Rutgers Finds Shocking 500% Increase in Autism in New York-New Jersey Region | Hacker News Reader

Rutgers Finds Shocking 500% Increase in Autism in New York-New Jersey Region

scitechdaily.com

36 pointsgeox36 comments

Given that there is no objective test for autism, isn't it more likely that a drastic outlier is more the result in subjective differences in diagnosis?

I suspect increased testing &concern in these areas would naturally increase hit rates.

> between 2000 and 2016 among kids without any intellectual disabilities

Considering that in 2000 the idea that a girl without intellectual disabilities could be autistic was rather radical, I guess that "increase" may not necessarily describe the actual growth of measured thing.

I remember as late as 2010 or so watching a documentary on Temple Garandin back when I thought of autism as a serious impairment being kind of fascinated how successful she was despite the condition. Then the phrase “on the spectrum” came out and half of silicon valley claims to have it, as if not being super outgoing or occasionally awkward makes one neurodivergent. I even kicked around the idea I might have it as I enjoy building circuit boards and am not great at certain types of emoting, but have zero sensory issues so am probably just normal nerdy.

There's a lot more reasons to diagnose autism than having sensory issues, but enjoying building circuit boards is not one of them.

That's the problem. There is no clear definition of autism. It seems you can be slightly socially averse or have any obsession(hobby.)

Being slightly socially averse or having a hobby are not signs of autism either. During the screening, you fill a questionnaire with dozens of questions on various matters and only coexistence of many factors may lead to diagnosis.

(that said, being incredibly annoyed at vagueness of these questions is kinda a hint already)

I guess enjoy is not quite right. I find following traces of a board and trying to reverse engineer its function well enough to fix it is strangely calming. Also have been known to read microcontroller datasheets like novels.

Still, while there sure are patterns in what autistic people may find calming and interesting, being autistic in non-autistic society has an imprint on most aspects of one's life. If considering the thought "I may be autistic" doesn't make you go "that would explain so many things I've been confused about in my life!", you're probably not.

What types of autism? High functioning? Severe?

My eldest had high school friends diagnosed with autism who seemed higher functioning than either of my children.

If you liked through, you'd see it was "without intellectual disability." I couldn't find what the data itself was based on, but as I commented above, this is often an approach parents with lawyers use to get accommodations when they don't quite fit into another category. If this is disproportionately a phenomenon of higher income ZIP codes, that's what I'd look at first.

I bet you could model the likelihood of this, seeing if the respondents are enriched for families who are likely to be in communication with each other to some degree (family, friends, neighbors, coworkers, in the same school, etc) or if its not significantly enriched compared to random chance.

My brother was diagnosed with autism to get accommodations for a learning disability that didn’t fit any available diagnoses. The school advised my parents to do this.

As an adult, he is certainly neuro-divergent in a significant way but not autistic. Having extra help in his early grades was absolutely necessary. He’s doing pretty well.

> "High functioning" "Severe"

FYI these terms are considered passe now.

There is no "functioning" scale, and autism is a brain type that includes a spectrum of attributes that differ from median of population, that has no severity. Specific symptoms might have severity.

You need the mental health diagnosis to get access to study drugs and testing accommodations for that extra leg up.

Are those often prescribed for autism? It seems much easier to just fake ADHD — there's practically a whole industry based around this practice.

I'm not sure whether a non-ADHD person can convincingly fake ADHD, at least not without putting huge amounts of effort into it. What's more likely is to find a doctor who doesn't really care and prescribes things without doing proper screening.

Article from a psychiatrist about this:

https://slatestarcodex.com/2017/12/28/adderall-risks-much-mo...

TLDR is that you seem to be right (with the caveat that "a doctor who doesn't really care" seems to describe the majority of doctors)... but that still doesn't really explain why someone would fake autism to get access to amphetamines.

I did a lot of clicking through on this and couldn't find this out, but if the source of the data is at all based on the number of students that get IEPs based on something like autism, then I can tell you that "advocates" and licensed attorneys in special ed can work this. Not saying that's what happened here, or that it would alone explain 500%.

But aren't there systemic reasons in the US that you want a kid with any issues to be diagnosed as autistic, because funding is based on diagnosis rather than need?

The headline is misleading, which is enough to make me want to ignore the rest of the article, and indeed the entire site.

The 500% increase was in the subset of people without major difficulties, so totally expected and not shocking at all.

It's like the count of mild coronavirus cases rising when you start widespread testing rather than only the ones that end up in hospital with related symptoms.

The NIH and the CDC have objectively failed, on pure data. Autism rates were 1 in 2500 in 1980, now 1 in 44. Peanut allergies have tripled. Autoimmune diseases are up 50-100%. Obesity rates have tripled in past 50 years.

At this point, it's either complete incompetence by health regulators, or malice. There are clearly environmental factors at play!

Is it easier to get into university if you have such a diagnose?

I think disability information like that is self reported on college applications anyhow. This could be used to leverage better accommodations once you are in the college, however.

In the US, it is self-reported. School record are private and protected by law. (See FERPA)

Once a student is an adult, only they can release that information. Additionally the parents of a student are not allowed to access records once the student is an adult. (No calling the school to get their kid’s grades.)

For college offices of disability they do need to see some medical documentation confirming your disability.

I wonder if this will help to isolate a causal factor?

COVID-related extended school closures probably didn't help. I've read several anecdotal accounts of kids with autism spectrum disorders regressing horribly during lockdown.

The last year considered by the study was 2016.

If you read the article, you’d see that the timeframe is between 2000-2016. Thus, no connection to Covid.

Autism became a junk drawer classification for anyone weird enough to ruffle feathers.

Reply on news.ycombinator.com