I think that is a core part of the difficulty coming up in these discussions.
But that also doesn't imply we should suspect any particular AI of being conscious just because AI in general could be conscious in principle. We don't expect worms to be conscious just because animals can be.
Now I'm not sure it matters. If people imbue their devices with intelligence and emotions then that's what they perceive. I've since learned about Tulpas. Some people have imaginary friends that seem very real to them. People will likely move their Tulpas out of their minds and into their AI's.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tulpa
People on reddit are already talking about Tulpa's and AI
Then some time later as we figure out how consciousness works in the computer - as it is much easier to inspect than a human - and compare the findings with humans to see if they indeed work in a similar way, we will all be a bit disappointed that the solution is much more mundane than we thought or hoped.
How do you know that? To be clear, I totally agree that ChatGPT is not yet there and I also think that scaling it up will not get us there, but I think the gap might be much smaller than most people think.
The way we think is often divided into two categories, for simple things like 1 + 1 you just know the answer, for complicated things things like 13 * 47 we really have to think and reason in steps. ChatGPT seems to do pretty well in the first category but it is not really capable of doing things in the second category. On the other hand I have seen examples of people talking ChatGPT through a reasoning process to arrive at the correct answer for something that it got initially wrong, for example ROT13 encoding some text.
So what if we stuff two copies of ChatGPT into a black box and instead of just spitting out what ever ChatGPT spits out, we let the two copies first have some inner dialog? I don't think it is perfectly obvious how one would do this or what the result would be, but I think ChatGPT has enough basic knowledge that there is at least a chance that one could get it to reason in a step by step fashion.
I hope you realize how silly that sounds.
No, I'm sure it looks like an airplane is flying and being onboard gives the right sensation but until we solve the hard problem of turbulent flows we really don't know if it's flying or not.
but 'written explanations' only really work for done and completed things, or sometimes for future things which we want to repeat; i.e. which are based on things we've done before