Judicious Prospecting
abstraction.substack.com
abstraction.substack.com
To be a truly good prospector, you're going really need to understand your domain. To extend the metaphor, good prospectors are also world class geologists and they have invested in hugely sophisticated prospecting tools and expertise. Schlumberger does this for oil. They are experts in prospecting, and oil companies across the world use them. That expertise is hard won, requires massive technology investments and NOT cheap.
The “judicious prospecting” mindset is worth balancing against the “really trying” mindset. There are times where both frameworks are useful, but distinguishing one from the other is a challenge...there are a multitude of scenarios where futarchy could shed light on where to best apply effort.