think that’s enough to unleash the power of the country. The current elite have an outsized influence on the future of country. In the case of China, they might be authoritarian leaders but they have the interests of their country at the front (even though if internal corruption is rampant)
Some go back, or maintain ties, but by and large they're staying where they go.
Here if even a state government changes political parties, the first thing which happens is that the previous government's policies are undone.
that is their leading allegation. the company is overvalued because they say so. (and stocks always trade on fundamentals)
going down the long list of "allegations" every single one is normal business practice for any wealthy individual or large corporation. they own a lot of corporate entities in different jurisdictions and have been accused (but never found guilty of) money laundering and tax evasion. not exactly earth shattering stuff.
i don't know anything about this company, but this report has no substance, and coming from what is essentially a no-name blogger with no significant position to trade on, it is not unreasonable to wonder why reuters, nyt, and bloomberg would be trying to give this credibility.
bloomberg has still never withdrawn their totally fabricated story about supermicro https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2018-10-04/the-big-h... https://www.bloomberg.com/features/2021-supermicro/ https://www.servethehome.com/investigating-implausible-bloom... that story tanked supermicro's stock by 40% at the time, but they are up 500% since then, so obviously that was not a winner.
What is worrisome is that one of the largest lenders to Adani is public sector bank SBI. Another investor is India's largest and state owned insurance company LIC. LIC and SBI have been used as piggy banks by successive governments. A bank in trouble, SBI saves it (Yes bank), state owned company's IPO not doing well? LIC steps into buy it. It's public money which the governments waste on saving their friends. And the irony is public sees nothing wrong in it.