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There is a tradeoff between overprovisioning renewables, improving transmission networks and storage. Where the cheapest solution lies is not clear yet.

Until something adversarial happens to your transmission infrastructure similar to what happened to Nord Stream 1 and 2 a few months ago.

Yes, black swan events happen for all kind of power sources.

Depending on your risk tolerance you overbuild to reduce that. Same as with all types of energy production.

Winter happens at same time in Europe. Unless we're talking shipping all the way from Africa

Offshore wind is already at large scale in N. Europe and will continue to add much more capacity.

Winds are stronger in winter time.

Winter is excellent for wind power.