Comment by themodelplumber | Hacker News Reader

Comment by themodelplumber | Hacker News Reader

themodelplumber

We are looking at important MA breaches, an inverse H&S on the S&P (maybe), and potential/ongoing melt-up scenario in markets right now.

You are right to wonder how things will go, because everybody's wondering. You may indeed miss out on big moves if you wait. But also maybe things will stall out and take forever to move up again.

I'd go to localized specifics in your scenario. I'd look for comparative value in a specific home purchase, compare to averages or moving averages of prices _in your area_ and then decide what's a good value from opportunity to opportunity.

Identify your buy-in range, make some offers, see how things go. But I'd keep it very specific and buy something you like at what seems like a good price, all things considered.

I'd stay away from trying to call macro trends because there's not much traction there right now. It could help to look at historical price action in your city though.

you're overthinking it and drowning the discussion in jargon

its very simple - rates are higher, they are going higher still, and they are going to stay high

homes will be a minimum 20% cheaper in 18 months

the Fed is completely focused on reducing asset prices, and they have the tools to produce the outcome they want

Yeah ill believe it when I see it. When eggs double in price in 2 weeks, its hard to believe houses are going to decrease in price over 18 months.

Maybe in real terms when accounting for inflation but the actual dollar value seems destined to go up in spite of interest rates

> When eggs double in price in 2 weeks, its hard to believe houses are going to decrease in price over 18 months

There’s a global avian flu pandemic going on, the worst ever seen. More than 100 million chickens dead. This has almost nothing to do with fiscal policy.

understood but eggs are unique only in the magnitude of the price increase. Every other product under the sun has seen and is still seeing inflation currently. Why would home prices go down in those conditions?

Where I am, it is STILL damn near impossible to get a house bought and that is after enormous increases in interest rates over the last couple years.

I think the Fed are focused on stabilizing prices, not getting them to go down. Deflation is an entirely different beast than inflation and the Fed certainly does not want to deal with that.

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