If the bag had a readable tag and the database wasn't wrong, then it wouldn't be unclaimed, presumably. Not for certain of course, but you gotta imagine the most common error is that the bag lost its tag and now its impossible to find the owner.
I don't think any of your assumptions are founded. If the airline decides the cost to pay out is cheaper than the cost to return, then paying out would be a totally reasonable business decision. Frankly without any more detailed (internal) information, I don't think you should presume such things.
Anyway like I said all of this is speculative. But I find it interesting that you and I have such diametrically opposed viewpoints when it comes to this.
The bag was lost for 9 days, with zero updates on the tracing report. The last update was in the connecting airport. We managed to find it, sitting placed at the destination airport with a few hundred other bags, tags were 100% fine on our bags and the others. At any point someone could have walked through, scanned the bags, and updated the tracing reports. But nobody did.
This isn’t because the tags were ripped off, it’s because it’s Air Canada’s SOP.