U.S. economy expands at 2.9% annual rate in fourth quarter

And it will eventually. But that's far down the line... prices are still well above the covid era bubble run.

And the easing of financial conditions over the past few months has buoyed the previously declining housing metrics. Markets front ran the recession far too early, which led to the recession not happening. Now Fed likely has to hike even more than they would have otherwise

Don’t forget how housing prices have moved just in the last few months

Otoh unemployment could be artificially low right now due to covid. You had a period of job loss and high unemployment, but along side that you had a period of lower than normal immigration. Meaning the total workers employed today, and in some hypothetical scenario where covid didnt happen and immigration kept pace, could very well be the same. Just with the former unemployment would be low and unemployment would be higher, but the same “pre recession jobs contraction” could be happening.

Fair points. My opinion is best oversimplified would be due to our return to 2019 levels on wages with pricing on maslow items having skyrocketed. Rate changes and housing data keeps me uncomfortable.

Food prices may have come down a little in the last year but they're still almost 2x what they were 2-3 years ago here.

If energy includes gasoline well that is going back up to almost triple the price from 2-3 years ago in my area.

Sure wages may have gone up some (mine did) but I can barely afford this economy now where before I was doing alright.

I think you had a little projection there calling me in a bubble. Why don't we focus on what is actually happening instead discrediting who I am with assumptions.

Wages are stagnant, energy costs are going up.

Hourly Wages change yoy https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=Zeb7

Energy Price Index https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=Zebr

>food prices have come down

False, and before you blame the egg crisis on the reported avian flu, milk and bread demonstrate the same rise. Pick a product, it's gone up, PPI for all commodities shot up indicating macro changes to the economy (in this case reactions to inflation where producers raise rates) https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=Ze8G

eggs https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=Ze80 milk https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=Ze8b bread https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=Ze8h

>housing is crashing

True, but not in ways that helps consumers. Landlords are doubling down and renting. Properties are sitting on market far longer than normal. Median sales price will decrease with interest rate changes, but with the root cause issue unresolved of lack of construction (supply), very large demand as the new generations age, and flippers and renter barons unchecked.. The housing market is not going to be affordable for low, middle, or even upper middle class citizens. I also think this kind of talk completely belittles how massive of a change occurred to housing prices in the last 5 years. Compare that to wage increases and viola, your normal every day person is in bad shape.

median sales price https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=Ze67

Do you want anecdote? People aren't doing well. Go talk to your neighbors. A single corrective change percent movement from GDP reported by Axios is manipulative and a narrative article in my opinion.

> 5 year fixed rate,

Or just buy it outright, with that kind of leverage.

If you time the stock market wrong without leverage, worst case you lose all your money.

Time the housing market wrong and you could rapidly have sizeable negative wealth. Toss in a forced sale in a divorce or something and you've lost both all the money you ever had but also the money you ever will up until bankruptcy filing after which no one but absolute sharks will rent you a place either. At that point MonkeyMalarkey will not be around to point you to the best dumpster to sleep behind...

In the first para, you are optimizing for expected value by not timing the market. In the second para you should not be optimizing for expected value but rather assurity you don't end up sleeping behind the dumpster, so the advice may not be transferrable.

Not sure how its a different issue. Wouldn't a recession have made the home prices affordable.

Your point is what? Biden somehow predicted the future and claimed we are not in recession. Criticism was valid when he made that statement. Not sure why current news will make his previous statement right.

> Prices of houses are coming down due to interest rates.

Not a lot; median sale price nationally dropped $300 from $468k to $467,700 from Q3 2022 to Q4 2022.

> Prices of houses are coming down due to interest rates.

Not where I live. I see markdowns of 10k on a 600k homes. Nothing really changed.