I think he does. And he isn't stupid. He has the potential (due to lack of accounting) to move the needle on when the company is deemed officially financially insolvent. Maybe not, but I think with all the money he has given out, if he can work the narrative and advance the claim that FTX was financially solvent after it actually was, he can keep A LOT of money in a lot of powerful pockets, do 15 years, and be back at it again by age 45.

The choke-point for making this happen is one of several decision makers in the DOJ. Decisions on what to charge (discretion as to what can be proven), decisions to appeal or not, personnel decisions as they relate to competencies and duties, decisions about requests for help and information from other 3 letter agencies, etc etc etc.

It only takes one thumb at one critical juncture to get this guy off with 15 years.